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#player1 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Jackson_Smylie: II -II +0 0
#note Last game of the tournament and Jackson wants to stop my streak.
>Joshua_Sokol: BEJNOTU H4 JUNTO +40 40
>Jackson_Smylie: ACDEEST 5F ED.CATES +72 72
>Joshua_Sokol: BEEILOQ M3 QI. +24 64
>Jackson_Smylie: DTZ 4L D.TZ +54 126
#note It took Jackson a while to play this. It gives back a ton a lot of the time.
>Joshua_Sokol: BCEELOR 8G B.RECOLE +63 127
#note So the most important move of the game has already come. I saw BORECOLE, CROZE and CLOZE. I missed ZEBEC. I knew BER and BEL were worth a few points, which makes CLOZE/CROZE a bit better than 48, but not as much as 63. I was also pretty sure Jackson would challenge. I knew this wasn't in his range and that he knew it wasn't something I would have studied, since I don't study random 8s. I also knew that not taking the Z spot was already very dangerous and that simply tying the game wouldn't work out for me unless I got a lucky draw of another bingo or if I drew the X. I therefore decided that since I thought Jackson was likely to challenge, I would have not one, but two shots at ??SSSX. I inferred that Jackson would have played D(I)TZ a bit quicker if he had a blank or an S, and that therefore I had a very good shot at pluralizing BORECOLE before he could. This is probably one of the "crazy ideas" Noah Walton thinks I have but I stand by it. I think that if Jackson doesn't have an S and challenges, this play is clearly best. Of course, it's dependant on two unknown factors rather than one, but putting BORECOLE where I put it increases the chances of him challenging, and if he's going to challenge, unless his reason being that he has an S or two on his rack or something requiring that BORECOLE be valid, my placement is certainly better.
In short, I made this play because 1) I knew my chances of winning weren't very strong, 2) I was confident that Jackson would challenge and 3) I was confident that I was more likely to draw SSS?? than he was and that he didn't have one of those on his rack.
Even without an inferred challenge, B(O)RECOLE wins Quackle's sim, barely ahead of BOREC(O)LE, 3% higher than (Z)EBEC and 4% higher than CLO(Z)E and CRO(Z)E, who are oscillating as well. This was a many ply sim, done with 4000+ iterations. My best play only sims at 39%.
Elise, after 6000 6 ply/4 thread sims where Jackson's rack distribution is guessed thinks that 8C BOREC(O)LE wins 41,2% of the time, compared to 40,2% for B(O)RECOLE. The other plays also sim considerably lower. Elise thinks that Jackson is most to least likely to have EAILUBNGRVOSDPTW?FHYKXM. Without the inference, 8C is .5% better.
>Jackson_Smylie: EEG - +0 126
#note Jackson challenged. I think he should have taken longer to realize that I had other viable options as well.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIINTU M7 A.UNITE +18 145
#note I was obviously pretty unhappy with this draw, but I tried my best to draw SSS?? once more. This is winning the Quackle sim. I would think I need to use as many tiles as possible here.
>Jackson_Smylie: EEG O1 GEE. +42 168
>Joshua_Sokol: EFGIIRW 6B GRIEF +34 179
#note Good grief! No luck thus far! :P
I'm pretty sure this is the best play again, unless I should go for WIFI(N)G 10I for a decent leave or F2 WIF(E) to maximize bingoing chances instead of going for SSS??.
>Jackson_Smylie: KOS O6 KOS +60 228
#note He... He drew an S after playing off 3 tiles... and I didn't after playing 18...
Meh, what can I say? My plan failed even though I was, in reality, 6 times more likely to draw SSS?? and cash in around 60 points than he was. Was B(O)RECOLE really a huge mistake? Even if it was, I think that what happened in this game was highly improbable. I know for a fact that Jackson drew the S after GEEZ and therefore didn't have what I was going for when he challenged my bingo, as I inferred. In total, he has, before this play, drawn 22 tiles out of the bag compared to my 32 and drawn SS.
On a lighter note, I was staring Jackson down while he was playing this and acting like I was impatiently awaiting him hitting the clock, and he really hesitated to do so, hoping that BORECOLE was, in fact, a noun.
>Joshua_Sokol: BHILMOW 6J HOW +39 218
#note He had the X and said he was annoyed that I persisted in closing all of the X hotspots.
>Jackson_Smylie: DIVX 4D VID +21 249
>Joshua_Sokol: ?BIILMV L11 MIB +26 244
#note I didn't see any decent options that didn't give much back. I had also mistracked a bit and thought that there were a lot of I's unseen and that Jackson had I trouble, in which case this is a better play than it actually was.
>Jackson_Smylie: FGNUX 11J FU..NG +24 273
>Joshua_Sokol: ?EILOTV 14F VIOLETs +76 320
#note I think this was my largest blunder of the game. As well as scoring the most of what I saw, I thought that this was also more defensive and positively board-shaping than the other option I was considering, VIOLaTE 12D. I missed OuTLIVE 12D and OVEr(G)ILT B2. I'm thinking that OuTLIVE is a better option because of what I mistakenly gave Jackson with VIOLETs. The sim agrees, and even slightly prefers VIOLaTE over OuTLIVE, despite the 2 point difference in score.
>Jackson_Smylie: IX 15H XI +56 329
#note I was a bit unhappy when I realized my mistake.
>Joshua_Sokol: EIMRSWY O11 .RIMY +36 356
#note I felt the need to score as much as possible since WRY/BY opened A(WRY) and the score was close and the board unclosable.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?AAANNS 9B zANANAS +76 405
#note I always forget JUNTO takes the S as well as JUNTA, so I held this. At least I didn't challenge.
>Joshua_Sokol: DENORSW 10E WO +16 372
#note I wasn't quite sure what the right way to go about this deficit was. I had still mistracked the I's and thought I had a good chance at drawing one and playing an ING word. I think I had to score with ROWED 10C instead of playing this. I was down 49, so it was still possible to outscore. This was another obvious mistake. Maybe playing WRON(G) would divert Jackson away from the only viable lanes on the board or permit me to draw a lucky W bingo next turn, but it seems like trying to outscore is the best way to win. I can always make an S setup play if I get the chance.
>Jackson_Smylie: EPRT 11D PERT +27 432
>Joshua_Sokol: ADEHNRS 12C HAD +30 402
#note This gives me the best shot at the win.
>Jackson_Smylie: OP 13C OP +25 457
>Joshua_Sokol: ENORSUY 14A OYES +28 430
#note 7E RYO(T). Missed it.
>Jackson_Smylie: AAAILLR C3 LAA.I +20 477
#note 2 off of 12G ALL.
>Joshua_Sokol: ENRU 15A RE +17 447
>Jackson_Smylie: ALR E1 LAR. +4 481
#note Or 10A LAR for 6 more.
>Jackson_Smylie: (NU) +4 485
#note Congrats, Jackson. This was a cool game.
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