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#player1 JD JD
#player2 Dave Dave
>JD: ABCEITY 8G BAY +16 16
#note This is a really interesting opening rack. I didn't want to play BY because I thought it would be hooked too easily, but I have both the A and E so I will always have a hook available after ABY or BYE. But the best-simming play by a 1/2 point or so is BYE at 8F! ACIT bingoes more next turn than CEIT, and I give myself a nice scoring hook for next turn. Interesting stuff!
>Dave: DEEGO 9E GEODE +23 23
#note in spite of my struggles the rest of the day I was pretty pumped for this game - every game with dave is a big game
>JD: CEINTTW 7H TWIT +28 44
>Dave: GOX 10D GOX +55 78
#note was he setting up the X last turn? It's possible since he could've just played DOGE, but I doubt it
>JD: AACCEIN 8A CAECA +40 84
>Dave: IQ 6J QI +64 142
#note ouch
>JD: IKMNNTU 5K KNIT +30 114
#note since I'm already down, I figured I would try to take a gamble and hope that he might sacrifice a few points to block
>Dave: EMOR 4L OMER +24 166
>JD: EHJMNOU 11B JEON +35 149
#note I saw MHO but I liked the potential of scoring next turn at 8K if I kept the H, and there weren't a lot of good potential spots for the J.
>Dave: BORT 12A BORT +37 203
>JD: EHILMOU 8K HILUM +44 193
#note I felt good about getting back in striking range, but dave jumps ahead again
>Dave: AEEIRRS 3F RERAISE +62 265
>JD: AEFIOTU O1 FOU. +21 214
>Dave: AEPRSSV H1 PE.VS +42 307
#note dave's actual rack
>JD: AEILNTW 5B LAWNIE.T +72 286
>JD: AEILNTW -- -72 214
#note my winning chances if this phony stays: 24%. My winning chances if I just play AWN - 9%. If I lose a turn - 1%. So I need to get away with this 1/3 of the time for this to be the right choice. I thought it was possible I could sneak this by dave because it's good in CSW (lawny doesn't compare in ours), but realistically there was at most a 5% chance that he would take it, so this was a pretty sizeable error even though my winning chances are low if I don't try it.
>Dave: ?AHNRSV C2 ReSHAV.N +86 393
#note bring on the blowout
>JD: AEILNTW A12 .AWL +27 241
#note screw lanes, I need to start cutting spread and play AWN
>Dave: ANZ 6A AZ.N +33 426
>JD: DEEINTY 13A .YE +31 272
>Dave: EFLPU 2A PU.FLE +30 456
>JD: DEILNNT 2J LIN +15 287
#note just playing to minimize spread loss at this point but blocking the right looked bad too
>Dave: ?ADIORT O8 .eDIATOR +83 539
>JD: DEGINST 14J STING. +18 305
#note sigh...best sequence is an out-in-three, unusually - SPED at A1 blocks dave's best play and threatens KITHING at K5, which he has to block. I saw KITHING but didn't think to go out in three.
>Dave: ADEIOU A1 O.ED +27 566
>JD: DE 9K ED +18 323
>JD: (AIU) +6 329
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