| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jesse_Day Jesse Day
>Jim_Burlant: ?NNORTY 8G TONY +14 14
#note Surprised that the sim takes even 500 iterations to sort itself out. Q feels that TONY 8G's front A hook is too much of a defensive liability; it prefers 8G TRY, claiming that it wins roughly 1/2% more often and is allegedly 1/2 point better. Pfft - I'd make this play again.
>Jesse_Day: ABDEGMR F7 GAMB +23 23
#note interesting quackle says I misread this one. I thought I was being relatively defensive, but by playing at 7H I block all the 8s lanes, just leave 7s and drop his bingo percentage from 20% to ~14%.
>Jim_Burlant: ??NRRSV H8 .VeRRuNS +80 94
#note There's nothing along row 11 and the only other bingo is a 60-point RuN(O)VeRS airball* down the H column. As I put this down, I chuckled to myself that, given that I had drawn all of one vowel on my previous two turns, I'd probably be swamped with vowels on my next rack. I'm 73% to win in a short sim, but not for long.
>Jesse_Day: ADEIRTW 15A TAWDRIE. +92 115
>Jim_Burlant: ADIOOOU -IOOOU +0 94
#note I normally don't exchange if I can turn 5 tiles, but the board position is SO bad with either placement of AUDIO that I couldn't see myself putting those plays down. Having said that, if I'd wanted to play through, ODOUR 12D or E11 might have been worthwhile, but the sim indicates that in reality, it's style preference as to whether I should exchange or play through. 12D ODOUR wins barely 0.6% more often than this and the valuation is pretty close. Maybe not perfect, but there's nothing wrong with exchanging out of this rack.
>Jesse_Day: CHIIIRU D12 IRI. +10 125
#note it's pretty close with exchanging, but I figured if I played through I would probably get to score with CH.
>Jim_Burlant: AAADLST E9 AAL +14 108
#note Best - C10 DATA and C11 ALA also worth consideration.
>Jesse_Day: CEEHIPU 14A UP +18 143
#note quackle says I am getting a little too attached to CH. In fact, I bingo 17% of the time with CEEIP and 7% with CEEHI. That's a lot, but I can believe it.
>Jim_Burlant: ADJOSTT C10 JOTA +28 136
#note Or JATO in the same location. J6 JOY also worth consideration, but the duplicated T's left by JOY made me pass that up. 42% to win, but those chances are going to steadily dwindle over the next couple of turns.
>Jesse_Day: CEEFHIT D4 FETICH +42 185
>Jim_Burlant: BDEHIST 11G B.ITH +20 156
#note We post-mortemed this and Jesse liked this play a lot more than Quackle does. Q likes a bunch of plays that score better such as C3 DEBIT and C3 BIDET. The problem I have with those plays is that they still leave me trailing by almost 20 points before his turn. All he has to do on his next turn is extend the Y at J8 and I'm suddenly down 35 - 40 points on a nearly dead board. I felt this was time to sacrifice points and open up an S hook that he might have to defend. Q doesn't like this at all. All that said, regardless of what I put down, my next draw rendered this discussion moot.
>Jesse_Day: ADEGNOO E2 GOAD +23 208
#note GOOD and GOAD are pretty even
>Jim_Burlant: DEEISUU -EUU +0 156
#note Tile drawing fail. Other than J10 ETUI, which still saddles me with a U, the top 6 or 7 options are all exchanges. 19% to win.
>Jesse_Day: EEGNOOT 13G O.TGONE +18 226
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINSX F14 X. +25 181
#note I spent a LOT of time on this position and debated whether I should just fish the X for 25 or play at C6 with AX. The problem I had with AX was, despite my deficit, if Jesse had any sort of five-letter word like FLANK, KENAF, PILAW, or the ultimate nightmare of TRANQ, this game could get away from me and be over already. Q says I should have taken the points with C6 AX, saying it wins 4% more often than this.
>Jesse_Day: CEEIKNU L12 K.EE +18 244
#note I felt like this was the most important move of the game. After XI he was indicating a huge leave. Quackle likes EEK at 10J since it doesn't give back the triple and accomplishes the same goal of blocking BRITHS and the E, but I wonder if KNEE might make it harder for jim to open.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINSS 2B DIN.S +18 199
#note FAIL!!!!! I saw a no-go ADENOSES/ADONISES and he just blocked ANISEEDS, which I'd intended to play. I alphagrammed ADEGINSS and whiffed on the common ASSIGNED. Sad, but true. Whiffing on the bingo, I played this, expecting that his 30-point comeback on row 1 would open up lines for me to play on. Quackle says the bingo wins roughly 44% against his next rack. As you'll see, this was the game-deciding moment. If I find the bingo, I'm still in the hole but I have a chance. Instead, I gifted him the game.
>Jesse_Day: CEINOUV 1F UNVOICE +91 335
>Jim_Burlant: AEIMSWZ - +0 199
#note I was 80 - 90% sure sure this was good, but if it stuck the game was over, so I challenged.
>Jesse_Day: DEILLUY M1 DULY +30 365
>Jim_Burlant: AAEOQRS 6B QA. +32 231
>Jesse_Day: EILLMRW 1A WILE +32 397
#note saving the M for next time
>Jim_Burlant: AEFNOSS 4J OFA. +20 251
#note Just hoping to set up an S hook and maybe save spread with a cheap bingo.
>Jesse_Day: AELMRRU 5J REM +26 423
#note I don't get what quackle is trying to get me to do here.
>Jim_Burlant: EINOSSZ N4 SOZINES +99 350
#note Well, at least that worked out. Can someone please explain how I can see something this uncommon in half a second yet miss a completely common word like assigned?
>Jesse_Day: AEELPRU 15J PL.URA +24 447
#note PUREE is a point better
>Jim_Burlant: E 8N .E +6 356
#note It goes without saying that missing the bingo was key; utterly inexcusable that I missed ASSIGNED. The shame of it is, outside of that miss I played a pretty strong game. But you can't make mistakes like this against players of this caliber.
>Jim_Burlant: (EE) +4 360
|
