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#player1 Barb_Hildenbrand Barb Hildenbrand
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Barb_Hildenbrand: HISSW 8G WISH +20 20
#note Barb and I briefly post-mortemed this game and I knew she had another S in this rack. I think she may have had an A; if she did, her best play would have been WISHA 8D, but she didn't know the word. The lesson for the lower-division players viewing this game is to recognize that, to some degree, it's possible to compensate for a lack of word knowledge by setting the board up to your advantage. Even though she didn't know that WISH took the back A, if she was going to play WISH, a better option would have been WISH 8E, to set up an S hook down the D column instead of down the relatively inert F column. This would have been particularly advantageous for her; with her having gone first and drawn 2 S's, I had a 15% chance of having an S, which would have made this a risk worth taking for Barb.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAADLT 7G ALA +16 16
#note I puzzled over this rack for a couple of minutes before I finally gave up on searching for the bingo. Good thing I did, as there are no 7's or 8's in this rack. Her opening play made me pretty sure she didn't know the A back hook to WISH and I wanted to leave the K column open for a potential 2x2 of my own. Quackle agrees with me for the most part, though it likes 7F DATA and 7F TALA by roughly 3 points and 1 point over this, respectively. I can see Quackle's point: putting the D or T out there reduces the likelihood that she'll front hook WISH with her other S and take away the K column that way. Having said all that, this is still a solid play. And given my next draw (all vowels), holding the second consonant left me in better shape than I probably would have been otherwise.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: AE 9G AE +13 33
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEOTU K6 rEADOUT +75 91
#note A handful of bingos available down the K column (this, fADEOUT, OUTrEAD, OUTDATE, OUTDARE), and there's not a single 2x2 to be had among them. Oh well. This scores 75, as do all the K column options. That said, K3 OUTrEAD would have been a slightly better choice. It certainly would have changed how this game played out.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: EEIKRRS F9 KIER +17 50
#note This was Barb's rack. She didn't know KERRIES and didn't see RESTRIKE.
>Jim_Burlant: EIIOOPS 12K .OPOI +16 107
#note And now I make the first of two fateful decisions. Having played 1067-rated Barb before, I wanted to prevent a situation where I'd be grinding through vowel overloads on a board that had no dumps available; the EIOS leave with POI E11/L11 could get ugly on a rapidly dying board if I didn't draw 3 positive consonants on my next rack. I also wanted to leave the E in KIER alone as a possible bingo lane, which ruled out POORI 12C. The other factor I considered was that players at Barb's rating level often respond to 3x3 threats by burning their bingo tiles for 18 - 21 points and keeping the junk just to block the 3x3 I don't have. So I figured that I should take the chance, clear more of the vowel overload and see how things played out. Quackle says 4 plays stand out at the top of the sim: this, POI E11 and L11, and 12C POORI. This wins the sim and Championship Player says it's a very strong bronze medalist. Against an expert I play POORI. Against someone at this rating level, I'd make this play again.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: CEORRSU O8 COUR.ERS +140 190
#note Well, I was partially right - she did burn her bingo tiles to defend the O column. ;-) Kidding aside, with this rack she was going to bingo no matter what I put down on my last turn, as the 7's play all over the board and she told me post-mortem that she knew COURSER. TOPOI merely threw gasoline on the fire. Took her maybe 2 seconds to slap this down.
>Jim_Burlant: CEEIIST L4 ICE +11 118
#note The only 8's in this rack are NICETIES and CECITIES, and they don't play. And this was my second fateful decision. I saw M12 PICE and rejected it - I thought it gave too much back and the board would shut down before I could get back in the game. Too bad I couldn't think of EPIC M11, which sets up a row-15 S hook she wouldn't have been able to block without a V or S. Not seeing EPIC, I felt my best tack was to open up the northeast while preserving a solid EIST, lest I play elsewhere to have her subsequently shut the board down with something like EH or EX L6. This choice was critical towards how this game panned out. The sim is right: EPIC M11 should have been the play.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: DEINTUX 10N X. +25 215
#note This was Barb's actual rack. This is her best play. Of note: 13L NIXE 41 wins almost as often but sims 5 points down.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINST 15H DESTAIN. +80 198
#note I did not autopilot this turn, as I evaluated whether I should trade points and play on row 3 instead of here. I expected that, if I played on row 3, depending on her rack she might play for peanuts on row 15. Post-mortem, she indicated my hunch was correct. Having said that, DETAINS 3G scores 78 to this play's 80, and I would have played there for 78 if there were no vowel placement issues. However, it slots the A at J3 with a bunch of counters - not to mention the Z - still unseen. Q agrees with me - this is best. Up from 15 to 28% winning chances in a short sim, but not for long.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: DEINTTU 4H INTU.TED +62 277
#note If I find EPIC on my previous turn, she still plays her X, I answer with DETAINS/NIDATES on row 15, and would would she be able to do with this? Anyway, this is a very easy-to-miss bingo; this is a very nice find and is hardly 1000-level play! Barb is back to 84%.
