| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Matt_Canik Matt Canik
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEFTX 8G FAX +26 26
>Matt_Canik: DHMORTU 9H HUM +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: AEELOTY 10J YE +28 54
#note As far as the back hooks this gives up, it's pretty much a wash between this and YEA, and the deciding factor for me was that this didn't give up the extra through lane that YEA did if Matt needed an A to bingo. I was a little concerned about leaving myself a hair vowel heavy, but the choices here are all variations on the same theme. Q prefers that I play YO by 0.4% and not even a point at more than 1000 iterations, leaving myself AEELT, presumably for the better defense. Given my next draw, I'm glad I played this.
>Matt_Canik: DOORSTU 11K DUO +14 38
>Jim_Burlant: AEELOOT 7E OLEA +17 71
#note Not happy about having to open up 8A plays, but this rack doesn't leave me much choice. While I think the EOT leave with this choice is better than the ELO leave of TOEA in the same location, I think Quackle is on to something when it prefers TOEA by roughly a point and 1/2% to this, as TOEA will make it a little harder for him to hit at 8A.
>Matt_Canik: ABEORST 12H BOASTER +84 122
#note This is definitely the right play for Matt, as any of his other choices give up 9 or more scoreboard points. That said, Matt knew he was making this game a race to see who could draw an S, and this impacted some of my later choices.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ENOOTT 13C TEsTOON +73 144
#note Thank God the 7th tile was the blank - what on earth would I have otherwise done with this? Anyway - this is the easy play, but it's not best - FOOTNOTE E5 scores 78 and prevents him from dumping a V for good points on his next turn. The game is still a crapshoot in Quackle's eyes, as I'm 51% to win.
>Matt_Canik: EEIIORV 8A REIVE +38 160
>Jim_Burlant: ACEHORZ H12 ..ZO +45 189
#note Wow, what an awesome post-bingo rack! Given the full-house/four-of-a-kind post-bingo swill I'd repeatedly drawn in my other games to this point, this was easily the best post-bingo rack I'd seen all tournament - and this was round 19. 12A ZOEA scores 52, but gives back a whole bunch and leaves me w/o vowels. Quackle confirms that this is a no-brainer - 45 points, AECHR leave...the right draw to this combo could really put me in the driver's seat. This is best, and it's 66% to win.
>Matt_Canik: IKOOPUW 14H .OUK +22 182
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEHIR 15K AREIC +30 219
#note Sigh. With the O column S hook still alive, I felt I needed to keep up with Matt's scoring and tempo, which meant that I needed to turn some tiles and go after an S or the blank. Q says I should sacrifice the 5 scoreboard points and play 12D HIE for 25. I can sort of see that - ACER is definitely more bingo prone than EH, but if the bingo doesn't materialize (and if there was a constant to this tournament, it was that they generally didn't), I might be short-changing myself. Q says this wins roughly 1-3/4% less often than HIE and sims roughly 3-1/2 points down. YMMV.
>Matt_Canik: CILNOPW 12A CLIP +32 214
>Jim_Burlant: AADEGHV 11C HAVE +31 250
#note Three plays are virtually interchangeable at the top of the sim: this, GAVE 11C, and AGAVE 11B. In retrospect, I wish I'd looked a little harder for AGAVE. Though AGAVE scores 29 to this play's 31, it flips the extra tile - critical with both of us trying to win the race to the S. Regardless, this is a very strong play and it's 60% to win.
>Matt_Canik: AINORRW B1 IRONWAR. +76 290
#note Only bingo for Matt, and he's now 60% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ADDEGGI 1A G.GA +21 271
#note I struggled with this position. I saw D(I)GGED but wasn't sure enough of it to try. (It's good). Also - was it wise to leave row 1 alone to force him to decide whether to defend that or the O column? I ultimately decided that the game was close enough that I didn't need to leave the 3x3 open, and there were enough bingo lines on rows 3 and 4 (or even 5) where I could get back into the game. And another factor was in play: the pool was down to 3 E's, and I overestimated the probability that he had one. I thought he was 65 - 70% to have an E, but in reality, after-the-fact probability calculation says he's a hair over 52%. Anyway, since I thought there were at most 2 E's in the bag, I was dead set on protecting my E. Something had to give, but what? Turnover? Protecting my E? After a while I shrugged my shoulders and put this down. Though I second-guessed this choice post-mortem, Q says that outside of DIGGED, this is the best choice I have. That said, it's too bad I wasn't sure enough of DIGGED to make the play: not only does DIGGED score 12 more than this, but it turns 2 more tiles - critical with SSS? unseen. Things were about to get worse.
>Matt_Canik: IQSTTUW O8 QUITS +56 346
#note Ouch! Play incorrectly scored as 55. No matter, he's 87% to win, and my next rack doesn't help any.
>Jim_Burlant: DDEIINN 5B .IND +16 287
#note A decent play, but not best. Q wants me to chase after the blank, I and I think Q is right. I needed to turn 2 more tiles with WINDED. Again, I was too protective of the E. No matter - my winning chances are fading fast. Not quite 4-1/2% to win. WINDED wins just shy of 6.
>Matt_Canik: ABEELTW A12 .LEW +27 373
>Jim_Burlant: DEFIINR 3A F.IN +14 301
#note My best scoring play is 10F FE, but it burns my E, and as I said before, I'm NOT burning my E. Q wants me to live dangerously and play 2D DIF - pfft. Given my options I'm fine with this - will the 4 extra scoreboard points really matter at this stage? The fat lady has not yet sung, but she's getting warmed up: 1% to win. What miracle can I conjure up to win this game?
>Matt_Canik: ABEEIMT 10F BE +20 393
#note Crap. I think it's safe to say Matt has the case E. At least I was rewarded for my decision to protect my E.
>Jim_Burlant: DEILRST N14 L. +4 305
#note Pretty bleak - my best options are all fishes and nothing scores. Short term, this worked. Longer-term...well...it was that kind of tournament.
>Matt_Canik: AEGIMST 7A A.M +17 410
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIRST 4E ARIDEST +63 368
#note Apparently I'm not supposed to bingo here; 4D AIDE plays for 19 and ostensibly wins 5-1/2%. In retrospect, I certainly wish I hadn't emptied the bag:
>Matt_Canik: ?EGINST 2D INGEsTS +66 476
#note I laughed out loud as this came down. Overall, pleased by how I played. Yes, there were imperfections (TEsTOON instead of fOOTNOTE, GIGA instead of DIGGED) but no major blunders. The only questions - would the extra turnover (AGAVE instead of HAVE, DIGGED instead of GIGA, WINDED instead of WIND) have yielded the S or blank that would have let me back in the game? Or a pile of garbage? Regardless, congratulations to Matt - very well done by him.
>Matt_Canik: (DJNPY) +36 512
|
