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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Tim_Bottorff Tim Bottorff
>Jim_Burlant: AAGIISU -AGIIU +0 0
#note Round 21. Obviously an exchange situation, and this is the best exchange. And a footnote: of the seven times I'd gone first on days 2 and 3, this was the fourth opening rack that I'd had to throw back into the bag...
>Tim_Bottorff: AEVWY 8D WAVEY +36 36
#note ...and it was the fourth time that an opponent replied with a play of 30 or more points (that is, if they weren't drawing 100+ point opening rack bingos out of the bag).
>Jim_Burlant: AEIRRSU E5 AUR. +8 8
#note No great options, but the sim result looks a little wonky - I'm supposed to play 9G RAI and keep ERSU for a whopping 13 points? Seriously? Given all the choices (G5 URAEI, this, G6 UREA) this looks as good as anything else. That said, given his next rack I certainly wish I'd taken the E out instead of the 2x2:
>Tim_Bottorff: FILOOSZ G2 FLOOZI.S +73 109
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEINRS I2 REfINDS +75 83
#note As the game progressed I really regretted this choice. Given my deficit I needed to fork the board for volatility's sake; INDoRSE I3 would have been much better for that reason. 28% to win. Fortunately, I caught a huge break.
>Tim_Bottorff: GIIIIII -IIIII +0 109
#note Given that I didn't fork the board as I should have, it was a huge break that Tim had to exchange. It was refreshing to see that at least one opponent had drawn even worse post-bingo swill than I had been dealing with for much of this tournament.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEOPTY H1 PAY +36 119
#note I saw this, saw 36 points, and looked no further. TOEA might have been a hair better to balance the rack, but Championship Player likes this quite a bit: TOEA wins, and this wins 0.3% less often and sims 0.8 points down. 43% to win.
>Tim_Bottorff: ELOTW D1 TOWEL +20 129
>Jim_Burlant: CCEEORT 1A COT.ER +24 143
#note Darn - I was hoping he'd open the bottom half of the board with something like WINING, as the N for CONCRETE would have been sweet. Oh well. As for this - statically, Quackle says this is a fishing situation, but the sim paints a different picture. This is definitely best. Q indicates 2G FARCE abnd 1A RECTO are also reasonable options. It's now a crapshoot at 50% to win.
>Tim_Bottorff: AV 3B VA. +18 147
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEEHN D8 .HENCE +28 171
#note I had expected him to open and, post-mortem, Tim told me his VAW play was just a means of clawing for points, as he had a consonant overload that prevented him from opening up. I saw this, and wondered if a fish like F7 E(V)E was called for. Statically the fish wins, but the sim indicates my play was correct: this turns 5 tiles, cleans out the E overload, and with the blank unseen, I need to chase it. 54% to win, but not for long.
>Tim_Bottorff: ?DINNRT 13B TR.NDINg +68 215
#note And he told me post-mortem that he fished the blank on his two-tile pick. Best bingo for Tim, and he's 65% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEERS H11 RA.EE +18 189
#note What kind of a draw is this? Sheesh! I initially considered fishes like F8 VEE and F7 EVE but didn't think the board would stay open long enough, so I figured that I'd try to open rows 11 and 15 for bingos. Q says I shuold have stuck to my original plan, in that F8 VEE or F7 EVE were the plays. The appeal of VEE is that I have an R with only one in the bag, but if I don't draw into a word starting in RE, I may be giving a little too much up. This wins 3% less often and sims 4-1/2 points down.
>Tim_Bottorff: OX F8 .OX +31 246
>Jim_Burlant: EEMOOSU 11H .OUE +8 197
#note An annoying rack - it looks like there should be some good scoring with the M, but there's really nothing good avaialble. Q indicates that it's either this, J1 OM (with a hideous leave), or 6G ZONE. I thought it a little too likely he could back hook ZONE with a D, S, or R. 17% to win.
>Tim_Bottorff: ABEEN B10 BEA.EN +28 274
>Jim_Burlant: EGIMORS L6 OGREISM +77 274
#note Only bingo. Back to 32% winning chances in a short sim.
>Tim_Bottorff: FITU 15A U.FIT +27 301
>Jim_Burlant: BHIJLTT 8K B.ITH +30 304
#note Clearly best but losing a little ground - winning chances have reduced to just under 31%.
>Tim_Bottorff: AQU A8 QUA +40 341
#note And when it rains, it pours.
>Jim_Burlant: DJLMNST J10 J.T +26 330
#note Or JUN. Still at 29% winning chances.
>Tim_Bottorff: AGIIKL N2 GLAIKI. +44 385
#note Tim told me post-mortem that he saw HOLDINGS as a possibility, but he didn't have a good block. The play he made here killed any chances I had at a win.
>Jim_Burlant: DGILMNS 15G M.LDINGS +63 393
>Jim_Burlant: DGILMNS -- -63 330
#note Prior to his play of GLAIKIT, I was going to play (FAR)MINGS for 40, which would have forced a rather interesting end game. With that blocked, I figured there was nothing else to lose except spread, so I went for it, figuring this had a 5% chance of being good. BTW, the best legitimate play here is beyond sick: through all the disconnected letters on row 5, S(LA)L(O)M(I)NG for 24. Does any human besides Nigel Richards find that?
>Tim_Bottorff: ADOP M12 APOD +18 403
#note From the point I put down WHENCE, my bingo rack took too long to come together, and the tiles came out in the wrong order after BRITH, as the DGILMNS and DJLMNST racks needed to come in the reverse order for me to force an end game. In short, there just wasn't anything I could do about this; this just broke the wrong way, period. Congratulations to Tim for a well played game and well deserved win.
>Tim_Bottorff: (DGILMNS) +22 425
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