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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Ed_DeGuzman Ed DeGuzman
>Jim_Burlant: AIMRRSU 8D MURRA +20 20
#note Thought there might have been something in this rack but there isn't. This is best.
>Ed_DeGuzman: EEERT D8 .EETER +16 16
>Jim_Burlant: CEGIKOS F7 G.OK +19 39
#note I preferred this to the 13C placement for 2 reasons. First, this scores 19 compared to 18 at 13C. Secondly, 13C opens up lines for a bunch of easy 7s while this makes it harder for him to hit anything if he doesn't have an S. Q says 3 plays stand out and are identically strong: 13C ORGIC (I don't like the EKS leave), 10C GECKO, and this. I'd make this play again.
>Ed_DeGuzman: OTY G6 TO.Y +25 41
>Jim_Burlant: CEHIIQS 5E QIS +32 71
#note I assumed that Ed was as close to something with an S as I was. I chose this so that, if he was going to hook a 7, I'd force him to do it on row 14 which would hopefully give me something back on row 15. The sim says this and 14B QIS are equally strong; either is as good as the other.
>Ed_DeGuzman: OW C12 WO +19 60
>Jim_Burlant: CEHIIMU B12 EMIC +27 98
#note Right idea, wrong execution. At the time I liked this because it kept the H for something with CH on my next turn, but that was probably a bit optimistic since he was probably going to play through at A15. Quackle's analysis concurs with mine: HEMIC B11 scores 35 to this play's 27 and should have been the play. That said, I benefitted from this mistake.
>Ed_DeGuzman: ALSUW I4 WAULS +17 77
#note Play incorrectly scored as 18.
>Jim_Burlant: CDEHINU 15B .INCHED +48 146
#note Best - nothing else remotely worth consideration.
>Ed_DeGuzman: ELOV H1 LEVO +30 107
>Jim_Burlant: BEIOTTU 14G BOUT +15 161
#note No really good options available, so I figured I'd groom the rack. Q mostly agrees with me, though it says that 14F OBIT 22 wins a hair more frequently. 5I (A)BOUT also worth consideration.
>Ed_DeGuzman: AA F13 AA. +17 124
>Jim_Burlant: EEINRTY 1H .IENTERY +86 247
#note Only other bingo is ENTIRE(L)Y for 62 at 1B. I'm in the driver's seat - 96% to win.
>Ed_DeGuzman: AF 2J FA +28 152
>Jim_Burlant: ?AABPUV 3K BAP +19 266
#note There aren't any really good options here - best is 3K PUB, with this as a 4-point dog due to the leave since the board position is virtually identical. Q is right; I just didn't consider duplicated A's as being better than AUV?. Anyway - seeing the blank in this rack with Ed obviously grinding through nothing but negative tiles, I was still feeling very confident about this game.
>Ed_DeGuzman: FHIST 4K SHIFT +44 196
>Jim_Burlant: ?AELOUV 13J ULVA +16 282
#note No bingos play. In retrospect it was late (the 8th game of the day), fatigue was setting in, and I was no longer seeing the longer plays. J9 OVULATE looks right to dump the rack, though something like (E)vZONE on row 15 is an even worse threat than the JOIST N10 that this play potentially gave back. Also - given that this pool is 2 or 3 vowels light, (18 c, 11 V, 1?), I don't mind leaving myself EO?. I was due for a rude awakening.
>Ed_DeGuzman: DDDEO O4 .ODDED +27 223
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAEEIO -AEIO +0 282
#note TODDED* is phony (TEDDED is the legitimate word), and I didn't so much as hold; I thought he'd just made a really nice rack dump. Even if I had held, I'd have let it go since I wasn't about to risk losing two turns with this rack. Q says I don't need to exchange, saying that 7F GOALIE and L11 EAVE work fine. I rejected EAVE because I didn't want to unload both E's, and I didn't see GOALIE; I thought the L column could yield a bingo ending in IVE with my blank and all the unseen I's. Q claims I'm still 96% to win and says that this is almost as good as EAVE or GOALIE (this wins 0.8% less often). Maybe so, but this is where this game started getting nervous.
>Ed_DeGuzman: ?JNS N10 JiNS +34 257
#note Ed took a LONG time on this turn and clearly was not happy with this play. We were obviously having opposing rack problems. Q says his winning chances have improved to 15%.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEENOT N6 OE +12 294
#note For the second time in three turns, no bingos play. And, again, I burned several minutes off my clock before looking for other options. To this point I've played a mostly solid game except for letting TODDED* go. But I spent so much time looking for the bingo that didn't play that I told myself it was time to fish or cut bait (I was under 5 minutes by now), so I fished this off and hit the clock. And in the process, I made a mistake so bad I don't need a simulator to tell me that. To any lower-division players asking why this play is so bad when I've fished off 2 and left myself AENT?, take a good look at that unseen pool - I've carelessly created a hot spot where ZA and any number of 3-letter Z words score 40+ on a board that is otherwise dead. Looking at the kibbitzer choices, N6 EON looks best. This is beyond awful and should have cost me the game.
>Ed_DeGuzman: IINX 2D NIXI. +28 285
#Note - catching a huge break since he obviously doesn't have the Z.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGNNT 9C N. +3 297
#note Again, no bingos play, and I burned my clock to down under 2-1/2 minutes. I thought it would be good to open up a line so I would hopefully have bingos on opposite ends of the board. Also - this helped negate some of the threat my mistake on the previous turn created; if autopilots the Z at M7, I'm too likely to bingo out or even if he plays ZA my bingo will outrun him.
>Ed_DeGuzman: AEGILPR E1 P.G +6 291
#note Not entirely sure this is what Ed put down here; I do recall that he left an I in the bag and it's the only 6-point play that makes sense given the pool and how the rest of the game played out. I do know he played for 6 here and he didn't have the ability to block my impending bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGNOT B4 mEGATON +66 363
#note Double-checked the math and realized that even if he came back with LAZE A7, the bingos would win as I was going to have outs all over the board with whatever I picked up from the pool. Once I saw that,I thought bingoing was the correct call. Q doesn't agree with me, saying that I should fish off the O at 1D. I can see why, as there's a good chance that I win by more. But first and foremost, I wanted to win.
>Ed_DeGuzman: AEIILRZ A7 LAZE +62 353
>Jim_Burlant: I E5 .I +11 374
#note Time on my clock when this went down: 00:01. That was too close for comfort; I definitely didn't help myself with my OE fish, but the tile gods made sure I couldn't lose this one.
>Jim_Burlant: (IRR) +6 380
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