| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIOTU 8C AGOUTI +18 18
#note Round 8. ADS isn't strong enough as a leave to justify playing short with GOUT. Q agrees - this is best.
>Mike_Early: AABEM E6 AM.EBA +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: CDEEIOR 12B CODE +25 43
#note Given that my only counter is a C, my priority is to take out the E back hook on row 12. This sims way down the list, but in reality that's deceiving - Q indicates that even the 10th choice wins within 1% and sims within 2-1/2 points of the sim winner. Anything's pretty much as good as anything, and it really comes down to your own preference.
>Mike_Early: ADIQS F2 QAIDS +41 61
>Jim_Burlant: EEFILOR 13C FE +23 66
#note Reasonable play, but not best. Q likes D2 FORELEG best, and says that if I missed that, I should have played something like LIEF at G1. After a few hundred iterations the sim starts sorting itself out and this becomes the bronze medalist. 44% to win, but not for long:
>Mike_Early: ?AIINTW 3F .WAITINg +80 141
>Jim_Burlant: EEEILOR -OEE +0 66
#note This mistake was caused because I let myself get sucked into Mike's warp-speed game. I had barely taken a look at my rack when he was already slapping his bingo down, and I didn't take the time to look at the board. There is no reason to exchange here; EELIER or OILIER score 22 at 4C. And if I want to live dangerously, F10 EERIE scores 25. And if I play on row 4, he probably plays for 23 instead of 42 on his next turn. The 4C plays win approximately 14%, and this wins roughly 11.
>Mike_Early: EHY H1 YE.H +42 183
>Jim_Burlant: AEEILNR J3 .REENAIL +62 128
#note Well, that worked out. Sort of. But if I play EELIER/OILIER like I should have on the previous turn,I'm sitting on more vowels and probably not bingoing.
>Mike_Early: EIWZ L1 WI.ZE +42 225
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABMOOP 1L .OMB +33 161
#note Yay, I finally got one right!
>Mike_Early: AEINPTU I9 PETUNIA +72 297
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEOPRR 14G PR.ORAtE +72 233
#note Nothing plays on row 15. The only two bingos that play are this or AIRPOWER. 5% to win.
>Mike_Early: DELRSTU M5 STRUDEL +63 360
#note Mike said post-mortem he chickened out on LUSTRED and couldn't think of RUSTLED. Not that it really matters given my deficit, but this at least helped me save a smidgen of spread.
>Jim_Burlant: EJKLNNR 8L J.NK +69 302
#note Hmmm. This wins the sim but the runner up is a very interesting choice: JUN for 18. It wins almost as much as this, but whatever - I'm barely 4% to win.
>Mike_Early: CFOR N10 FORC. +33 393
>Jim_Burlant: DEGLNRS L12 GL.D +16 318
#note Best.
>Mike_Early: GHI 15E GHI +11 404
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRSY N1 .Y +14 332
#note I was hoping on hope that the C column would stay open one turn longer and that I could at least get the miracle bingo, but I should have reconsidered. Even Quackle, which almost always wants you to fish for the bingo that won't play, says I should just throw in the towel with YIN F10.
>Mike_Early: NOTUVVX C7 V.V +17 421
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRST 15L .IRT +27 359
#note Just moving tiles to end the game at this point.
>Mike_Early: EOOOSTX 14A OOT +12 433
>Jim_Burlant: AELNNSU 15A NE +14 373
#note As usual when playing Mike, my tracking was a mess and I was running out of time. I thought he was setting up XI with OOT (see comment about bad tracking) so blocking that was my priority. Best looks to be ULANS F8 to set up a NEUK/NUKE out if he misses his out play.
>Mike_Early: EOSX H10 SEX +40 473
>Jim_Burlant: ALNSU F8 .LANS +25 398
>Mike_Early: O L8 .O +12 485
>Mike_Early: (U) +2 487
#note Time penalty: -30. Final score recorded as 368 - 487. The shame of this is that, with one glaring exception, I played a reasonable game until time trouble caused me to make the wrong play in the end game and punt my out in two. What we'll never know, though: how does this game progress if I play EELIER/OILIER? |
