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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: FIINRUV -FIUV +0 0
#note Round 12. The morning session prior to this game had been a disaster - the first three games I had basically done nothing but sit and watch my opponents play. The fourth game was a 110-point win for me, but when I was told by someone at the next board about the play my opponent had missed roughly halfway into that game, it was very unsettling to know that my 110-point win over that opponent would have been an almost sure loss against practically anyone in the top 3/4 of the field. My round 9 and round 10 opponents had both torched me with 100+ point opening rack bingos and my round 11 opponent hit a blank bingo on turn 2. Needless to say, as for the second straight time going first I was having to throw my opening rack back into the bag, I was leery about what would ensue on the next turn. Anyway - preamble notwithstanding, this is my best exchange.
>Mike_Early: EEFIIQT -EEFI +0 0
#note Relief! Mike didn't torch me with a huge bingo out of the bag!
>Jim_Burlant: ABIJLNR 8G JIB +24 24
#note Quackle takes a while to sort this one out before saying that this is best, although the 8F placement is also worth considering despite the vowel placement issues it creates. I was concerned about the easy back hooks but decided that the only way he could hurt me was if he had a Z and an S - not a very high probability occurrence at this stage of the game. Given how the game panned out, I certainly wish I'd played at 8F.
>Mike_Early: ASZ J6 ZAS +45 45
>Jim_Burlant: AEFLNRR K3 FERAL +29 53
#note I considered the plausible INFERRAL* but ultimately decided it wouldn't fly. (For the record, the only 8 in this set of letters is FRENULAR.) As for this - with no good way to balance the rack to my satisfaction -the ELNR leave of K5 FAR doesn't strike me as being that great as a leave, FLAN K4 leaves dupe R's, I felt this was my best option, even if it meant floating the E. The open E concerned me, but I felt I didn't have a choice. The sim takes quite a while to sort out, with this and K4 FLAN toggling back and forth for sim winner honors, even past 1000 iterations. Given his next rack, I certainly wish I'd played FLAN. 46.6% to win, but not for long.
>Mike_Early: EILNORR L7 LORINER +69 114
>Jim_Burlant: DIKMNRT 4H MIK.D +30 83
#note Best - scores 30 and salvages the best possible leave from this position. 29% to win.
>Mike_Early: HILORT 3C LIROTH +27 141
>Jim_Burlant: ANORTVW E2 V.OW +20 103
#note I considered pure scoring plays like 2E OW, 2E TOW, etc., and couldn't wrap my arms around keeping the V - not to mention that 4 T's were unseen and it might give him an opening for a play that takes his winning chances from 75% to 95. The sim makes it clear why I took so long with this - everything is pretty much as good as everything else. Best is apparently 2E OW, which wins 26.3%. Every one of the next 5 options (of which this is one) wins 25.9% and sims within 1 point. Other options are 2D TOW, 13K VROW, F1 AVOW. Take your pick.
>Mike_Early: FSTUY 14J FUSTY +46 187
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: AEENORT 3K .OE +15 118
#note I spent a lot of time on this turn, as row 15 had to be addressed. I saw ATONE 15F and rejected it because placing the A at 15F was reckless. As for why I didn't play there, NOTAE* at 15F looked wrong and I couldn't remember ATONE's anagram of OATEN. Plays like TOE or ONE 15H didn't appeal to me, as they're neither fish nor fowl - they only score 14 and break up a hair too much of the rack for not enough points. Thus, the decision to reluctantly fish off EO and hope for something that would play on row 15 on my next turn. According to the duck, 9G ONE is the play, as it scores 22 and leaves AERT - just enough to consider turning the third tile. This is my second best option, though it wins 2% less often and sims almost 5 points down at nearly 600 iterations.
>Mike_Early: IIIIOOO -IIII +0 187
>Jim_Burlant: AENNRST 10G TRANN.ES +62 180
#note If a bingo rack can be the draw you didn't want, this was it. I was hoping for something that could play on row 15 and my only options are air balls that score in the low 60's - LANTERNS C3 60, and this or ENTRAINS for 62. And row 15 is still a threat. Back up to 34%.
>Mike_Early: DN 4D D.N +16 203
>Jim_Burlant: AGHINTW 2L THAW +29 209
#note Obviously, row 15 is the threat and it has to be addressed, but my brain chose the absolute worst possible moment to stop working. I missed everything - and I mean EVERYTHING - that would take out row 15. Never mind WIGAN, I never saw the three-letter WHA or even the common word WHAT. Pathetic, but true. I spent almost 3 or 4 minutes on this turn before putting this down. I don't need to run a sim to know that, with no bingos playing, WHAT 15H should have been the play. What *is* impressive is how horrendous this play is. And the punishment was quite severe - deservedly so.
>Mike_Early: DEEINST 15D DESTINE +85 288
#note If I had found WHAT as I should have on the previous turn, it would not have stopped Mike from bingoing here. However, he'd only be scoring 77 down the N column and opening up both row 1 and the O column for huge plays. Instead, due to my stupidity he hits for 85 and gives nothing back. He's winning 87% in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: CGIMNPU E10 PUMIC. +24 233
#note Board vision failure. The C column looked shut off and while I saw the obvious 8 in my rack, it looked like a no-go, resulting in my missing the bingo here: CLUMPING C2 scores 73 and wins 30; this wins 7. Play incorrectly scored as 26; corrected on the recount.
>Mike_Early: AAY O1 A.AY +42 330
#note Punishment, part 2. What does he do with this if I hadn't given him the juicy opening with my idiotic THAW play a couple of turns ago? Completely deserved.
>Jim_Burlant: ?GINOOX D10 OXO +41 274
#note Despite myself, there's hope just yet - up from 7% winning chances to 13%. Can I pull off the comeback?
>Mike_Early: ABP C8 BAP +15 345
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEGILN 8A GI.E +24 298
#note No bingos play. Would normally want to keep the E for rack building purposes, but (a) dumping the E scores 6 more points (unless I'm sitting on one of the last couple of E's, I typically value the E at 4 points) and (b) the pool still has 5 E's unseen, so it's a good bet I'll draw another one. Quackle agrees - my winning chances keep doubling, and I'm up to 26%.
>Mike_Early: EGIU A6 GI.UE +7 352
#note Bonus - I've lured him into a cheap block, meaning that I now don't need anything more than a 60-point air ball to possibly steal the win. Can I do it?
>Jim_Burlant: ?CELNOR N5 eNCLO.ER +61 359
#note Either this or iNCLOSER. Nothing available scores more than 61. FLORENCE scores 60 on row 12.
>Mike_Early: EO 9F OE +14 366
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGIQT H12 QAD. +24 383
>Mike_Early: ?AEUV 13G V.U +11 377
#note 2B VARVE goes out for 34.
>Jim_Burlant: EGIT C12 TEG +13 396
>Mike_Early: ?AE 2C eA.E +18 395
>Mike_Early: (I) +2 397
#note The final score was originally 398 - 397, and the recount showed that I had misscored my PUMICE play, turning the result into a 1-point loss for me. The shame of this - turns 1 - 7, and 10 - 14 was as solid a level of play as you'll find anywhere. But with my hideous turn 8 mistake giving him the scoring bonanza it did, there was no way I deserved this win. Not to mention the missed bingo on turn 9. You can't make mistakes like this at any level, you just can't.
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