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#player1 q q
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>q: ACDKLOT 8D CLOAK +28 28
>Jim_Burlant: ABBIJLR G7 J.B +23 23
#note Not much to choose from here. For reference, the next best choices, BIB and RAJ at 9G sim 8 and 9 points down and win 3% less often.
>q: DENORTU D3 TROUN.ED +72 100
>Jim_Burlant: ABDILPR C9 PADRI +32 55
#note While this was a solid choice (second best in the 2-ply sim) there may have been a better play available, depending on whether you trust the sim or championship player: PIBAL C9. Besides scoring 34 to this choice's 32, the DR leave with PIBAL is much better than the BL leave from this play. I chose this because I couldn't think of PIBAL. Had I seen PIBAL I would have put it down. The sim says PIBAL is best; CP says this is best, winning roughly 24%; this wins almost 22 and sims nearly 6 points down. I personally think the sim is right here; PIBAL should have been the play.
>q: ACIIOOR B10 CIAO +31 131
>Jim_Burlant: ABGLSUZ A7 ZAGS +49 104
#note I can't keep the S and score more than 26, and this choice yields 49, making it a no-brainer. For that many points with nothing else coming close, I'll worry about cleaning my remaining BLU out on the next turn. 26% to win.
>q: EHIORTW 4B WO.THIER +65 196
>Jim_Burlant: BDLRRSU H1 BLU.R +21 125
#note Quackle indicates mild board vision failure occurred on my end, in that I could have played these same tiles for 6 more points with BLUR D12. I can see Quackle's point - opponent has just bingoed and has drawn a fresh 7, meaning that unless my next draw is truly horrendous, I'm guaranteed at least one triple on the next turn (H1 or something on row 15), and I give myself 6 more scoreboard points this turn while doing so. Championship Player's evaluation of this position makes a lot more sense than the 2-ply sim. The sim says this is a 6-point dog, which strikes me as being ludicrous since it ignores the extra volatility of opening up the 3x3, which it typically values at 4 points. CP says this is not quite a 2-point dog and wins 1-1/2% less often. 13% to win.
>q: ?EFHNTY B1 THE.Y +28 224
>Jim_Burlant: DEFIIRS H8 .IF +14 139
#note Truth be told, I just shotgunned this position and fished, opting for this over 2F FIL so as to keep 8's available on row 2 and to open up an S hook on row 11. While both the sim and Championship Player say this is best, there was a non-fishing alternative worth strong consideration: 12A R(AR)IFIED 30. The consensus bronze medalist, RARIFIED sims 4 points down and wins 2% less often than my play. I would agree with that analysis, as RAREFIED scores "only" 30 and leaves me sitting on a more or less random rack, while DEIRS plus 2 is extremely likely to bingo on the next turn. Given this board, if RARIFIED scored 36 or 37 relative to the 14-point fish that I just made, it would be worth it to turn the rack and start over. But Quackle is telling us that the 16-point difference just isn't enough here to justify blowing the rack apart. 12-1/2% to win.
>q: ?FGNNPV -FGNV +0 224
>Jim_Burlant: DEEIRRS 11F RESIDER +77 216
#note Any of the row 11 bingos score 77. This was a minor mistake that could have really burned me for two reasons. First, this takes a front P hook; something like PAY comes back for 38. Also, this takes a back S. Q says this is pretty mild as mistakes go, but I should have looked harder. Best looks to be SERRIED (I didn't recall the word until after I put the play down). Fortunately, I don't get burned for this.
>q: ?AEENOP 1H .EANPOlE +92 316
>Jim_Burlant: DEIMOQY 3G Q.EY +51 267
#note I'd normally have played off the O with QUOD and kept the E. But I wanted to unload the Y, and a look at the unseen pool showed E (the most prevalent tile in the remaining pool) was twice as likely a draw as the O. Hence, this choice. Both the sim and Championship Player agree, this is best. 9.3% to win.
>q: EEIILOT 1A E.OILE +21 337
>Jim_Burlant: DGIMNOS K6 SMIDG.ON +62 329
#note The only playable bingo - roughly 30% to win.
>q: AEIITTU L1 .TUI +12 349
>Jim_Burlant: ?EFGNVX 8J F.XiNG +72 401
#note Luckbox! Without a high-scoring X play like AX or OX E2 available, it's definitely worth it to use the blank here, given that I can put down a bingo-equivalent power tile bomb on row 8. I chose this over VIXENS for 3 reasons. First, this scored 72 to 69 for VIXENs. Secondly, the pool only had one E left, which I assumed (correctly, it turns out) that opponent was sitting on. Third, given that there still were bingos in the unseen pool, it was slightly more defensive to put ING as through lines than ENs. Quackle agrees, and it isn't even close; Championship Player says this is best, winning 75%; VIXENS wins 3% less often and is a 14-point dog in CP's eyes.
>q: AAEITUW J13 AWA +16 365
>Jim_Burlant: AELNSTV M11 SALVE +25 426
#note Once the duck blocked my LEVANTS bingo, this became the most involved position of this game. Fishing off the V with VAN 13J was very tempting, as a check of the pool revealed that practically every tile in it yielded a rack with a 7 in it. HOWEVER...the trick of this position was that not only would the 7's not be playable, the 8's wouldn't, either. Since fishing was no longer an option, a recheck of the pool showed the knee-jerk LEVANT 15G 30 could have easily lost, as opponent was still close enough that an out bingo down the N column (NOMINATE/ANTINOME, VENATION/INNOVATE) could win. So, not only did I have to score, but I had to do that and shut down any chance of an out bingo on this board. This blocked everything I could find (I didn't see anything through the G) down the N column, and it also provided some resistance on row 15. This play pushed my lead to 61 points, meaning I could withstand something like opponent's probable comeback of VENA 15M. This is not one of the original kibbitzer choices, but it immediately shoots to the top of the 2-ply sim (this game is going to be over in 2 turns, no need to run more plies), winning 3% more often despite sacrificing huge valuation.
>q: AEINTUV 15I N.IV.TE +42 407
>Jim_Burlant: MNOT 7K .OM +25 451
#note Best - too many spread points given up if I go out with MONTE O11 for 8.
>q: AU G11 .AU +4 411
>q: (NT) +4 415
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