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#player1 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
#player2 Matt_Canik Matt Canik
>Paul_Holser: AWXY 8G WAXY +34 34
>Matt_Canik: AEILNQT 7F QAT +21 21
#note I've been keeping this annoying stat in my head:
Starting with nationals, I've bingoed on my first move in 2 of my 48 games (this includes games where I go first or second). I should be ~12-13% to bingo when playing first and about ~16-18% when playing 2nd. I have not missed a first turn bingo in this span. I didn't bingo on my first turn a single time this tournament, extending the streak to 57 games.
I got so excited to pull AEILNT, then turned over my 7th tile to see Q. Goddamn.
>Paul_Holser: ABP 9F BAP +20 54
>Matt_Canik: EILNOOS J8 .O +5 26
#note I picked this over BO for 6 because pretty much any play he makes along K to block gives me L, and YOK/YOW, should he have those, give me good 2x2 draws.
>Paul_Holser: EPTW 10J WEPT +34 88
>Matt_Canik: EILNORS 11D NEROLIS +74 100
#note But I miss the 2x2. I'm more excited that I 1) actually had that foresight and 2) still bingoed.
>Paul_Holser: CENOR 12B CRONE +22 110
>Matt_Canik: ADEITVV L8 VA.ID +30 130
#note Sweet, I missed VI(C)ED.
>Paul_Holser: GINY H11 .YING +39 149
>Matt_Canik: AEGKTVZ 13G Z.G +25 155
#note I like how often this pulls into (V)IVA. If nothing else, I still have VA(N).
Q suggests GA(N)EV.
>Paul_Holser: FRU B12 .URF +18 167
>Matt_Canik: AEIKTTV 8L .IVA +30 185
>Paul_Holser: AGU 14E GUA. +18 185
>Matt_Canik: CEEKTTT 15A E.T +18 203
#note I'd play T(A)CKET if I knew it.
>Paul_Holser: ADN 6H AND +14 199
>Matt_Canik: BCEKLTT O6 BL.CK +13 216
#note What should I do here? I picked this because it gave me a lot of pulls at a blank Sim likes T(A)CKLE even more.
>Paul_Holser: IM 6M MI. +9 208
>Matt_Canik: EEJMSTT 5L JET +16 232
>Paul_Holser: ?EEINST 15H .ENTIlES +77 285
#note Meep.
>Matt_Canik: AEEMOST L3 TA. +20 252
#note I've got to try something to get this open now.
>Paul_Holser: DI M3 ID.. +21 306
>Matt_Canik: EEHMOOS 10D OHO +25 277
#note Chose this over HOMO because it allows me to play M(ONO) soon, which is going to be really tough for him to effectively shut off. Should I play HEME for 34 and try to score my way back into this? Even when there are three more Os unseen?
>Paul_Holser: EO 14J OE +10 316
>Matt_Canik: EEHMRSS 14N HE +22 299
>Paul_Holser: EN O6 .....EN +16 332
>Matt_Canik: EIMORSS D9 M... +6 305
#note I only saw RISSOLE as a possibility to draw here to *actually* bingo in this spot, but I think I just have to open it now and see what he can do about the spot.
>Paul_Holser: LR 3L ..RL +4 336
>Matt_Canik: EIORSSU J5 O. +3 308
#note His last play is really bad news for me. He played it almost immediately, too. The only circumstances that make that an autopilot play are when he's sitting on LLRR?, and probably another consonant or two. From the information I've just gathered, I'm pretty sure he's bingo-prone.
This play limits his bingo chances while maximizing mine- I bingo on 4 if I draw anything except ILOR, and I bingo at C if I draw EF, or blank.
O(N) for 2 1 space over makes it exceptionally easy for him to bingo, and when I'm assuming he probably has LR? on his rack, that's not something I want to do.
>Paul_Holser: F 4K F.. +7 343
>Matt_Canik: EIRSSUU C5 ISSUE +12 320
#note The tables have pretty dramatically turned. No matter what's in the bag, he will have DARIOLE C3.
ISSUE blocks all bingo racks excepd ADEILR?. I thought about playing SURE in this spot instead, because I couldn't see anything that fit beside it, but I didn't have the time to look through every possible bingo in every possible rack. Quackle lists ISSUE has the highest-grossing move by 23 points, with SURE 2nd and everything else at least -115.
I eventually went with ISSUE, but in doing so I forgot the Golden Rule of Scrabble:
>Paul_Holser: ?ADEILR 4C tRAILED +71 414
#note If your opponent needs an extremely improbable thing to occur, then that extremely improbable event will always occur.
>Paul_Holser: (ORU) +6 420
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