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#player1 Rob_R Rob R
#player2 Steve_P Steve P
>Rob_R: AHKNOOR 8D HOOKA +32 32
>Steve_P: ADDEHLN I8 HANDLED +80 80
#note As surprised as I was that Steve had the second H, it never occurred to me to take a look at his other choices. D8 (H)ANDHELD 86 would've been awesome. Despite opening the 3LW line, the extra 6 points make it stronger than HANDLED.
>Rob_R: AEFINRR 14B INFRARE. +78 110
>Steve_P: DV H13 D.V +24 104
>Rob_R: BEIJPWX 11E JIBE. +30 140
#note My first tough choice of the new year. Quackle rates my play second best, with 11E WIPE(D) in the lead likely due to the threatened X-bomb at 10F. There isn't a play available that offers a synergistic leave, though BJX makes it extremely likely that rack cleanup will take two additional turns. JIBE(D) at least gives a reasonable shot to be bingo-prone after the next turn, as it is quite likely that two of PWX can be played for points.
>Steve_P: EVY 12I .EVY +20 124
>Rob_R: PRTUWWX 13B XU +31 171
#note Despite the awful leave, Quackle agrees. 31 points is still 31 points.
>Steve_P: ITTT L8 TITT. +9 133
>Rob_R: APRTUWW 7C WAW +23 194
#note Quackle still goes for the points here. Despite what I said for the last turn, in this case I'm willing to sacrifice the 11 extra points for 10F PAW(N) in order to get rid of the UW combination. Quackle favors PAWN by about 2 points, so the UW is worth about -9 here. In this case, Steve just played off 3 T's for almost no points, so I didn't think it likely that he had another one - I liked setting up my own hook here. He is getting likelier to draw an S or blank for hooking HOOKAH, though, and I did not want to be struggling with UW if he did. I'm still satisfied with my play.
>Steve_P: BEILZ K5 BEZIL +36 169
>Rob_R: DEOPRTU L1 POURED +31 225
#note TROUPED would've been helpful!
I spent a long time on this play. Quackle favors POURED to POUTED by a small amount, followed by 12C DUO. The other plays I considered and ultimately rejected were PORTED 6B (Quackle's 4th choice after sim) and 12C PROD. I decided that 3 points was not enough to justify drawing to U, especially when setting up an S-hook I don't have, and PROD despite the score was not likely to be strong next turn on this board.
The problem with playing short, with DUO or Quackle's wild-card idea of 10I (N)U, is that drawing a bingo isn't really helpful on this board unless I draw an S or blank as well. That more than anything else decided me.
>Steve_P: AO K11 A.O +16 185
>Rob_R: GGIILPT 9C PIG +22 247
#note F4 GIGL(O)T sims best. I looked at the spot, but didn't come up with the word.
9C GIG is valued 5 points higher than PIG. This is simply a mistake on my part, I undervalued the synergy of ILPT vs. GILT.
>Steve_P: CNN 2K C.NN +12 197
#note Steve just can't seem to catch any breaks from the tilebag so far.
>Rob_R: EEGILOT 1L .OET +22 269
#note Best. Despite only being up 72 points, Quackle estimates my winning chances at about 80.6%, demonstrating the devaluing of the blanks and S's on this board.
>Steve_P: AM 10F MA +24 221
>Rob_R: ?EGILRU H1 GUERIlL. +77 346
>Steve_P: ACENRST 3C REASC.NT +78 299
#note Quackle is still pessimistic about Steve's chances, giving him about 6% to win.
>Rob_R: ?AEEOOQ -EOOQ +0 346
#note Surprisingly, Quackle estimates that keeping the Q on the exchange is best. My exchange is about 5.5 points behind -EEOO.
>Steve_P: ASY 6G S.AY.. +17 316
>Rob_R: ?AEGILM 1A GLEAMIn. +86 432
#note If they gave style points, and if QUESTING weren't a possibility, I would have loved to play N1 (EN)MELInG. This appears to be the winning play.
>Steve_P: IQ 10B QI +35 351
>Rob_R: EEFIOOS 2E OF +32 464
>Steve_P: NORSTU 12D TORS +27 378
>Rob_R: EEIOS J14 SO +19 483
>Steve_P: NU 10L .UN +5 383
>Steve_P: (EEI) +6 389
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