| Player 1 |
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#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Eric Eric
>Noah: ?INPSTW H7 INSWePT +78 78
>Eric: ABGLNNZ 11G B.NZAL +32 32
#note Eric: BLAZ(I)NG is awful for defense. considered LAZ(I)NG to set up the B, but the leave was too junky. keeping NG on a board with an open I looks decent.
>Noah: AFHIMNY L7 FAMI.Y +30 108
#note Noah: NAZIFY is a good play I missed.
>Eric: EGKNNPU 13C UNKEP. +30 62
>Noah: AHILNST 9B SLANTI.H +67 175
#note Noah: This is a phony I was pretty sure was good. I got held for awhile, but released. There is a better play here.
>Eric: AEGGNNT 7C NEGAT.NG +63 125
#note Eric: was only about 90% sure on AGENTING. I held SLANTISH forever. I felt it was about 40% good. Problem is, I'm going to want to bingo, and it'll still set up LATHINGS, so my challenge is less beneficial than usual. On the other hand, I'm down by so much, I should trust my gut and challenge
>Noah: BDIIMOO D2 DOOBI. +18 193
#note Noah: ZOMBI J11 and IAMBI 8K are decent plays here. IAMBI looks corret.
>Eric: ACCEQRU 8L .QUA +39 164
>Noah: AEIJMOR C1 RAJ +41 234
#note Noah: I saw ROMAJI but not the 3C spot and that's probably better. Made this play too fast.
>Eric: CCEFIIR 14E IF +32 196
>Noah: EIIMORV 15A MOVER +40 274
>Eric: CCEIIRR 2B R..IC +28 224
>Eric: CCEIIRR -- -28 196
#note Eric: Ugggh. I have this word in my cardbox, because I screw it up all the time. And I still do.
>Noah: DEGIITV E3 GIE +29 303
#note Noah: Even better would be EDGING E5.
>Eric: CCEIIRR G4 CRI. +6 202
#note Eric: Nothing looks good here. This best sets up bingos. CACTI is a so-so option, but I need to catch up quick
>Noah: DEIOTVW N4 DEVO.T +18 321
#note Noah: It seems like he has a good rack with CRI(T), so blocking the bingo lanes seems good. Is it better to just play OW? Keep in mind that spread is of the essence here.
>Eric: CEIOORT B1 OR +14 216
#note Eric: OR looks great, keeping CO for a nice overlap.
>Noah: AEHIRTW A2 TEW +15 336
#note Noah: HAW 10B is the other available play. This is a tough play. Here's the tournament situation: I am down by 31 spread on Eric, needing to win by 16 or more to have a shot at winning the tournament. Carl is also playing Rafi about 50 points behind me. Even though I need to win by 16, it looks virtually impossible that HAW will lose. On the other hand, I need to consider the range of possible spreads Carl can win by. TEW has a decent chance of winning by 100, and Carl isn't very likely to win by 150. It has a much less variant range of spreads. HAW almost certainly nets me a higher average spread, but the variance is also much higher. I talked to Kenji about this a bit (though not this specific situation), and he pointed out that a 50% chance of winning by 150 and 50% chance of winning by 50 is quite a bit worse than a 100% chance of winning by 100. Over the board, I liked TEW. Then on my first analysis I liked HAW. Now, realizing the range of different spreads in various situations, I think HAW and TEW are a lot closer than either time, and I'm not as sure. What do you think?
>Eric: CEIOSTY 3G SOCIETY +90 306
>Eric: CEIOSTY -- -90 216
>Noah: AAHIRRX F6 H.R. +28 364
#note I'm not sure of my reasoning for this play. I really need to get better at taking things more seriously when I'm leading by a lot, as I often make mistakes in these situations. Quackle suggests AHI 10A given the pool. HYRAX is also a decent play as Eric has no good X plays. I don't know what is correct here.
>Eric: CEIOSTY 14A OY +24 240
>Noah: AAEIRSX 12B AXE +33 397
>Eric: CDEISTU O1 CITED +34 274
#note Eric: Quack finds the nice BECRUSTED. At this point, I need a mini miracle. DUCE might be better overall, but I want the extra points, and still draw a miracle bingo to the C.
>Noah: AEILORS 9L .I.E +21 418
#note Noah: I liked the leave and score of this play. I'm not sure what is correct here. Quackle doesn't like this but I don't think Quackle has a clue here either. Quackle likes AZO, but what does that accomplish? EILRS doesn't look that great to me here. I would rather keep AO as decent scoring vowels since there are plenty of Es out. I'm okay with this play but if someone has a disagreement, please tell me. Evaluating which pre-endgame play is best in a position like this just seems really frustrating.
>Eric: ?AEOSUU E7 .E.UA +14 288
#note Eric: Champ says (Y)OU. shrug.
>Noah: AELLORS 12F RO.E +21 439
#note Noah: A tournament-losing mistake, though I guess anyone who takes second makes a lot of those in their tournament. I thought of plays on row 5 briefly and then forgot about them. Then I looked at the endgame and tried to find the best play without those plays in my mind. If I play CELLAR, I win the tournament, simple as that.
>Eric: ?DEOSU 5G .ESOUnD.. +20 308
#note Eric: Sadly for Noah, I find my disconnected 9, and he doesn't have enough spread to win the tourney.
>Eric: (ALLS) +8 316
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