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#player1 Matt_Hodge Matt Hodge
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Matt_Hodge: DIJNN 8D DJINN +30 30
>Jim_Burlant: AFGHOVX 7F HOAX +33 33
#note Yikes! So much crap in this rack that it literally took me almost 3 minutes to find this play after I (correctly) concluded that none of the options that unloaded the negative tiles (i.e., the F and V) scored anything. As dreadful as the FGV leave was with this choice, my feeling was that 33 points was 33 points and that, assuming I landed at least one vowel on the ensuing 4-tile draw, I could start to clean this up. Q agrees - this is best, and the next best choice, VANG G6, scores 11 and wins 2% less often.
>Matt_Hodge: ORRU E8 .UROR +24 54
>Jim_Burlant: FGLSTVY -FGLVY +0 33
#note Seriously considered FRY 12D or FOGY 11D but couldn't bring myself to play for less than 20 and leave myself so consonant heavy. I don't know that I entirely agree with Quackle. Championship Player's first choice is VANG H6. Really? Play for single digits and leave FLSTY? No thanks. I forgot about the Y back-hook to DJINN, so I missed its second choice: (X)YST I7 32. Championship Player says this wins within 0.1% and sims within 1 point of XYST. XYST or this looks right IMO.
>Matt_Hodge: EPW 6H PEW +30 84
>Jim_Burlant: AEKSTTY 5I KAY +39 72
#note Having exchanged on the previous turn, I was fixated on not letting Matt overlap the X on consecutive turns. Thus, I chose this instead of 6D YAK. I saw the potential O back hook, but figured it was more important to take away his most probable scoring play. Championship Player says this is best and that 6D YAK is a 4-point dog and wins almost 2% less often. Maybe if we played the game 1000 times, but this choice was the inflection point that set this game in motion.
>Matt_Hodge: CEFNORU L3 FROUNCE +91 175
#note If I play at 6D on my last turn, what does he do with this?
>Jim_Burlant: EEHPSTT 6D HEP +28 100
#note Tough call. The best equity play is apparently D11 TEETH 30. I saw it, but didn't want to burn both my E's. I also felt it devalued my S a bit too much by partially obstructing a potential back-hook to JUROR. HET or THE in any number of locations balance the rack better, but those plays give up a little too much on the scoreboard. By process of elimination, it left me with this. I wasn't thrilled about keeping duplicated T's for the second straight turn, but they're not the worst thing in the world. And this did work out. Championship Player says that this is one of 3 plays that stand out - its first choice is TEETH, M1 THE 22 wins 0.6% less often, and this wins identically to THE and sims with much better valuation. 14.2% to win.
>Matt_Hodge: DIV 10J VID +29 204
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEGSTT 13C GESTaTE +79 179
#note All other bingo options (TERGITES, GRISETTE, GREATEST) score 68 on row 12 while this scores 79. While this wins 27% and was the choice I had to make, all it did was convert his next rack from a no-go into 74 points.
>Matt_Hodge: BEGOSTU 12I OUTBEGS +74 278
#note And if I play any of the lesser bingos on the previous turn, at best he's playing for 30 instead of 74 here. Sigh.
>Jim_Burlant: EIINOSY N10 YO.INI +36 215
#note I debated whether I should play YOGIN and keep the I, or turn the extra tile and slot the triple. For some irrational reason I convinced myself that it would be too easy for him to shut everything down all at once if I didn't play off both I's. Also - while I'd tracked correctly, I failed to take into account that 2 of the 7 unseen I's in my tracking sheet were in my rack, so I thought he was more likely to have an I than he was. Between all that and the fact that I was feeling a little pressure to match his tile turnover (remember, he responded to my bingo with a bingo of his own), I opted for this. This is by no means a bad play, but it's not best. YOGIN would have been slightly better. 10% to win, and YOGIN doesn't win 11%.
