| Player 1 |
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#player1 Carol_D Carol D
#player2 Rob_R Rob R
>Carol_D: AEKLY 8H LEAKY +32 32
>Rob_R: AEILNOU 9J LIEU +18 18
#note Quackle prefers K3 UNALI(K)E to this, and I agree. I was looking for it at the time and saw it immediately upon entering the rack, so I don't know how I managed to miss it over the board. LIEU is only about 2.5 points behind, though it feels like a bigger error than that.
>Carol_D: BOTT 10H BOTT +20 52
>Rob_R: ABCEENO 11G CANOE +40 58
#note Find a good play, look for a better play. H10 (B)EACON is glaringly obvious, especially when it is already on my rack, but CANOE is significantly stronger. I'm happy I found this.
>Carol_D: DEMOV 7E MOVED +24 76
>Rob_R: BEEEGLO 8A GLEBE +37 95
#note After 10000 iterations at 2-ply, GLEBE is ahead of GLOBE by 0.07% and 0.1 in valuation. I'm not entirely sure how to quantify this position. EE is not a horrible leave, though obviously not ideal - it seems to be about 0.55 points better (or less worse) than EO. The fact that there are only five unseen E's left may slightly strengthen the EE leave here, but if it does it is marginal at best. I'm not quite sure how to quantify where the tipping point is. The strength of GLOBE is that it gives back a weaker tile for bingoing than does GLEBE - Carol is almost 2% less likely to bingo after GLOBE than GLEBE. In this particular case, it appears to be a wash between defending against a bingo and maintaining a more flexible rack.
>Carol_D: AINZ H10 ..NZAI +54 130
#note Oh dear, that stung a bit!
>Rob_R: EENOSUX 9B OXEN +47 142
>Carol_D: IV E5 VI... +20 150
>Rob_R: EFORSTU 15D OUTF.RES +62 204
>Carol_D: AI I13 AI. +18 168
>Rob_R: CGIJQRT -GJQR +0 204
#note Quackle evaluated 14B JIG as at least 15 points better than any exchange, and inputting a partial opposition rack like AIST (which I figured Carol for over the board) doesn't change things much. I debated about taking the points for JIG, but I estimated that I was likely to be playing catch-up after the next turn and didn't want to fight through CQRT. Of the exchanges, Quackle favors -GIJQRT, though -GJQR holds its own...I certainly didn't want to keep an R here, despite its synergy with the C. I don't think Quackle is sufficiently estimating Carol's chances to bingo after her last play, and I'm not sure quite how to account for that when running the sim.
>Carol_D: AIRSSTU N3 AURISTS +64 232
>Rob_R: ACIORTY 5E .ORACITY +82 286
#note A lucky draw, but I'm still pleased I found the word.
>Carol_D: GNOW O1 GOWN +35 267
>Rob_R: HIJOPRW H1 RIOJ. +60 346
#note Best, though if it had stayed available I probably would have opted for WHIP instead - the chances of drawing an I or blank for RIOJA aren't terrible, and there are other draws (such as an A) that allow the J to score big next turn.
>Carol_D: AGP M1 GAP +28 295
>Rob_R: DHHPRUW 2F WH.P +20 366
#note DUH 12K comes out slightly ahead in win% after 2750 iterations, though I'm not entirely sure why. I like my play, retaining a D to potentially score in the lower-right corner next turn. Additionally, holding the U seems prudent at this point.
>Carol_D: DE 14H ..DE +18 313
>Rob_R: ?DDHRRU L11 DURR +25 391
#note RUDD sims better, I simply blanked on the word...though as it turns out, holding a D ended up being quite helpful.
>Carol_D: AF 6J FA +28 341
#note Take a moment to look for the play here.
>Rob_R: ?DEEHNQ 6B QaD. +33 424
#note Blocking both -ING bingos as well as nines through LO or EX is essential to guarantee the win. QaD(I) does better on spread than HE(LO), the other option that wins 100%.
>Carol_D: EILMNST 14B LIMN +18 359
#note M(O)IL 3G followed by M12 NEST sims best, though there are some cute plays available here like ALEXINES and MESTIZA.
>Rob_R: ?AEEHIN 1A HErNIA +32 456
>Carol_D: EST 13A SET +12 371
#note F12 TEST
>Carol_D: (E) +2 373
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