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#player1 Gunther_Jacobi Gunther Jacobi
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Gunther_Jacobi: EGIOV 8D VOGIE +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: CEEGITW 7G TWIG +18 18
#note Despite giving up the S hook that TWICE in the same place does not, I'd much rather keep CEE than EG, as I really really do not like keeping G's without N's; I view an N-less G as being almost as toxic to a rack as a U-less Q. Whether you think I'm wrong about my disliking G's or not, one thing's sure: Quackle agrees with my choice here, as this is best.
>Gunther_Jacobi: AQT 6I QAT +30 56
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEELU D7 E.ACUEE +24 42
#note And after a couple of minutes, I find it. The leaves with the shorter plays (9G CEE, D4 CLEAVE) just aren't good enough to justify playing short. Again, Quackle agrees with me. 36% to win.
>Gunther_Jacobi: OZ 10D .OZ +34 90
#note As I was watching Gunther put down these short 30-point power tile plays, I felt that his Q and Z were sort of a mixed blessing for him. On the positive side, he was scoring well with them. On the other hand, it struck me that they were making it difficult for him to keep up with my tempo, which would hopefully allow me to land the first big blow.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGKLN C2 KALEND +31 73
#note Bwa ha ha!!!!! I saw ANKLED 8J but wasn't sure enough about it so I passed on it. Then I saw ANGLED in the same spot but really wanted to unload the K, so I put this down, smugly thinking this was the sure fire safe bet. The irony of this is that the play I thought was phony was good, and that this is phony. Fortunately, this didn't draw so much as a hold. Best is clearly 8J ANKLED, with nothing else being worth consideration.
>Gunther_Jacobi: EELMRST 5J MEL +20 110
#note His rack - he chickened out on the bingos. His best play is clearly down the L column, either with L6 SMELTER or L4 RESMELT.
>Jim_Burlant: AGNRTWX D3 WAX +44 117
#note While this is a solid play, it's not best - REWAX 13C scores 2 more but, more importantly, clears out the extra tile - critical since I have to burn my only vowel. However, luckily for me, this blocked his impending bingo.
>Gunther_Jacobi: CELRSTT 5B T..T +22 132
#note Had I played REWAX as I should have, he was going to hit me with CLATTERS 4B. This is his best play, and he's still 60% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: FGNORTU C13 FUG +24 141
#note Per the simn, this is the right idea with the wrong execution' the sim says I should either play FOU C13 or C12 FRUG. Championship player says it's a completely different story, saying that M3 FUTON or 13A FOREGUT were the plays. Perhaps, but this did work out.
>Gunther_Jacobi: ACEILRS 15C .RACILES +86 218
#note Or GLACIERS in the same location.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DNORTY M2 TaRDYON +79 220
#note The same word plays in 2 other locations (M5, and 9H) for 71 and 67 points. This choice scores 79 and is best. Still not quite 38.5% to win.
>Gunther_Jacobi: IJPU 8K PU.JI +45 263
>Jim_Burlant: ADHIMNO 11C H.MANOID +97 317
#note Also plays at L7 for 83, but this is best. 76% to win.
>Gunther_Jacobi: EEY 14H EYE +19 282
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIOPSV 10I PAVIOrS +72 389
#note While this is nothing more than luckbox drawing on my end, one subtle factor was in play: courtesy of his having had to repeatedly play short in the early game, I had taken ten more cracks at the bag than he had to this point - critical in my being able to land both blanks in a span of three turns. Prior to his play of EYE, I had planned on playing SPIV K11 for 50, keeping the blank. With that option no longer available I didn't think it was worth it to hold the blank while I was still addled with the V. Not to mention that this adds some resistance to the O column. In retrospect, I think Quackle is right - while this is certainly not a bad play by any means, it's not best. Equity-wise, Quackle says not bingoing and playing K8 POPS is better by 5 points; POPS wins 97.71% and this wins 97.64. SOP K11 wins 0.04% less often than this and sims 2 points higher.
>Gunther_Jacobi: BEORR 13I BORER +34 316
>Jim_Burlant: AEFINOS N1 FON +17 406
#note Quackle indicates I had the right idea in terms of trying to defend against bingos on rows 2 and 3, but there was a much better way to do it: L1 FINAL scores 31. I never saw it. Still in good shape at 98-1/2% to win.
>Gunther_Jacobi: BNU E1 BUN +11 327
>Jim_Burlant: AAEINSS 1E .ASE +18 424
#note With my round 7 loss to Mike Frentz resonating in the back of my mind, I played here for cheap just in case there was some obscure 8 on row 1. In retrospect I needed to do some arithmetic: worst case, if I play ANISE for 38 it puts me up 119 points, and if he bingos on row 1 it's for 83 or 86 and even if he gets 16 points from my rack (ANIS or ANISE empty the bag here) it won't be enough. ANIS or ANISE O1 definitely should have been the play.
>Gunther_Jacobi: DEIORT O1 EDITOR +45 372
>Jim_Burlant: AHIILNS 12L HAIL +28 452
#note Outside of the KALEND whoopsie, pretty happy with how I played this until my play of BASE. While FON was a palatable mistake, what I did with BASE is an example of how your thought processes go into the weeds once you've started to have a bad tournament. BASE coughed up a bunch of spread for no good reason, as ANISE for 38 would have cemented the win regardless.
>Gunther_Jacobi: R 13C ..R +6 378
>Gunther_Jacobi: (INS) +6 384
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