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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Michael_Thelen Michael Thelen
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEFNY 8G FAY +18 18
#note This was round 15. It was the first rack of the morning and I obviously wasn't awake yet. I put this down and realized the mistake after I hit my clock: FAENA 8D definitely should have been the play. This choice surprisingly sims second best, but it leaves me too prone to vowel overloads. It yielded a no-go bingo rack on my next turn, but it doesn't mean this was a good play. FAENA was the play.
>Michael_Thelen: FINO 7F FINO +23 23
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGNPW 6C WAGE +17 35
#note Couldn't think of GAWP 6I - defintely looks best. Again, I'm surprised this sims as well as it does, as, again, it's second best and only concedes 1-1/2% winning chances and not even 3 equity at over 1000 iterations. And I benefit from the mistake.
>Michael_Thelen: AABRRUX -AA +0 23
>Jim_Burlant: ACLNNOP C3 CLO.N +22 57
#note Two choices stand out at the top of the sim: D6 ANCONAL, and this. They sim interchangeably, winning a hair over 57%. But not for long.
>Michael_Thelen: EEORSST J8 STEREOS +71 94
#note Bingos all over the board for Michael - 4A SOLERETS, and this plays at J1, 6I, and 9A for 69, 67, and 66 respectively. This is his best bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: ACENPRT 12H PR.ENACT +82 139
#note Find a good play, look for a better one. This is solid, but it's not best. And it's quite ironic that I missed my best one. I almost missed PREENACT, as the first thing I saw in this rack was PORTANCE/COPARENT, and I lamented what I perceived as the lack of an open O, as I missed the O in CLOWN. COPARENT plays for 90 at 5B and, as you'll see, he probably would not have gone on to have the bingo bonanza he did. I'm 60% to win, but not for long.
>Michael_Thelen: AEILOSU N8 EUSO.IAL +74 168
>Jim_Burlant: DIMNQRT O5 MIND +30 169
#note Clearly best - it looks like a 30-point rack dump but its real purpose was to give me a Q play on the next turn. Now I have to cross my fingers that he doesn't have something like HAPAX in his rack.
>Michael_Thelen: BEI 15L BI.E +27 195
>Jim_Burlant: DOQRRTT 6N Q. +31 200
#note Despite the horrid leave, there are too many points available (the best rack cleaner of G5 DRIFT scores 19, keeping the Q) and there's no guarantee N6 will still be open. This is best. 34% to win, but not for long.
>Michael_Thelen: AEILOPR 13B PELORIA +74 269
#note Other bingos score low 60's - 3C CAPRIOLE 64, 14D POLARISE, 14C PELORIAS, L5 PELORIAN. This is his best play, and it wins just shy of 80%.
>Jim_Burlant: DGORRTT B10 DRO.T +24 224
#note Best is a word I don't think I've ever seen played and it never occurred to me to look for it: DOGTROT E8 18. This is a respectable second in the sim, though and it's the highest scoring play I have available.
>Michael_Thelen: ABIILTU -ABIILTU +0 269
>Jim_Burlant: AGHKRTT 12A K.RAT +36 260
#note If I was going to get back into this game, I needed him to take a break from the scoring, and his having to exchange was a huge break. It took me a while to find this, and it hits the mark - it's clearly best, and nothing else is worth consideration. 25% to win.
>Michael_Thelen: EINX A7 NIXE +36 305
>Jim_Burlant: EGGHITU 6I HUG +18 278
#note No really good options available and I puzzled over this position. I put this down to open up an E hook (since he may have burned his only E to play NIXE) and balance my rack in the process. Best is apparently 4C LUGGIE, which I didn't know. LUGGIE wins 18%, this wins roughly 16-1/2. Looking bleak.
>Michael_Thelen: ELMUV L5 VELUM +19 324
#note Damn not only does he have the E, but he's got the V to block.
>Jim_Burlant: EEGITTY 11J .YE +24 302
#note This scores as well as anything else, but I really needed more turnover here - both to clear the dupes and chase after a blank. Best are apparently 14E YETT and 4B GLEETY (can I really afford to burn both my E's?), which wins 15%. This wins just under 11.
>Michael_Thelen: AH D4 AH. +21 345
>Jim_Burlant: EGIJTTZ E2 JIG +15 317
#note And JILT 4A was just blocked. Damn. Nio clue what to do with this - I figured I'd just open a line and hope to draw vowels so I could play the Z on row 10. I took a long time here and it turns out this is best. 10% to win.
>Michael_Thelen: D 3E .D +3 348
#note To this point, while I haven't played perfectly by a stretch, the draws haven't given me what I needed to do more than tread water against his barrage of bingos. I needed a break (or two) if I was going to win this one, and this was the first of two huge breaks I caught. I'm not sure of what he was trying to do here, but if the D fish was his play, it scores 11 more if he drops it off at 6D.
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOTTZ 10F ZOEA. +34 351
#note No L for TOTALIZE, but that's okay by me. This is clearly best but it's only 22% to win, probably because both blanks are still unseen.
>Michael_Thelen: SW H12 ..WS +27 375
>Jim_Burlant: ?BIITTV 15D BITT. +10 361
#note No clue. Apparently H7 NAVE is best, winning 27% and this wins 10. But that's the difference between playing a human and a computer. I was about to catch the luckiest break I caught the whole tournament.
>Michael_Thelen: ?ADEORU 2E .ApED +19 394
#note And now I catch the other break. He has any number of plays that will put the game out of reach, as the only out play I have is VeNI(AL) at D8 - that is, if I even find it. Michael was fixated on the J, and I'm guessing he never saw AVO 5K. To add insult to injury, Michael went over almost 2 minutes before he put this down. JOUkED or JAUkED, which he never found, would have been enough to win. Instead, the unbelievable happened:
>Jim_Burlant: ?INV 1H NeVI +26 387
>Jim_Burlant: (ORU) +6 393
#note Combined with Michael's 20-point time penalty, the final score was 393 - 374, my win. That was certainly not the outcome I expected.
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