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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: ADEHIOR -ADEH +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: ADIIIUY -IIIUY +0 0
#note Sitting on this, I was quite relieved that Darrell had to exchange. As for what to throw away and keep, I thought AD was better than starting completely from scratch. Statically this choice does poorly but over time it percolates to the top of the sim. Q says that this, exchange 6 keeping D, exchange 5 keeping DI, and exchange 7 are equally strong plays.
>Darrell_Day: IQ 8G QI +22 22
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEEOR 7H OE +5 5
#note Drove myself crazy looking for the 7 that wasn't there and eventually settled on this. This is best. AE in the same location wins roughly 1% less often and sims nearly 2 points down.
>Darrell_Day: AFG 6I FAG +14 36
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEORX 5K AXED +30 35
#note No bingos play here. I considered and rejected GOX K6 and AX 5K before reluctantly putting this down. I thought GOX was too cheap of a play (scores 11) when I had other scoring options. My problem with AX that was that, even though it kept ?E, it was WAY too likely that Darrell had an E and it was all but certain he would back hook it. I didn't like this either; while it scored well, it blew the rack up and was also sure to give back at least as much as I got. After a while, I shrugged my shoulders and figured that, if I had to give back something big no matter what, I might as well take the 30 points, move forward, and try again. Q wants me to fish with GOX, or hold the X with K4 DAGO or DOG. Problem I have with those plays is that I want to bingo soon, and keeping the X gets in the way of that. Q says this is a 9-point dog and says it wins nearly 4% less often than GOX. Q does say AX 5K is a strong runner up - perhaps I should have gone with that <>.
>Darrell_Day: ER 4K RE +26 62
>Jim_Burlant: ?CINORU M4 d.CURION +63 98
#note Couldn't think of COeNURI, which scores 71 at 9A. Didn't even see INDUCTOR N3. I didn't like this due to the possibility of a huge comeback at N10, but I whiffed on all the better plays. Fortunately I didn't get burned.
>Darrell_Day: EJT L10 JET +31 93
>Jim_Burlant: DEEFGRY 13I FEYER +41 139
#note Lots of options and I'm a bit surprised by the sim results. I figured that 41 points and taking out the E back hook to JET would have been a no-brainer. Quackle disagrees. It says the DG leave is so bad relative to the EFR left by 8K GYRED (which I couldn't think of) that it docks me nearly 13 (!!) points in the sim. I'll concede that EFR is a bit better than DG, but come on - 13 points? Whether or not you agree with Quackle or me, one thing is certain - this prevented his next play from being a lot worse.
>Darrell_Day: DEINPRT 12D PRINTED +80 173
>Jim_Burlant: ADGINST 8L G.ID +24 163
#note A solid choice, but not best. Best per the duck is to fish with L3 DEX. In reality the sim makes clear that, like my opening exchange, this position is a matter of stylistic preference. The top 5 choices (of which this is one) all win within 1/3% and sim within 1 poins of each other. Other options include GRAD 8L, 8L DRAT, 8L DRAG.
>Darrell_Day: AOZ 11C ZOA +32 205
>Jim_Burlant: ABHNOST 14J BO +27 190
#note Saw BOS and BAS but wanted to save my S so I could hopefully hook it on the next turn on row 15. Q says I should have played it this turn for the extra 13 points; I think Q is right. Q says 14J BAS is best, with this simming roughly 8 points down. BAS wins 39%; this wins 34.
>Darrell_Day: GMU 15K MUG +15 220
>Jim_Burlant: AHLNSTT N7 H.NT +28 218
#note This is best - next best is TINT in the same location. 43% to win.
>Darrell_Day: EINNV 10E VENIN +16 236
>Jim_Burlant: AAILSST O10 ASSAIL +32 250
#note I normally don't like burning both S's on a play that only scores 32 points at this stage of a game. But take a look at this board - if I take this line out, the S has practically no value. Between that, the 6 tiles turned (essential with the blank unseen) and 32 points it puts on the scoreboard (nothing else available scores more than 24), this was my choice. Q agrees - this is best, nothing else sims within 4 points and wins within 2-1/2% of this. From this point forward, the game takes an unusual turn, and for the most part, Quackle's recommendations go out the window, as you'll soon see.
>Darrell_Day: ERU J8 RUE +16 252
>Jim_Burlant: EKORTTW L3 K.. +14 264
#note Not one of the original choices, it sims mid pack. I wanted to make sure that, with Darrell continually dumping bingo prone tiles, that I took away the one decent line he had on row 3. I was aware this still allowed the possibility that he could hit something ending in CK, but that was a lot less likely than any of the zillion blank bingos in the pool ending in ED or DS. Predictably, Quackle wants me to play on row 13 and create openings from which I may not be able to recover.
>Darrell_Day: W 11K W.. +12 264
>Jim_Burlant: EORTTTW N2 TRO. +13 277
#note Again, Q should be taken with a grain of salt, as it wants me to play 13B WOT with SS? still unseen. Uh...no thanks. I saw all of Q's preferred plays (WOT, WET, TOT, WORT, TAXED) and rejected all the row 13 plays because they gave up a probable game losing play. I saw TAXED but thought I needed to turn more than 1 tile to hopefully clear more of this rack out. Looking at the kibbitzer, the only safe options I have as far as I can tell are this and TAXED.
>Darrell_Day: BO O1 BO +14 278
>Jim_Burlant: EELLTTW 5J T.... +15 292
#note Not sure if I wrote this rack correctly.
>Darrell_Day: Y E10 ...Y +10 288
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEILT 13C DE. +19 311
#note Q wants me to open with C9 LEZ - I'd rather force him to open.
>Darrell_Day: P 14N P. +8 296
>Jim_Burlant: AEIILTW C9 WI. +19 330
#note Yes, I saw the obvious risk. I figured he was close to something but also figured that if I put this down he had this turn to win the game or it was over. And, worst-case, if he did hit, I was keeping a well-balanced combination with him about to open all sorts of lines. I was about to catch a huge break.
>Darrell_Day: ?AILMSU B3 StIMULA +69 365
#note This is phony - the legitimate playable bingos in this rack are MUSIcAL and ULtIMAS. This mistake cost Darrell the game.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEILTV 3B .ALIVATE +76 406
#note I held STIMULA*; I couldn't think of ULTIMAS, but STIMULA* looked wrong. Then I saw what it gave me back and had no reason to challenge. When he put this down, Darrell was looking at an unseen pool of AAACEEHILNOOSTV. He was quite shocked to see that I had this rack out of that pool.
>Darrell_Day: ACELOOS A8 ACES +32 397
#note Best is ALECS for 36.
>Jim_Burlant: HN H2 N.H +10 416
#note Plays at 4A for 11.
>Jim_Burlant: (LOO) +6 422
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