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#player1 volucris volucris
#player2 zem zem
>volucris: EIOPSUZ H8 UPSIZE +54 54
#note At the time I played this I wasn't sure if it was a verb, a noun, or an adjective like UNISIZE, BITESIZE# (take nothing); MIDSIZE, PINTSIZE (take D). I'm like 75% confident of the -D hook and 60% of the -S hook, which informs the next several turns. Still, there's no contest here. [All that follow are Elise 3-ply sims.]
*1. UPSIZE 8H 54 +6.28 / 61.0% (650)
2. PIEZO 8D 38 -0.18 / 58.5% (640)
>zem: AINOORV I11 NOR +20 20
>volucris: DEOORWY 12H ..OEY +34 88
#note Martin probably has a good rack. Most of Elise's top choices make use of UPSIZED, which I again wasn't sure of, and which feels like it gives up tempo and cheap points; but if I assume Martin is likely to bingo using that hook, YOWED seems much better.
1. YOWED 14D 39 +25.25 / 69.0% (1440)
*3. ZOOEY 12H 34 +20.20 / 66.7% (480)
>zem: AEILNOV K9 VOL. +14 34
>volucris: DDOOORW 13K DOW +28 116
#note Elise now thinks Martin has an awesome rack, 10 points better than average. I suspect the median is lower -- he has the blank, or he doesn't. Not being sure of UPSIZED hurts me again, but for similar reasons as last turn, I'm less a fan of playing there than Elise is. (I'm also not 100% sure Martin knows UPSIZE's part of speech himself; that said, even if he doesn't, chances are he'll take a shot at any plausible hooks at this point.) My rationale for DOW: it opens another lane that maybe I can make use of (DOWD#) so I'm not putting all my eggs in one basket.
1. WOOD 14E 29 +33.98 / 72.4% (970)
*7. DOW 13K 28 +23.30 / 68.4% (560)
>zem: ?AAEINS 14D AmNESIA +82 116
#note Ouch. My bad.
>volucris: ADEIOOR 15A ROADEO +35 151
#note At least I get an easy decision this turn for my trouble.
*1. ROADEO 15A 35 -4.36 / 58.4%
2. ROADIE 15A 35 -4.91 / 58.1%
>zem: ABGIIOT N10 BIOTA +34 150
>volucris: CGIKLSY O7 ICKY +46 197
#note Martin blocked my huge SICKLY spot at 15J, but this isn't too bad. Close choice, but the X is out and I'd rather not set up comical 80-point 5LWs.
1. SICKLY O5 52 +10.77 / 66.4%
*2. ICKY O7 46 +10.89 / 66.0%
>zem: CGHIPRU 6L GRIP +25 175
>volucris: DGIJLST 10J J.G +27 224
#note Crossing my fingers Martin doesn't have an S. Also, kicking myself a bit that I didn't think creatively enough to see the best play.
1. GLID 13A 17 +17.74 / 70.0% (2910)
*3. JOG 10J 27 +15.52 / 68.7% (560)
>zem: CDEHMNU 5K HUED +24 199
>volucris: DILQSTT 10F QI. +32 256
#note Really looks like the only sensical move, though QUIT 8G briefly occurred to me (and doesn't sim *that* far back.)
*1. QIS 1OF 32 +5.57 / 64.3% (1260)
2. ST 4K 17 +3.49 / 63.6% (880)
>zem: ?ACEEMN 4F MENACEd +83 282
>volucris: DLLRSTT 8F TR.LL +5 261
#note Pleeeeease let me get something to play at L15. Or, I dunno, a bingo or something. I'd take that. Instinct tells me to shy away from most of Elise's top choices at G3, though I like TELL because I retain the S.
1. DELL G3 7 -48.01 / 30.9% (4880)
*7. TRULL 8F 5 -52.11 / 27.9% (720)
>zem: EEFFLOT - +0 282
>volucris: DESTTUV 3C DUVET +27 288
#note It took me a long time to talk myself out of VEST, and perhaps I shouldn't have; but I do have a rationale for this play. Because I didn't play TELL last turn, Martin has all sorts of cheap things at the top of the board, and this play reduces those. There are 18 tiles in the bag, so I'm in no hurry. DUVET makes the board more controllable, which is to my benefit. I believe I, personally, win this game a bit more often after DUVET.
1. VEST 15L 41 -15.63 / 51.6% (1360)
*[4.] DUVET 3C 27 -27.31 / 43.3% (5110)
>zem: EEFFLOT 5C FLEET +24 306
>volucris: INNSTTX O13 SIX +41 329
#note This, on the other hand, is just a poor, scared play. If I wasn't going to do VEST, I definitely shouldn't have done this. The equity is okay, but nothing else is. At this point, I want to keep the S for STET, even if Martin has the other one.
1. NIX 2B 32 -15.34 / 53.9% (1430)
*[6.] SIX O13 41 -16.06 / 45.0% (5017)
>zem: AEFNOUW 6B WEAN +24 330
>volucris: EINNRTT 13A NITRE +16 345
#note I spent a long time on this move and ultimately chose this. My initial thought was TETRI, which gives up a lot less scoring-wise, but leaves NN, which could stop me from going out first, and limit my bingoing chances. I decided after the game that NITRE just gave up too much scoring, and I should have gone with TETRI. Elise agrees, having TETRI third (57%), but favors a couple other plays: RENT, which I dislike, and the rather clever TA I3, (64%) which I didn't even think of with six tiles in the bag; but if Martin is sitting on the last S it really helps maximize my bingo chances.
1. RENT 7A 20 +10.11 / 66.1%
*16. NITRE 13A 16 -4.79 / 47.9% (6778)
>zem: ABFGMOU 12B BUG +30 360
>volucris: AAINRST 2F TSARINA +73 418
#note Where luckboxing happens.
>volucris: (AFHMO) +26 444
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