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#player1 Rich_Moyer Rich Moyer
#player2 Noah Noah
>Rich_Moyer: EEW 8F EWE +12 12
>Noah: EGLMNRY F6 YL.M +17 17
>Rich_Moyer: ?ABEIOR 10E ISOBArE +72 84
>Noah: ?EEGNPR K4 EPERGN.s +90 107
>Rich_Moyer: GHOTU H10 .OUGHT +39 123
>Noah: BDNOVVZ 4H ZON.D +50 157
>Rich_Moyer: ACFY 9I FA.CY +31 154
>Noah: BIOOQVW -BIOOQVW +0 157
#note This was an instatrade. BOW is actually worth playing though.
>Rich_Moyer: IRT H1 RIT. +39 193
>Noah: EEIKLNO 8M OKE +26 183
>Rich_Moyer: GP 6J P.G +12 205
>Noah: EIILNNT 13A LENITIN. +70 253
>Rich_Moyer: EE A13 .EE +9 214
>Noah: ACDEFLR B10 FRE.D +40 293
#note Thouhgt about FREED, FACED, and EF. EF makes bingos with 29/43 tiles, Rich probably has bingo tiles plus sometimes he will block my bingo so I think it's fair to lower this number to about a 60% chance of bingoing afterwards. The other nice thing about EF is that it doesn't open any new sevens lanes for Rich. This opened up a bit less than FACED but at the cost of points and a better leave. I don't think I should've playeed this because the board is already quite good for bingos and scoring so the spot FACED opens is not as important as it might be in other situations. Then there is also the decision between EF and FACED. I can't really see myself sacrificing the points.
>Rich_Moyer: EHX 5D HEX +44 258
>Noah: ACLRTUW D1 WAUC.T +36 329
>Rich_Moyer: ABL 1A BLA. +27 285
>Noah: IILRTTU A7 TITI +17 346
#note Missed TUI :/.
>Rich_Moyer: IQ 12D QI +46 331
>Noah: AAILNRU 5I NI.A +18 364
#note ULAN 7E and PILAU 5K both look like better plays. I like PILAU because it blocks the E.
>Rich_Moyer: UV B1 .UV +12 343
>Noah: ALMORUV L11 OVUM +19 383
#note Chickened out on HUMORAL.
>Rich_Moyer: DO G8 .O.D +17 360
>Noah: AADJLRR O4 JARR.D +22 405
#note Okay so he actually played ISOBArE not IsOBARE but I am too lazy to change it and change all my commentary at this point. So the actual pool is AEINOORSSS. Looking at possible bingos and other plays he could've had with WOOD, I narrowed his range down to INORS, AENOS, AEORS, AEINS, AEIRS, EIORS, EINOS. (Do you disagree?). This means he must have an S, reducing the pool to AEINOORSS. The strongest plays here looked to be JARRED and JURA. JARRED always loses to a bingo. What about JURA? Well, JURA sets up a good lane for scoring and puts me up 40 with one in the bag. He's very unlikely to pull off a one tile fish for plays through two different bingo lanes. The only problem is him bingoing. If he does bingo it's going to be for 59 pretty much all the time (I'm always screwed after ROSARIES or something). Looking at plays that I will draw with ADLR, they will probably mostly score 27 or 30 with a corresponding -8 or -6 penalty for me as Rich plays his last tile. Let's see where Rich can score next turn, with any of AEINORS after JURA and my play. He will probably win if he can score more than ten points (30-6-14 = 10). AOS do this for him. N and R can score exactly ten points. E and I won't do it for him. I wrote a bunch of stuff which shows that JURA only helps if he has AENORSS and draws the I, in which case it wins. Thus I should play JARRED because it blocks enough bingos. There is more than that but I deleted accidentally so too bad.
>Rich_Moyer: ENOORSS 7D SO. +18 378
>Noah: AAAILS 14J LA.AS +18 423
#note Wasn't sure of LAMIAS.
>Rich_Moyer: ENORS 3F NO.ES +17 395
>Noah: AI 12L .IA +6 429
>Noah: (R) +2 431
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