| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 John_Redding John Redding
>Jim_Burlant: AFLLNYZ 8G LAZY +32 32
#note Interestingly, Q says this choice isn't a no-brainer. 8G FLY is apparently just as strong in the sim.
>John_Redding: AAW 9G AWA +28 28
>Jim_Burlant: BEFHLNT J4 HEFT. +22 54
#note Despite how open the board is with this, I don't have much choice. The garbage has to be dumped. Quackle agrees - this is best.
>John_Redding: GHU F6 HUG +33 61
>Jim_Burlant: BEGLNNO E3 BELON +21 75
#note Considered this, BELON K1, and BEG 10G. I passed on BEG because there weren't enough scoreboard points available to justify the LNNO leave. K1 BELON only scored 2 more points than this - not enough to justify slotting the triple. Why not BONE K3 (the sim winner)? I never saw it, as I was fixated on unloading the L. This is a very strong play (sim runner up, winning 0.43% less often and simming 0.8 points down) but K3 BONE was best.
>John_Redding: AITX 10G TAXI +41 102
>Jim_Burlant: GLNNQST -GLNQ +0 75
#note Coming on the heels of John's last two plays, my having to throw this back in the bag gave me a very bad feeling about where this game was going. As for this position, it's obviously an exchange situation: I don't have a Q play and the only available dump is GLEN at 5H or 4C for 10 which still saddles me with the Q. The sim says this is the best exchange; championship player says I should throw in 5 and just keep ST. Perhaps, but this worked regardless.
>John_Redding: DIV K3 VID +25 127
>Jim_Burlant: AEINOST 3B NIO.ATES +74 149
#note Go back to my previous turn and check the pool I was drawing from. My 4-tile exchange yielded AEIO - one each of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th most probable tiles in the pool. It just doesn't get higher probability than that. Anyway, I only have two bingos available - 11A ATONIES or this choice. This is clearly best. Putting this down, I felt far from secure; I knew he had to be closing in on a bingo of his own, which meant I was still going to be in a 40 or 50-point hole.
>John_Redding: ?AEIKLR 11A cARLIKE +74 201
>John_Redding: ?AEIKLR -- -74 127
#note Sure enough, the bingo rack to counter mine. Fortunately for me, he doesn't convert.
>Jim_Burlant: GLMPRSY H1 GL.Y +36 185
#note My conundrum was that, with this rack, was it worth it to block row 11? If I had something like AENRSTY or AEIRSTY that was maybe a Y-dump away from an almost certain bingo I probably sacrifice the equity to block by playing AWAY H8 and force him to find hA(I)RLIKE down the C column. If he's trying cARLIKE*, will he even think of OARLIKE, WARLIKE, or any of the legitimate 7's in that rack? Also, I considered this: If I block, I score 10 points, I'm still sitting on this consonant overload and it's not if, but when, he hits a bingo with the blank. If I don't block I score 36, I clear out more of the clunk, and lead by 58, and I'll still be in the game when he does hit. And hopefully if I draw a vowel and he finds a bingo, I'll be able to play down the A column with what he opens up. Even when simmed against his rack of AEILKR?, Quackle indicates that blocking is a waste of time and that this is my best play, winning 61%.
>John_Redding: ?AEIKLR 2F KA.E +38 165
#note His best play is to bingo with oARLIKE or wARLIKE. Those win 45%; this wins 43 and sims 5 points down.
>Jim_Burlant: CMOPRRS D1 CR.P +30 215
#note Or PROM in the same location. The sim keeps toggling back and forth between these two choices and it's really style preference - do you prefer MORS or CORS? I thought it might be a touch easier to score with the M in case of a cruddy draw.