>Jim_Burlant: EELNOSU O1 LOU.EN +21 219
#note An annoying rack - no 7's, none of the 8's play, and nothing but one-point tiles. This is a very strong choice but Q says LUNE 3L is better, as it scores 2 more points. I dunno - I'd make this play again - one more tile turned (?QJZ are still unseen) and creates more lanes for her to defend.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: MQW N3 M.W +17 294
#note 10K MOW is a better play with these letters as it takes away HAJ J8, and it doesn't open up an easy play with an A or E at M3. Barb had written her racks down and told me her rack post-mortem. I don't recall it exactly, but she had MQW plus 4 more consonants,and the D wasn't among them. I told her she got away with one here - my opinion is that, for only 17 she had to dump a lot more of this rack or score 30+ somewhere else to justify playing through; without those options available, I'd have to know her rack for sure, but my gut says her play was to probably throw at least 5 tiles, including the Q, back into the bag. When she put MEW down I figured her run was finally over, and that I would get back into the game. I was concerned but still confident. The tile gods had other ideas.
>Jim_Burlant: EEFGISY E11 FEY +30 249
#note Also considered J8 HEY to take out J or Z plays but felt it more important to unload the F. Q agrees - this is best, but it's close - this wins barely 0.7% more often and is barely 1/2 point better than J8 HEY.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: ADQ H1 QAD. +42 336
#note And when it's your game, it really is your game. Given that the bag had 31 tiles in it and 4 A's when she played MEW, her 2-tile draw gave her a 25% chance of landing an A, and a 6% chance of landing the D...and she got BOTH of them. Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EGIMNS 5B GaMINES +83 332
#note I'll see your lucky draw...and raise you an even luckier draw. The 3 bingos that play in this spot - GaMINES, ENIGMaS, and MING(L)ES -all score 83 and win 28%.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: AFR 13L FAR. +29 365
>Jim_Burlant: EGHJLRV 10J J.G +27 359
#note Looking at the pool, I saw there was only 1 E unseen and I assumed that Barb had it. So I emphasized preserving any bingo prone tiles so I could hopefully building a rack that would enable me to land the knockout punch. Q likes a bunch of options that I don't because, in my opinion, they open up way too much and burn my only E in the process: 12A VERGER 28, and C3 GRAVEL. The sim says this is the bronze medalist and that it is the best option I have that doesn't burn my E.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: OZ 9M ZO. +31 396
>Jim_Burlant: BEHLORV 4C HOB +32 391
#note I saw D12 plays and rejected them for various reasons. I rejected HOVE because I didn't want to burn my E and I didn't want to give her an easy line on row 15. D12 HOB - I didn't like giving up the back hook with O unseen this late in the game. Q says D12 HOVE is best and that this sims only 1 point down, though it ostensibly wins 2% less often than HOVE. 24% to win.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: GIPR 14F GRIP +18 414
>Jim_Burlant: BEILNRV 12D V..B +18 409
#note Best - takes the bag down to 1, I have a potential AEILNR 8 on row 2, and scores 18. Up to 40% winning chances.
>Barb_Hildenbrand: AOV 13G AVO +27 441
#note Terrific play by Barb. This is easily her best play.
>Jim_Burlant: EEILNRY M2 YE. +22 431
#note As she was figuring out her previous play, I thought for sure I had this one; I figured that she'd try to block the bingo I didn't have on row 2 for cheap which I would follow up with INHALER C2 to set up outs with either M2 YET or YES J13. Once her AVO play took YES away, I played this both to take out the obvious LAT/TAT M2, and to leave myself EILNR. I hoped that she'd see my cheap out of AEILNR on row 2 and block that, which would allow me to sneak out with C2 INHALER for the win. Unfortunately, for one more turn, she played way above her rating level:
>Barb_Hildenbrand: ALNTT 12D ....AL +27 468
#note Nice play! The game clincher.
>Jim_Burlant: EILNR C2 IN..LER +20 451
#note Hats off to Barb for staying with it and playing a top-notch end game.
>Jim_Burlant: (NTT) +6 457
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