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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Howlett Mike Howlett
>Jim_Burlant: AABDFNQ 8G FAB +16 16
#note Takes a few hundred iterations for the sim to start sorting itself out, and there are three plays (this is one of them) that rise to the top. The other 2 are exchange ABFQ and 8D BANDA. This wins the sim by a smidgen, but in reality the other 2 plays I mentioned are practically as strong. Style preference.
>Mike_Howlett: AHI 9G AHI +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: ?AADINQ 10E QADI +29 45
#note I've wanted to play QINDARKA (the only 8 in this rack) for a long time...and I'm still waiting. With no bingos available, the question is, how aggressively to play? The danger with this is that I've potentially given him 30+ back if he has an otherwise inert rack that has a word ending in IT, ID, or IN. OTOH, my other options felt like they still were easy for him to underlap or extend for big points. So, without a really good defensive option, take the points. Quackle agrees with me. 10D QAID and 10G NADA win 2 and 3-3/4% less often and sim 5 and 8 points down on this.
>Mike_Howlett: EW 11F WE +18 42
>Jim_Burlant: ?ANOPTT E10 .AT +36 81
#note No bingos play. Nothing keeps the A that even scores 20; compare that to the 36 points for this play. This is clearly best; nothing else is worth consideration.
>Mike_Howlett: NU D12 UN +8 50
>Jim_Burlant: ?AMNOPT C8 MAiNTOP +79 160
#note Decent choice, but sometimes it pays to remember the old adage: find a good play, look for a better one. This word has an anagram, TiMPANO, that would have scored 85 at C7 and not opened up the triple line. If you can hit a bingo, not miss a triple-triple, and still make a mediocre play, I've done that here.
>Mike_Howlett: ?AEEGLR D3 LEAGuER +73 123
#note Any number of bingo options for Mike: 12G REGLAZE, D3 REGALER, ALLEGER, REGALEs 12G, etc. Best is 12G REGLAZE 75 if the sim is to be believed.
>Jim_Burlant: FINNNOR 5C F.NION +18 178
#note Best is apparently B13 FON. I saw the triplicated N's and wanted to clear more of the. 8A NOMEN would have done a little better. This is roughly a 3-point dog in the sim at 1000 iterations.
>Mike_Howlett: ESTW 15A WEST +35 158
>Jim_Burlant: DINNRRV 12G RIND +15 193
#note This does the best job of cleaning out my rack of any of my choices, but it gives up a hair too much on the scoreboard to do so. 8A VIMEN scores 30 and wins the sim; F2 VIRID is the runner up. This is the bronze medalist, roughly 12 points down.
>Mike_Howlett: AK B10 KA +33 191
>Jim_Burlant: ENOORRV H1 ROVE. +27 220
#note 8A VOMER scores 30. This is the silver medalist, but at a fairly large equity loss. VOMER wins 63%; this wins 59. Perhaps Quackle knows something about his next rack that I don't?
>Mike_Howlett: JOSY A7 JOYS +48 239
#note What does he do with this if I find VOMER on the previous turn?
>Jim_Burlant: EGNOORS J2 ORGONES +71 291
#note Chose this for the better board position - now, if he does hit a 7 on row 13, he's giong to open up for me. Otherwise he's limited to 8's on row 1 and he probably can't put down a 7 if he doesn't have an S. Quackle agrees with me - 76% to win, and that's about to go up.
>Mike_Howlett: BCEEGSX - +0 239
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: DEERVXZ J10 ZE. +33 324
#note Close call between this or K5 DEX. For some reason I was convinced he had an S bingo ready to go and I wanted to add resistance. Q indicates DEX was the play but this is a pretty close second and reasonable choice.
>Mike_Howlett: GI 10J .IG +13 252
>Jim_Burlant: DELMRVX K9 M.X +42 366
>Mike_Howlett: BILY 3A BIL.Y +20 272
>Jim_Burlant: DELORUV L8 VU. +15 381
#note No bingos play. Q prefers A1 LUBED for the extra points - given my lead I'd rather take away his easiest line.
>Mike_Howlett: LOP 4J .LOP +14 286
>Jim_Burlant: DEHILOR M1 HOL. +18 399
#note I don't like the equity plays here; while they score high 20's to low 30's, they don't defend. Q wants me to play B13 HOE for 26. Given this situation I'm fine with this choice
>Mike_Howlett: TU 1M .UT +18 304
>Jim_Burlant: CDEEIIR A1 CE.ID +33 432
#note Now that I don't have any good blocking plays available (TIC for 5 is a little too cheap just yet), I'll play for points. This is best.
>Mike_Howlett: AEIRSTT 13H TASTIER +85 389
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEIRU 8L .IED +24 456
#note Not sure I have these final racks written correctly, but the final score is correct. I know I played VIED and he subsequently went out for 10, catching 8 from my rack.
>Mike_Howlett: CE N13 .EC +10 399
>Mike_Howlett: (AERU) +8 407
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