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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 John_Dalton John Dalton
>Jim_Burlant: AAELNRV 8G LAV +12 12
#note Interesting. I initially put down VERNAL but decided I wanted to keep this promising rack together. In retrospect I should have stuck with VERNAL or VARNA. That's because this gives back so many easy back hooks that even the better leave isn't worth all the scoreboard points given up.
>John_Dalton: BEOY 7E OBEY +18 18
>Jim_Burlant: ABEINRU 8A BURIN +26 38
#note I got the open wrong but this one's spot-on. This is slightly better than BRUIN in the same location due to vowel placement. 50% to win.
>John_Dalton: EFO J6 FOE +21 39
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOSTZ E5 OZ..ATE +64 102
#note Yeah, the bingo was blocked, but so what? This is clearly best, and a lot more stylish than an easy-to-see AZOTISE. This wins 4% more often than OZONATES and OZONISE.
>John_Dalton: ACENORT B7 O.TRANCE +74 113
#note Best bingo for John. Other options are B6 COURANTE and 5B CORONATE. John is 44% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: HIILSVW 11A W.IV. +11 113
#note When he blocked my intended play of WHIZ 6B my brain locked. I was so fixated on unloading 2 of the counters that I missed the best play here: 13B CIVIL. 12E SHIV is also a strong choice. This is a stylish play, and it does have the virtue of clearing out the most negative tiles. However, it gives up a hair too much on the scoreboard to the other choices, and Quackle confirms it. This is the bronze medalist, simming 5 points down on CIVIL.
>John_Dalton: ADI F9 AID +25 138
>Jim_Burlant: AHILNSS 15A ASH +29 142
#note Best. 52% to win.
>John_Dalton: A 6E .A +19 157
>Jim_Burlant: IIILNRS -IIL +0 142
#note Board vision failure. No reason to exchange with LIRI C6 available. LIRI wins 46%. Needlessly throwing away 12 scoreboard points wins 40.
>John_Dalton: GLO 13B .LOG +14 171
>Jim_Burlant: DIJNRSU D3 JUN +22 164
#note Strong choice but not best - K8 DJIN scores 33. This is a hair too much given up on the scoreboard just to get rid of the U.
>John_Dalton: AT 3B TA. +20 191
>Jim_Burlant: DDEIORS 5D ..D +10 174
#note Not sure I like Q's recommendation of DIDO K8 here; I think this fish is just fine. The sim says that DIDO is best and this is the second best choice I have. Whether or not you agree with it, I think this worked out better than anything else I could have put down.
>John_Dalton: AMW K5 MAW +26 217
>Jim_Burlant: DEIORST L2 TRIODES +85 259
#note Best bingo. Other options include L7 EDITORS, 12F STORIED/STEROID/SORTIED/EDITORS. 65% to win in a short sim.
>John_Dalton: I 8L .I +2 219
>Jim_Burlant: ?FGKNUY N6 FUNKY +34 293
#note I was feeling lucky and debated between this and GUNKY. GUNKY looked better defensively (only 2 O's to hook it as opposed to 7 unseen E's) but with me sitting on the blank, I thought that I would still have the G to back-hook SIN and that the G would be more bingo-prone in my next rack than the F. Not to mention that FUNKY scored 34 as opposed to 28 for GUNKY. Quackle says this is best and that it's 92% to win. Quackle is wrong, and even if I don't know his rack I should have played GUNKY. Punishment was swift.
>John_Dalton: AEGIRST O2 AIGRETS +99 318
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ??GLRUX 2A XU +22 315
#note Knowing his previous rack, when I drew 5 tiles after my FUNKY misplay, there were 3 I's and 6 E's in a bag of 29 tiles. And I somehow managed, while drawing 5 tiles, to not only not draw an I or an E, but I managed to unload a U and draw the case U. While I didn't know the odds at the time, I was still stupefied that I could somehow draw that many tiles and have this happen. This was a very playable rack but I was so thrown by this (yet another ill-timed low-probability draw in a day full of them( that I just stopped thinking. I wasn't paying attention to what I was doing when I slapped this down out of disgust on auto pilot. C2 LAX or C3 AX are the obvious plays. This is moronic.
>John_Dalton: DEENOP 1A OPENED +62 380
#note Completely deserved.
>Jim_Burlant: ??GILRT 12F sTRiGIL +68 383
#note The only bingo (not counting different placements of the blank). This is best. 30% to win. John held, but wisely let it go; had he lost a turn challenging this, he would have lost the game.
>John_Dalton: EEILQRS K11 Q. +22 402
>Jim_Burlant: CEHIMNO H10 CH.OME +39 422
#note This may have thrown gasoline on the fire but at this point I don't have a win given his final rack.
>John_Dalton: EEILPRS 15F SL.EPIER +61 463
#note 3F REPLIERS scores 74.
>John_Dalton: (EIN) +6 469
#note While exchanging instead of playing for 12 didn't help, that's not where I lost this game. The two key plays were obviously the FUNKY and XU blunders. The correct play of GUNKY wouldn't have prevented the bingo; he still would have hit STAGIER/SEAGIRT for 73 on row 12. But if I played GUNKY, my ensuing rack would have been FLRUX??, from which I would have (hopefully) played LAX C2 to set up a hook for my F on row 1. He probaby replies to LAX C2 with OPENED O10 for 35 instead of at A1 for 60, and my ensuing IT draw yields any number of row 1 bingos (FRUITed, FURTIve, etc.) for 90+. And with my post-bingo rack of CEHMINO, I would have had enough scoring down the O column to clinch the game. Instead, I got this result - completely deserved.
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