| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Mike_Early Mike Early
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Early: DNOWY 8H DOWNY +32 32
>Jim_Burlant: BGIORUX 9G BOX +43 43
#note To me it was either this or GOX in the same spot. I chose this not just for the extra points, but with the open N, keeping the G is okay. Quackle indicates that, while this is very strong, there was another chioce available that was also worth consideration: RUBIGO 7E. It scores 27, unloads all the garbage, and most importantly, guarantees a 50+ X bomb on the next turn. There's a lot to be said for that one, but I never saw it. As for how it sims, even past 1000 2-ply iterations the sim is toggling back and forth between this choice and RUBIGO. GOX trails by roughly a point and less than 1% winning chances.
>Mike_Early: AACEILT K7 A.ALCITE +70 102
#note If I put down RUBIGO on the last turn, does he find TAILRACE?
>Jim_Burlant: BGIRRTU L4 RUGB. +26 69
#note 7F GRUB scores 30 - I never saw it. GRUB wins 29.6% - this wins 28 and sims 4 points down.
>Mike_Early: LNOO 10F NOLO +24 126
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINRT 13F NITRA.ED +72 141
#note 11A bingoes (TRAINED, ANTIRED) score 74 but slot the triple; this scores 72 and is the highest scoring option I have that doesn't slot the triple. Quackle thinks I should play at 11A for only 2 more points. Seriously? The only thing I can assume is that it thinks I need to open the A column to compensate for the S hook on row 15. Maybe in the duck's eyes, but I still think that's reckless. I'd make this play again. 48% to win.
>Mike_Early: PZ 12J Z.P +47 173
>Jim_Burlant: EELRTTU 12D ELUTE +19 160
#note Board blindness strikes again: these same tiles score 3 more at 11D. Quackle prefers 11E LUTE for20. I'm fine not leaving the E front hook (too probable he takes it out before me, even if I do have an E in my rack), but I should have looked on row 11.
>Mike_Early: FHO 13B FOH +23 196
>Jim_Burlant: DEEERTV 4H REVE.TED +65 225
#note Only bingo. Back up to 52% winning chances.
>Mike_Early: AEG O1 GAE. +18 214
>Jim_Burlant: FGOPRSY 15H PROSY +53 278
#note Any number of strong choices, and they're all variations on the same theme: the play is to take out the ANALCITE back hook. None of the available choices offers a leave that is remotely bingo prone, so I chose this to max out the points. Quackle agrees - this is best. Other choices include GORSY, 14J SEPOY. N2 POESY also worth consideration.
>Mike_Early: ADEIINT 1H IDEATIN. +83 297
>Jim_Burlant: AAFGHII 2J HAAF +40 318
#note Not thrilled about keeping duplicated I's but this scores 40 and I don't have an option that unloads an I that scores more than 28. I'm going to have to grind it, and Quackle agrees.
>Mike_Early: OVW 3G VOW +28 325
>Jim_Burlant: GIIMQST 12A QI +26 344
#note DOL front hooks on row 7 never registered with me after he put down NOLO. I mention that because QI also scores 26 at 7G and doesn't give back a potential tRAN(Q) 8A. And the 7G placement will also block any 7's down the F column. As for Quackle's take, I understand the duck's intent. With both blanks and a reasonable balance of AEINRSU unseen, it wants me to chase a blank by playing MISFIT B10 for 34, holding GQ. And if I draw an I following MISFIT I've got QI A14 for 50 on my next turn. That said, I don't see a good reason to give him a place to play for 80+ down the A column. While there are currently bingo lines, the only lines available (the F column, rows 5 and 7, and the N column) score in the low 70's at best and open things up for me in return. If I open the A column it could score 80+ and clinch the game. This play wins 1% less often and sims 1-1/2 points down on 7G QI,which loses to B10 MISFIT by a hair. I'm guessing that result means that, given the unseen pool, it thinks that not sealing off the F column and possibly giving him tRANQ for 39 only increases his winning chances by 1%, so maybe those aren't the big threats I think they are? Or is the sim underestimating them? Regardless - if I had it to do again, I'd play 7G QI. I do think my play was a bit of a mistake; Quackle thinks it's minor, and I think it might have been a little more substantial than Quackle thinks. Regardless this doesn't hurt me in the end so I did get lucky.
>Mike_Early: AIKN F2 KAIN +28 353
>Jim_Burlant: EGIMMST E4 MIG +20 364
#note Best statically, but the sim is another story. Again, Quackle wants me to play with fire by playing 6A GIMMES. The rest of the options are variations on the same theme: play at E4 . This saved the game for me, as you'll see in a second. I'm 47% to win.
>Mike_Early: CEIINSU 7E SIC +15 368
#note His rack - MIG blocked CUISINE. Both of us have winning chances that are under 50% because the blanks are unseen. If Quackle is to be believed, Mike's best play is B10 UNIFIC for 26.
>Jim_Burlant: ELMRSST B11 R..S +14 378
#note I saw RESMELTS N3 but wasn't sure about it - was RESMELT the past tense of having smelled again? Or was it smelting metal again? Not being sure, I felt it was too late in the game and the game was too close to risk putting it down. Too bad, as it is good, scores 70, and wins 72%. No clue what to do in the absence of the bingo. If quackle is to be believed I should chase the blank with 2B SMERK or B10 STIFLE. Fortunately, a poor draw by Mike ensures that I can't lose this game.
>Mike_Early: AER D3 EAR +19 387
>Jim_Burlant: ?EJLMST 2B JET +24 402
#note Best play.
>Mike_Early: ?EINOUU 3A tON. +19 406
#note As good as anything else for Mike.
>Jim_Burlant: ?LMS N3 M.aLS +12 414
#note N3 HELMS scores 13.
>Jim_Burlant: (EIUU) +8 422
#note Outside of chickening out on a bingo that I wasn't sure of - which is the decision I had to make given the stage of the game and the score at that time - the only play that might have been a real mistake - that I really didn't pay for -was my placement of QI, and the sim says it would have only hurt me 1% of the time. The rest of the misses (RUGBY instead of GRUB, ELUTE for 19 instead of 22) were minor imperfections. In short, this about the best I was capable of doing.
|
