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#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Nigel Nigel
>Noah: AAEGITT 8B AGITATE +68 68
>Nigel: BCFNOYZ B7 F.NCY +19 19
#note Nigel provided his racks for this game.
>Noah: DDLNOTV H5 VOT.D +9 77
#note Thought about VOTED, VOLED, VOLTI. Didn't think of VELD/VELDT. I didn't play VOLED because DLN looked better than DNT to me, especially considering the UNDEVOTED draw. Well, apparently that's UNDEVOTED* Quackle's leave evaluator slightly prefers DNT. I played this over VOLTI because the leave was better and I liked blocking the E and AGITATE hooks here. VELD/VELDT are interesting. I think I prefer VELDT to VELD because the T setup for myself is pretty weak and VELDT scores one more and keeps a leave that is a bit nicer, while not making a T setup for Nigel. I think I like VELDT more than VOLED, because it blocks more lanes and, according to a simulation, has more equity. The (VELDT)S hook could be annoying, but it's not that worst thing, so VELDT looks good.
>Nigel: BEEMOUZ D4 ZOMB.E +38 57
>Noah: ?DHLMNO F7 H.NDLOoM +73 150
#note Wasn't sure about this play. I considered HOMeLAND, HANDLOoM, HANDLoOM, and HM E5. I guess I decided this was too many points to pass up to keep DLNO?. The advantage of HM, of course, is that it leaves open fewer lanes and also row E, where Nigel can simultaneously score and open the board. It doesn't give up such a volatile S hook, like HANDLOoM. HOMeLAND also does these things, and though it still opens an S hook, it is not as volatile as HANDLOoM's. In the game, I wasn't sure how to weigh all these factors, so I went with HANDLOoM. I still don't know what the right play is.
>Nigel: AAEFGOU E3 OAF +33 90
>Noah: IIOSSWX G13 XI +37 187
#note I thought about SIX 15F as well. This is riskier, but it seemed like IOSSW would help me score very well over the next turn or two on this board. A 4-ply sim agrees with this evaluation, but also shows that XI has only a small equity advantage. Given that, I think I should've played SIX. XI usually works out better for me than SIX, but I think it also creates more disaster scenarios, where Nigel scores very well or bingos on row 15. At this score then, SIX is probably the play.
>Nigel: AEEGKLU 2A KUGEL +27 117
#note KLEAGLE is available here.
>Noah: IOSSTTW H12 WOST +47 234
>Nigel: AAEGNOR A1 O.A +21 138
>Noah: EIJNOST 15A JOINTS +56 290
#note Thought about JOINTS and JOT. Given the available lines and score, JOINTS seemed better.
>Nigel: AAEGNRW 1C AW +21 159
>Noah: DEEIRSV 3E .VERSIDE +64 354
#note With a roughly 200-point lead, it seemed like OVERSIDE 6H would be more dangerous for me than 3E. I'm not sure how to figure out whether this is really correct.
>Nigel: AEGNORU 2J AERUGO +27 186
>Noah: AEELNNS O1 E.N +9 363
#note Time is running low here. I made this play because it seemed alright and I wanted to block the 3x3. Cool plays I missed are NAL(oXO)NE and NE 4G. If I see those plays, do I make them? It depends on how important spread is, I think. This is a 10-game tournament and I'm currently tied with Conrad and Rafi with 2-0 and high spread. Spread seems reasonably important here, then. Of EON/ELAN/NONE/NAN, NONE has the highest equity in a sim. NALoXONE has the highest overall equity by far, but are you willing to sacrifice a little win percentage here for that extra spread? I think I am, as even 3x3s through the O don't put Nigel out of the woods yet, and after AERUGO he has an essentially random rack, making such a play unlikely..
>Nigel: ?IINRTU 9H .UI +5 191
#note TRIUNITy is available.
>Noah: AEEHLNS 8J HANSEL +35 398
#note Again, playing quickly. This seemed okay. HE 4K seems alright though, blocking the double double lane and keeping a strong leave. It doesn't open up the NSEL for him to work with. Seems better than what I played.
>Nigel: ?IINPRT K5 PIR.TINg +91 282
>Noah: BEEIRRU 1G BIER +21 419
#note Not sure here. Leaving one in the bag and keeping the U seemed decent, was about as far as I could get here. If you're looking to score well this turn and next turn, BIER seems strong. Maybe REI 4G, but I don't see a big need to keep the B or play one less tile. The other consideration is blocking. BIER blocks some of Nigel's plays, but there are also bingos. gIBER blocks bingos pretty effectively. Out of 792 possible racks for Nigel, I'd make an estimate of a bit fewer than 200 racks that he bingos with. (counting ACEIQLY, e.g., as 4 separate racks in this calculation, thanks to AAEE in this pool) If a bingo is around 40 more points than his average score with other racks, this means I'd be reducing his average score by 10 points or so. But gIBER scores 7 less, and seems to give Nigel better non-bingo options through the E and O. So BIER and gIBER seem like close plays, with these very rough estimates. As it turns out, these estimates are pretty bad. According to a sim (which should be accurate here), BIER lets Nigel bingo less than 10% of the time. Thinking about my estimate, it was basically just guessing, when maybe it could've been more refined. For starters, he can't bingo more than 5/12 of the time, because the rest of the time he has the Q. Then I could base estimates off the starting bingo average of about 1/8. Excepting the Q, I'll estimate the pool and board to be about 3 times better than average for bingos. That leads to about a 17% chance of bingoing. Still pretty off, and still the last part of the estimate was pretty crude, but it wasn't a complete guess. I should practice these things more often!
>Nigel: Q 6J Q. +31 313
>Noah: ACEPRRU M8 .UPERCAR +76 495
>Noah: (ADEEILY) +22 517
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