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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: AEX 8F AXE +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: ADIIMPT 9G IMPI +26 26
#note This choice yields the best leave but the board position could be a little dicey. Best appears to be 9F MIDI - I never saw it, as I saw the ADT leave with this and tunnel vision set in.
>Darrell_Day: IJLT 7C JILT +21 41
>Jim_Burlant: AADGNTT D4 DAT.NG +18 44
#note Or at J6 for 14. Either play is as good as the other. I figured I'd take the points and more open board against Darrell, who tends to shut things down quickly.
>Darrell_Day: EGV E3 VEG +23 64
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEFQTU J8 F.QUE +37 81
#note Statically, this doesn't fare well, as the kibbitzer suggests that I should build a rack around QU?. I saw 37 points, the AT? leave, and that was enough for me. The sim says it's either 10I EF or this. 66% to win.
>Darrell_Day: BOO 8A BOO. +27 91
>Jim_Burlant: ?ARTUUW -UUW +0 81
#note Be serious - what kind of a draw is this from this pool? The problems I saw with this position were numerous: OUTWAR B9 only scores 12 and stops one short of the double-word at 14B with SSSS unseen. AUTEUR barely scores 14, unloads all my bingo prone tiles but keeps the W. And WAUR I12 barely scores 13 and slots the triple with the R. I don't care if I have the blank - it's just reckless to slot a 3x3 for all of 13 points. If I could score high teens or more, I'd play through this crap. My options here all suck, so I figured it was better to exchange. The duck disagrees and I think that, for this position, it is to be taken with a grain - if not the entire shaker - of salt . Quackle says I12 WAUR and AUTEUR 12G are equally strong (58% to win), and that this is my third best choice, winning 2-1/2% less often simming 4 points down. Pfffft. I'd make this play again.
>Darrell_Day: HM K11 HM +28 119
>Jim_Burlant: ?AARSTU 13D dATURAS +76 157
#note Good thing I disregarded the duck on the last turn. Before I threw UUW back into the bag, the first tile I drew was the lone remaining U and I'd either be sitting on UW or UU and still playing for beans. There are no bingoes available down the A column. As for this, it scores the same points at K3 and takes out the easy back hooks down the K column; I played here because I convinced myself IMPI didn't take the S. Time to review the 5's again. Anyway, with absolutely nothing given up points-wise to this, the K3 placement is better for defensive reasons and should have been the play. 61% to win.
>Darrell_Day: DEINZ 12C DIZEN +47 166
>Jim_Burlant: EINOUWY C3 YOW +29 186
#note UW for the second time in three turns? Seriously? Anyway - this is best - 47% to win. K4 YOWIE clears the rack better but scores 2 less and wins 1/2% less often.
>Darrell_Day: AGOTU 8J .UGATO +36 202
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEINU H13 .UE +9 195
#note Q says L12 EAU was the play. Makes sense to some degree...though I see some problems with it. Will drawing three tiles lead to a bingo, or will the third tile be something like a W or Y that kills the rack? Also, knowing Darrell, I expect him to play something like OHO 9L or YOW M9 to kill everything, and with a mostly promising rack, I want to keep the board alive, which this does. Quackle doesn't like this much, but this worked out.
>Darrell_Day: ERR L12 ERR +16 218
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINOR N2 ORDINA.E +72 267
#note Other options are N3 AROINTED, A6 DEBONAIR, and N6 RATIONED, all of which score in the 60's. This scores 72 and is clearly best. 68% to win.
>Darrell_Day: EILNPRT 2H TERPIN.L +62 280
#note Only bingo for Darrell - he's 45% to win, and that's about to fall fast.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEOOSY A4 SOmE.ODY +64 331
#note Mega style points for this choice, but it's not best. Matter of fact, if you miss DYEWOODS which scores 80 at 4H (you have to know it to play it), SOOEY (saw the word but it didn't register with me that it played at 1E) and 4K DOODY (the latter of which I passed on) are better. Not seeing where to play SOOEY and not knowing DYEWOODS, I passed on DOODY because I felt that at this stage, the extra turnover and points were worth sacrificing the equity I was sure would be given up. The sim confirms my hunches: DYEWOODS was definitely best. SOOEY wins 2% less often and sims 5 points down on DYEWOODS. DOODY wins 2% more often and sims 2 poihnts ahead of this choice. I'm 73% to win; DYEWOODS wins 83.
>Darrell_Day: ACEF 1G CAFE +40 320
>Jim_Burlant: EHIILNT K2 .ITH +18 349
#note I saw this and, not having a block for 15L plays, figured I'd try to kill bingo lines; I thought that, with my lead about to go up to 29 points, he was going to need a bingo - even a 60-pointer on rows 5 or 6 - to win, and this play's sole purpose was to kill rows 4 and 5 and add resistance to row 6. If quackle is to be believed, I should just take the equity with 3H THEIN for 37. I'd rather block potential bingos, and EINKORNS on row 6 is a possibility. Whether or not you agree with my choice here, it did work out.
>Darrell_Day: EKSW 15L SKEW +41 361
>Jim_Burlant: ACEILNR 15A RELIANC. +83 432
#note Luck box! The only play that wins 100%. Next best option is LAZAR E10, which wins 58.
>Darrell_Day: ABILNOV L1 V.NA +28 389
>Jim_Burlant: O 5J O. +5 437
#note Any of my top 5 choices score 5 here, and this is one of them. To me, this was one of those games that illustrates that Quackle, while being a useful tool, should not be regarded as an absolute. The RUE play, my decision to exchange...examples where you sometimes have to recognize when equity isn't everything. And SOmEBODY? Yeah, I couldn't help myself. Given that I didn't know DYEWOODS I should have just played SOOEY to prevent his 40-point CAFE.
>Jim_Burlant: (BILS) +12 449
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