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#player1 Jeff_Fiszbein Jeff Fiszbein
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Jeff_Fiszbein: BGIL 8F GLIB +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAEFIK 7H KAIF +23 23
#note The best play is obviously G6 KALIFATE; I only knew the CALIFATE spelling. If you don't know/miss the bingo, your options aren't that great as something has to give: you can either keep tiles you don't want to keep, leave yourself a vowel overload, or clear the rack and open up risky board position. I opted for the latter; best if you dion't know the bingo is apparently 7H KAF.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: RTU K4 TUR. +14 28
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENOUU 9H NOUvEAU +71 94
#note Jeff: "Two U's ?!?!?" This is my only bingo - 69% to win in a short sim.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AGW 10F WAG +24 52
>Jim_Burlant: EEEFNRV 11C FEVER +29 123
#note Again, you have to know it to play it - ENFEVER scores 83 at 11A. This is best if you don't know the bingo...but this is a pretty bad miss.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AENV L1 VENA +26 78
>Jim_Burlant: DEEHINU 12A HUED +35 158
#note Yay, I finally got a play right! 81% to win. M2 HUE leves a more balanced DEIN, but 11 points is a little too much to give up for it. 81% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: OP 6J P.O +21 99
>Jim_Burlant: EIIJNOW 1L .IEW +30 188
#note Reasonable play, but not best. 1H INWOVE scores 36. Still in good shape at 80%.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ELO A12 .OLE +21 120
>Jim_Burlant: ?HIJNOT L8 J.TON +40 228
#note This was not auto-pilot. I gave serious consideration to 2 plays: this, and F6 JOG. As tempting as it was to keep HINT? together, I felt like the E at L9 wouldn't remain open if I played down the F column, and this board really wouldn't be too good if I played JOG and he played something like MANE 8L. So I opted for 40 points and turnover. And given this balanced pool, with 5 A's, 5E's, 5I's, 4R's, 4S's unseen, that's a reasonable choice to make. Quackle agrees with me - this is best, and I'm 98% to win. Now, to this point I've missed two bingos I didn't know. Whiffing on KALIFATE with the blank was a minor miss where, given the duplicated U's I drew on the replenish, the points I missed probably came out in the wash. No bones about it, missing ENFEVER was huge. While there's been some equity sacrificed on the other turns, those misses have been relatively minor and I've played the best game I was capable of given the limitations of my skill set. All that said, this is where my brain went soft and I did everything I could do to give the game away.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ADEEILS 13F AEDILES +73 193
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEGHIR 10N HI +26 254
#note I thought I might have missed something here, and I did. You have to know it to play it, and the 10860-probability EUCHRING plays at N8 for 88. Even not knowing that, there were any number of better options. I passed on plays like RICH, ECH on row 14 because I convinced myself he'd come back on row 15 for even more points - utterly idiotic reasoning, considering that I had to defend against the X. Instead, I've constricted the baord. I'm still 90% to win (EUCHRING wins 98) but that's about to go down.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ADLO C8 LOA..D +22 215
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEGMNR 10B M.G +17 271
#note Yet another low-prob word I don't know shows up in my racks: 2E MERGENCE (p > 18000) scores 66 and wins 97%. This is the best non-bingo and it still wins 94%.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: COY 8A CO.Y +39 254
>Jim_Burlant: ?BCEMNR 11K M.B +14 285
#note 15A ENCUMBER (p > 18000) scores 89. It never occurred to me that there was a bingo in this rack; if you whiff as I did, this is as good as anything else.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: INX 14D NIX +51 305
>Jim_Burlant: ?CENRRY H13 .RY +21 306
#note And now I'm starting to go tilt - the X spot had sat there way too long, I was getting frustrated by my inability to land nothing but low-probability and/or duplicated consonants instead of the A or I that would take the rack into a probability range I could find, and time was becoming a problem, as the blank had now become an albatross around my neck. And it just never occurred to me that there was a 7 in this rack: ERRaNCY (barely past the range of 7's I've studied), which would have played at 15F for 105. CURRENCY plays at A2, and I missed that as well. I'm still 69% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EZ 2J ZE. +32 337
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACENRR N1 .R +4 310
#note Again, juuuust past the range of 8's I've studied, CINERARY plays at D1 for 80. I'm still a 54% shot to win with this play.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AINPSTT F1 SPATTIN. +69 406
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACENRS 1A NARCo.ES +158 468
#note And after going 1:45 over on time, I find it. This is the only winning play I have. This was held, and released.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ADE 8L .ADE +45 451
>Jim_Burlant: IOOS 11C .....S +22 490
>Jeff_Fiszbein: QRTT D6 TR. +6 457
>Jim_Burlant: IIOO J12 O.IO +6 496
#note Auto-piloted since I was at -1:50-something -close enough to going over that I couldn't risk going over by the extra 10 seconds. Best looks to be G4 OI to prevent the easy QAT. This still wins, but at a loss of 16 equity.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: QT 3E Q.T +13 470
>Jeff_Fiszbein: (I) +2 472
#note Time penalty: -20. Final score 476 - 472. My gut told me at the time that I'd played this one horrendously. There were other opponents who had been teed off that I'd beaten them, but if they'd seen those games from my perspective, they might have had better insight into why I'd played like I did. That said, I thought that if there was one opponent who had the right to be pissed off that I'd beaten him, Jeff was it. The reality is that, with the exception of my terrible HI play, the rest of this game was probably the best I could do given the limitations of my word knowledge; I cannot recall a game in which I had as many bingoes I just didn't know show up in my racks. A top expert would have easily run away with this one and probably hit 3 or 4 bingos to the two I could muster. And yeah, maybe I should have been able to find (E)NCuMBER, but that's still not the easiest thing to find out of a rack of CEMNBR?, and its probability takes it way past any range I've studied. This game has to set a record for the most equity coughed up in a 470+ game. Sheesh.
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