>John_Redding: ?DEEIRU 1A URI. +18 183
#note Believe it or not, Quackle doesn't think he's missed a whole lot here. His bingos are either 7's at 11A that score 67 or 68 and slot the triple or B column 8's that give up easy plays down the A column. He only loses 5 points and 4% winning chances by playing this. Q says his best play is 11A UREIDEs.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAMORS 11A RAMOnAS +70 285
#note I did not autopilot this. I saw SAMOvAR L5 but chickened out on it, and didn't see anything anywhere else that scored anywhere close enough to justify not bingoing. I was quite nervous about this, as I knew he had the blank. And against an opponent who's a stronger anagrammer with better word knowledge, I might have played for cheap. Best according to the duck is to pass up the bingos with 2A MA 18 or the slick 10F ATAXIA 15 to set up the S hook and a much safer bingo line. This wins 88-1/2% and concedes 4-1/2 points at nearly 1000 iterations. MA and ATAXIA win 91-1/2% or thereabouts. Q says the one bingo that is worth playing is pARAMOS 11A since the P is not likely to lead to 3x3's.
>John_Redding: ?DEEIIL B8 IDE.LIzE +70 253
#note A7 LIVERIED and A4 WIELDIER score 77 and 74. John is 17% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: DEINNOU 3K .ODUN +18 303
#note Without a good play at 15A, I thought I should open up the O column to counter. Q says I should worry about Q plays at A8, as the best play is to unload these same letters with A5 UNDO for 21; this is the bronze medalist, winning 71.9%, simming roughly 3 points down.
>John_Redding: EFRW 15A F.WER +36 289
>Jim_Burlant: CEEIMNP O1 MI.CE +36 339
#note This rack looks like it should have something, but the only 8 is SPECIMEN. As for this position - hmmm. Q says I should keep the 3x3 open and play A6 CEPE or CEP. I think I need to worry a little more about a potential 3x3 than his hitting a Q play for 70 - 80 at A8. I don't understand why Quackle thinks this play sucks so badly. It takes out the 3x3, it doesn't open anything up that isn't already open elsewhere, it scores 36 and leaves me ENP...what is so terrible? I'd make this play again even if Quackle thinks it's a 10-point dog.
>John_Redding: BERU A6 RUBE +33 322
>Jim_Burlant: EINPSTV L2 T.P +26 365
#note Q says this is the right idea with the wrong execution. I'm correct to be worried about this spot as it's the easiest spot for him to score. Q feels I should have traded the two points and kept the T, simply playing OP for 24. Q may be right, but that said, with T being the second most probable tile in the pool, I didn't mind unloading mine. 84% to win.
>John_Redding: OO 14B .OO +9 331
#note I don't know his rack, but this play kept the game a lot closer than it would have otherwise been.
>Jim_Burlant: DEINOSV 13A V.D +28 393
#note With VISIONED having been blocked and no E for NOSEDIVE, this is the play. Nothing else is even close. 90% to win.
>John_Redding: JO C7 JO +22 353
>Jim_Burlant: EGINOST D8 GO +14 407
#note I didn't autopilot this. This sims with the highest equity of any choice - 90% to win. Ostensibly, F1 OKA wins 1/2% more often though it sims nearly 5 points down. I felt it would be better to take the bag down to 1 and add 7 more points to my lead by playing for 14 instead of 7. While the Q is unseen and there's something to be said for just dinking off an O to minimize exposure to the pool, I also felt that, worst-casing it, I've still got QIS at 1J or 6M if I land the Q.
>John_Redding: E 4D ..E +12 365
>Jim_Burlant: EEINNST 6L TENS +16 423
#note Whoops - FEINTS 6J scores 29.
>John_Redding: AINQRST 11J TRANQS +32 397
>Jim_Burlant: EIN M11 .INE +8 431
#note Scores 10 at B3.
>Jim_Burlant: (I) +2 433
#note Very happy with how this one shook out. Though it was a hard play to stay away from since it scored 70 and there was nothing available elsewhere that scored as much as 20, RAMONAS was probably not the right call. That said, I don't care what Quackle says, there's nothing wrong with MINCE as far as I'm concerned. The only real mistake from where I'm sitting was with TENS instead of FEINTS, costing me approximately 15 points of spread...and that came at garbage time with the win already a done deal. Outside of FEINTS/TENS, I can't play much better than this.
|
