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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Baker Mike Baker
>Jim_Burlant: AHNNOOV 8E NOVA +14 14
#note Because of the points available for HONAN 8D (which I never saw), the sim takes a while to sort out. The liabilities of this play are (a) the points conceded to HONAN and (b) the defensive liability (i.e., the E back-hook down the I column. Eventually, Quackle likes this best, as it unloads the V. With hindsight being 20/20, I do wonder if HONAN is slightly better, though I don't get burned for this choice.
>Mike_Baker: AIOP E5 PIA.O +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: ?HNNOQS 5C QO.H +18 32
#note And sometimes, balancing the rack has to take a back seat to unloading the negative tiles. The only play that unloads the Q and an N is 6B QuOIN 35...and 35 points just doesn't score enough to justify burning the blank. This is best, though Quackle indicates QuOIN is a good choice, saying that it wins barely 0.3% less often and sims not even 1/2 point down.
>Mike_Baker: EE G7 E.E +8 22
>Jim_Burlant: ?ANNSSU 4F UNSNApS +69 101
#note With this much duplication in a blank rack, I'm just happy to have found this. That said, I missed a better play: SUNtANS 10E scores 75. The consolation I can take: he only scored 70 on his next turn instead of 75 due to my mistake.
>Mike_Baker: BEEINOT I8 EBONITE +71 93
>Jim_Burlant: AOTUUWY H1 YOW. +30 131
#note Now this is one hideous rack. Couldn't think of OUTSAW or OUTSAY, and none of the other dumps appealed to me; I couldn't wrap my arms around and keeping UY or UW. This outscores all my other options, but looking at the choices, OUTSAW H1 definitely looks best. This is my 3rd-best available choice, though it wins 47-1/2% and sims 8 points down on OUTSAW, which wins 51-3/4%.
>Mike_Baker: ADLY H12 LADY +35 128
>Jim_Burlant: AHRTTUU J10 HUT +32 163
#note Atoning for my previous mistake. This is the clear winner - while I still have a U, the rack is starting to balance now. For reference, my next best play, 3B TRUTH, wins 8% less often and sims nearly 14 points down.
>Mike_Baker: DEFIW D9 WIFED +29 157
>Jim_Burlant: ABJRTTU C2 BUR.A +32 195
#note I was going to play JURAT D9 until hs play of WIFED blocked it, and in the sad-but-true department, I never saw the simple JUT C7. This outscores everything else, but it's awful on several fronts. Not only does it keep an unbalanced combo, but it needlessly creates a Z hot spot at 6B. And my next draw doesn't help my case any, either.
>Mike_Baker: ?ACEIRS K2 CA.RIcES +66 223
>Jim_Burlant: IIJTTTV 1E JIV. +17 212
#note I considered this and TITTY; I felt that, as counterintuitive as it was/is to keep triplicated T's instead of IJV, a reasonable draw to ITTT could leave me a T-dump away from a bingo, where IJV was likely to have me sitting on a random rack two turns down the road. As for placement - with Mike just having gone up a half step, I didn't want to kill bingo possibilities on row 15. Q agrees with my choice to keep ITTT instead of playing TITTY, but it thinks I should play at 12A with JIVE...which I don't, as it's way too easy for him to score at least 33 on his next turn. Q says my next best play after JIVE 12A is to exchange all 7, even with the blank gone. Really?
>Mike_Baker: GIR 11D .RIG +16 239
>Jim_Burlant: EIITTTZ B6 ZIT +63 275
#note Awesome draw!!!! Benefitting from my previous mistake. Either this or ZITI - Q says I should take the extra point with ZITI as the board position is more or less identical between the two plays.
>Mike_Baker: DFGINOR L8 FORDING +93 332
>Jim_Burlant: EEILPTT A7 PELTITE +90 365
#note An honest mistake - the alphabet soup congealed and I confused the legitimate PELTATE with this, which is phony. Mike held, and I caught a huge break as he overthought this. Post-mortem, Mike told me he thought PETITELY* played on row 15 and he calculated that as scoring 102 points. This scored 90 and, so went his thinking, I had no good reason to play for 90 when I had 102 available unless I was trying to draw the challenge, so he let it go. Good thing for me he did - my best legitimate options are a bunch of 37-point plays at A7 (PETTLE, PETITE, etc.) and none of them win more than 16-1/2%. This wins 65.
>Mike_Baker: ACEM B1 CAME +30 362
>Jim_Burlant: ADKLLRX F10 K.LL +18 383
#note Sitting on the X, I thought it was worth taking the turn to see if I could land the U so I could play the cheap XU J14. I opted to play here instead of on row 6 because, with the S unseen, KILL 6J gave him a nice easy place to hook a 7, which could lose the game. Q agrees with this choice. 67.5% to win.
>Mike_Baker: S 7A ..S +24 386
>Jim_Burlant: AADEGRX 6J X. +25 408
#note Since I didn't land the U, I figured he probably had it. I almost put down C12 RAX or DEX, but then I recognized Row 6 as a bingo lane (something that hadn't occurred to me on my previous turn), with MOTIONER is a possibility given this pool. Hence, the decision to cash the X and block. Simulated against a possible EMNOORT, this immediately leapfrogs to the top of the sim and nothing else comes close.
>Mike_Baker: NOO 2B ..OON +22 408
>Jim_Burlant: AADEGMR C12 MAGE +24 432
>Mike_Baker: EERTU 2K .RUET +14 422
>Jim_Burlant: ADR 14L .RAD +12 444
>Jim_Burlant: (E) +2 446
#note Despite myself, I managed to pull it out. Don't know how I missed JUT, though.
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