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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
>Jim_Burlant: FIINOOU -FIIOOU +0 0
#note Yuck. I considered FOU 8G and INFO/FINO as well before opting to exchange. I couldn't wrap my arms around keeping IOU with INFO/FINO. Regarding FOU, I felt that the IINO leave was too likely to get ugly and it wasn't worth it to play through for only 12 points. Quackle agrees with me that exchanging was correct. For reasons I can't explain, I threw both I's back in; there's no reason not to keep an I here. Best is to exchange 5 keeping IN; this wins 1/2% less often and sims 1-1/2 points down.
>Chris_Cree: FOU 8G FOU +12 12
#note I had to chuckle when he put this down, considering what I'd just thrown back into the bag.
>Jim_Burlant: BEJNNTX I7 J.N +19 19
#note Sad but true: I never saw NEXT 9F. This has the advantage of adding resistance to the J column, and it actually is my second best choice. But NEXT should have been the play.
>Chris_Cree: AGLO J5 GAOL +23 35
>Jim_Burlant: BENNPTX -BNPX +0 19
#note My brain couldn't process this and all I saw was plays like AGENT or GENT; again, sad but true, I never saw what should have been the blatantly obvious 6J ANNEX. While I'm not justifying my choice to exchange, what's interesting about the sim is that it says that if I was going to make this sort of mistake, this was the position in which to do it. Despite giving up 28 scoreboard points, I don't even sacrifice 3% winning chances and not even 5 equity. Why? ANNEX gives up the E back hook, and 11 E's are unseen. ANNEX leaves me BPT, which is essentially garbage. If I play ANNEX, practically any collection of clunk on his end scores at least 40+ if he has an E. And if he hits big down the O column on the next turn and I have a bad draw, the game could get away from me in a hurry. With my exchanging, he doesn't have much to work with unless he can front hook FOUL and any bingo he does hit won't score more than the low 70's.
>Chris_Cree: ?BCLMRV -?BCLMR +0 35
>Jim_Burlant: AAENORT K5 OAT +24 43
#note I finally got one right. K3 ATONE also worth consideration, but this is best. 50% to win.
>Chris_Cree: ABW L3 WAB +22 57
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINRR G6 IN.RARED +66 109
#note Lots of style points for this, but the pedestrian F6 DRAINER scores 72 and doesn't open up all the hot spots this does. I never recognized the front A hook when FOU became (FOU)L. Whoops.
>Chris_Cree: ADEGPU 11D UPG.ADE +22 79
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEIMN F5 EME +23 132
#note Lots of options that all score in the mid 20's. Best is apparently to slot the triple by playing at 12J or 10J with MEANIE. But this isn't bad at all, as it does take away the easy X bomb at F6. 65% to win.
>Chris_Cree: AEHVY 10J HEAVY +43 122
>Jim_Burlant: AEFHINT E5 HAFT +41 173
#note M2 FEH keeps a more balanced AINT but only scores 33, where this play scores 41. The sim takes a few hundred iterations to start sorting out. FEH is a very strong runner up, but this is best.
>Chris_Cree: EKQU L8 QU.KE +56 178
>Jim_Burlant: AEINOTW M3 OW +25 198
#note Strong choice, but not best - H1 TOWNIE scores 36 but, more importantly, turns 6 tiles - critical with both blanks still unseen. I saw 25, the AEINT leave with all the unseen S's and R's and stopped looking. This is 51% to win, and TOWNIE wins 56.
>Chris_Cree: DOOR 13L DOOR +30 208
>Jim_Burlant: ACEINTT N1 TETANIC +84 282
#note The only other bingo is TENACITY N3, which scores 77. This scores 84 and is best. 82% to win in a short sim.
>Chris_Cree: ERTV 12A VERT +26 234
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEEIIX 1K EXI.s +57 339
#note I did not auto-pilot this. I gave serious consideration to AXE H11 for 38, as I not only wanted to preserve the blank, but I didn't like creating an easy line for a 7 on row 2 (which came back to haunt me later). I normally would value the blank at 27 or 28 points, which means that, on that basis, I should have played for 38. But with EEEII in my rack and 5 I's still unseen I felt I had to unload at least one of each of them. And, let's not forget that the T at N1 is a juicier 3x3 threat than the V at A12. With all that to consider, I chose this. The sim confirms it's either this or aXITE, and burning the blank for only 19 extra points is the correct call. And given his next rack, I would have been in serious trouble had I played anywhere other than row 1.
>Chris_Cree: ?ADEINP 14A PANDIEs +84 318
#note Good thing for me I played where I did; DEPAINTs would have scored 149. This is the best play for Chris, but he's still only winning 15%.
>Jim_Burlant: CEEIIYZ O11 EY.IE +36 375
#note Best - 90% to win in a short sim. 15A EYE also is good. Given how I got confused as to what I should have done on the next turn, maybe EYE would have helped me out a lot more despite the unbalanced leave.
>Chris_Cree: LLORS 4A ROLLS +23 341
>Jim_Burlant: BCIIMNZ C3 C.IMB +28 403
#note Looking at this pool, what's the threat? A row 15 bingo like LIGROINE if he doesn't have an S? Something through the O? Something on row 2? The R in ROLLS never registered with me as a threat and I thought the open vowel was the most likely target, so I addressed that by putting this down. When I saw this, I thought it had to be right: it scored 28, left me ZIN for 35 for the next turn (unless I had to block row 15 with ZIN(E)), and left one in the bag. Championship Player thinks this is best, but Quackle misses the mark here. Quackle implicitly concedes that Chris might bingo a fraction of the time and bases its analysis on what it thinks is most likely to maximize spread in the instances where he can't. The reality here is that I need to trade equity to eliminate as many of his bingo opportunities as I can, and guarantee that I can't eat the Z if the worst case pans out. What I figured out post-mortem is that the only play that really works here is B3 ZOMBI 24 (Quackle hates it), which I never saw. While ZOMBI short-changes me some equity in that I don't get ZIN for 35 for the impending end game, the bigger thing is that, where CLIMB only takes out columns B and C, ZOMBI takes out A, B, and C and I'm in better defensive position and unloads the Z. My inability to find ZOMBI lost me the game, as you'll see in a second.
>Chris_Cree: GINOSSU 6J ..S +12 353
#note His actual rack - SOUSING doesn't play. We figured out that, at the time I put down CLIMB, the bag consisted of ILRST. He fished the S off looking for the T; if he draws the T he can't lose, otherwise he can't win. Even with my mistake, given that I had drawn 4 tiles, I had an 80% chance of landing the T, which meant he had a 20% chance of winning the game. And watch what happens...
>Jim_Burlant: IILNRSZ 8A LIS +21 424
#note Bad play by me on the previous turn...amplified by even worse luck. I left the T in the bag, and I'm toast. I have to play this or INS 8A; If I take the 35 for ZIN, he hits OUTRINGS FOR 131. This saves 33 points of spread.
>Chris_Cree: GINOSTU 2E OUTINGS +66 419
>Chris_Cree: (INRZ) +26 445
#note Even with the mistakes I made on turns 2 and 3, this one came down to my inability to recognize the threat and make the right play when I put down CLIMB.
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