>Matt_Hodge: ACIO O7 CIAO +23 301
>Jim_Burlant: EIMNNST 5B MIEN +21 236
#note Q wants me to fish with 15M NIM for 15, and this was the first thing I saw. While NIM's EINST leave is nice, the problem with playing NIM is that, assuming he does something to gum up rows 10 and 11, where is my resulting bingo going to play? On row 3 through the F? The other options are fishes that, assuming he takes row 15 out, my only potential bingos are going to be airballs* on rows 10 and 11, and my deficit is too great to fish to play for 60 on the next turn. I felt the best thing I could do for myself was pepper the board with open lines, and score while doing so. This outscores any of my other choices. Lastly - while I normally wouldn't want to break up this rack, there were enough AEI (and the blank) still unseen that I felt I had to take that chance. Q doesn't like this much, but as you can infer from what I've written, I don't think the duck's suggestions are going to help too much here. YMMV.
>Matt_Hodge: ARV 15L VA.R +33 334
>Jim_Burlant: EEMNSTW D11 WE.T +23 259
#note Right idea, wrong execution. WEEN is slightly better due to leave considerations; I talked myself out of it. M2 WEEST scores 42 but burns all the ammo and sims identically to this play. This little equity slip cost me whatever remaining chance I had at this game, as you'll see in a second. 6% to win.
>Matt_Hodge: AB H13 .AB +15 349
>Jim_Burlant: AELMNRS B2 SLA.MER +34 293
#note And if I'd played WEEN as I should have, I'd be sitting on AELMRST and TRAMMELS would play for 86 at B2, which would put me back in the game. Instead I have to figure out what to do with this no-go. Just as I was doing when I played MIEN, I was trying to keep the board alive, and this play both scored very well (my only better scoring option is MENSAL 15A) and makes it impossible for him to shut the board down in one turn. While it's obviously a common word that is hardly an expert level find, this is a very strong play that both scores well and makes it impossible for him to defend the board. This is not one of the original options, and it winds up simming better than everything but MENSAL, and I think this does a better job keeping things alive than MENSAL does.
>Matt_Hodge: IQ A1 QI +35 384
>Jim_Burlant: ?DINTTZ 4L .ITZ +23 316
#note Again, I think Quackle should be taken with a grain of salt. Yes, I saw C9 ZIT (2-ply sim winner), but that struck me as the kind of play that wouldn't help me. If I'd played that, he'd have inevitably taken out the A column for 25 or 30, and my bingo, if it even played, would have only played for 66 - 70 on row 3 - nowhere near enough given my current 91-point deficit. Admittedly, this only scores 23. When I was deciding what to do, I figured that he was going to take out the A column, which would in turn allow me to score 42 at O1 and create a second bingo line in the process. And there was the slim possibility that I could lure him into a mistake. Q prefers ZIT C9 for the extra points as well as and a bunch of fishes that are all but guaranteed to yield yet another no-go. I'd make this play again.
>Matt_Hodge: ADGO A7 DAGO +27 411
#note Matt took a LONG time on this turn. He told me that he did have an O1 play and he almost put that down (see my previous comment about possibly luring him into a mistake), but he had to take out the A column first and foremost. Smart play by Matt.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEILNT O1 DIT. +42 358
#note This is the other reason I liked my RITZ play on my previous turn. Even if I can't win the game at least I can salvage spread. This is clearly best - takes the bag down to 1, scores 42 (nothing else even comes close) and now I have two lines on which I can bingo out for the win if I have the right draw.
>Matt_Hodge: AEFLOSU N2 LA. +12 423
#note Matt took quite a while here - he initially put down LATE N2, then realized it blocked nothing if I had an 8 ending in ED, front hooking late to make E(LATE). He put a few different plays down, then he realized that I also had potential 8's starting at 3B. Ultimately he put this down.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AELLNR 3B .ANgRELL +68 426
>Jim_Burlant: ?AELLNR -- -68 358
#note Desperation - the only way I can win is if this is good, so I figured it was worth the try. There are no bingos, and all my options score low to mid teens.
>Matt_Hodge: EEFOSU B10 FOU +27 450
>Jim_Burlant: ?AELLNR 3B .ANgREL +14 372
>Matt_Hodge: EES 9G SEE +15 465
>Matt_Hodge: (L) +2 467
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