| Player 1 |
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#player1 JD JD
#player2 Friends Friends
>JD: AEFHIOO 8H OHIA +14 14
#note mike and I were both a little bit distracted by the end of the packers-niners game. first off, this placement is wrong. OHIA belongs at 8F. opening into the double-double lane is rarely correct when avoidable. This is also the wrong play. HOOF at 8F or 8G win by 5 points. the details are instructive - my bingo percentage is actually higher keeping AEI than EFO. vowel-consonant balance early in the game is really a matter of being able to draw your way into a bingo, but a high-point consonant can cripple your leave more than an extra vowel in some cases.
>Friends: DDENY 9H NEDDY +25 25
>JD: ?EEFFNO 10B OFFENcE +69 83
#note I realized about 20 seconds later that I had a shot at playing a word I may never get to play again - ENFEOFF!
>Friends: QU J6 QU.. +34 59
>JD: ALORTTU C10 .LOUT +16 99
>Friends: ADEIRW E5 WEARI.D +44 103
>JD: AHJNRTU D1 JUNTA +45 144
#note this board is more open than I want it to be, but so it goes. ENFEOFF would've helped make things clunkier.
>Friends: EGY 5I GEY +29 132
>JD: AADHMRU 1A HAD. +45 189
>Friends: ?AINSST 15A INSTArS +80 212
>JD: AMNRRSU D10 .ARM +30 219
>Friends: IX F6 XI +52 264
>JD: ENPRSSU L8 S.RUP +31 250
#note did not spot unsex which is better in static, but this is a better play because it creates a great lane for my s.
>Friends: GIM M11 MIG +20 284
>JD: AELNOSV 8A VALO. +27 277
#note I can tack on the S (actually was thinking about VALSE at 14J which sucks) but keeping that case S is really nice for strategic purposes down the road, especially because I'm behind a little.
>Friends: EIWZ 3B WI.ZE +34 318
>JD: BEEKNOS 4K BONK +27 304
#note trying to create problems for him long term by creating an S hook. BEN at B13 wins the sim by about 4 points, which surprises me. the advantage is all due to the EKNOS scoring more points next turn. the only thing I can see is the potential for KELSON/KEELSON, which I don't think is good enough to merit sacrificing the points. I am confused. bingo percentage higher after bonk as well.
>Friends: CIP 2F PIC +23 341
>JD: EEEELNS I1 LEE +12 316
#note thought of both leke and neume, but leke gives away my advantage and neume also allows mike to potentially weaken both of my lanes at once with a smart play at N2.
>Friends: AIORRTT N12 TOR +14 355
#note mike's actual rack, he was pretty stumped and figured he would try to set up for a counter-bingo in case I bingoed. this also leaves 7 in the bag. the sim, inferring an S, suggests that this is pretty valid reasoning, since he bingoes 20% of the time next turn. however, TOIT at 14E is the one play that sims close to TOR. Though the leave is worse, it scores enough to catch it up, and it doesn't give me nearly as many cheap points as TOR (which is the least defensive play). as it turns out NEUME would've given him much easier plays to make - RETORT most notably.
>JD: CEEELNS 14B E. +8 324
#note I made my play because I have a great chance of hitting LICENSE/ENCLOSE/CLEANSE, all of which fit beautifully at the bottom (crenels only fits on column O). I had already been planning on my play before he made his. Quackle presents one alternative worth considering: LEKE at N2, which becomes a reasonable option because he created the lane on row 15. I think it's reasonable to assume that I have to bingo to win. As the board stands, LEKE leads to a 48% bingo percentage, while EN/ET gives 8/14 (6/14 if you think he blocks crenels next turn). But it may be better to consider his responses. Literally all bingos I could draw fit at row 15, so his best block will affect row 15. if he just plays on row 15, he blocks 2 of my 39 potential bingo racks - ACINOSE and OBSCENE. However, the key is if he has the last E and plays at O13 - in which case now only 16 of my 39 draws actually work! If you do the percentages, I think my bingo chances are about 43% for ET/EN and 40-41% for LEKE. The one additional factor to consider is that he can play an -ATER word in the worst case scenario, in which case he blocks all of my plays with CEELNS and most but not all with CENS - in other words, the bingo percentage is just about even. When all's said and done, perhaps the extra points scored by playing LEKE make it slightly more likely that I'll end up winning the relevant games after bingoing - so maybe LEKE is the play.
>Friends: AIRTTV O8 VITTA +34 389
>JD: CEEILNS 15I SILENCE +86 410
>Friends: ABEGORR 14H REBAR +29 418
#note mike made this play too fast. I was low on time as usual but he had about 1:30 left. I saw LABORER but did not spot his win - BROKAGE at N1 for a spread of 1.
>JD: O K8 ..O +6 416
>JD: (GO) +6 422
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