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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Ben_Withers Ben Withers
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEINO -OE +0 0
#note I opted to exchange out of this due to unavoidable vowel placement issues. If my rack were something requiring me to unload EN, I'd play EN 8H or NE 8G without reservation. But the vowel placement issues with OE make it too easy for Ben to overlap with any collection of early game clunk; in other words, I play for 4, he overlaps for at least 25 (if not more) and now, if my bingo even plays, it will score in the low 60's on rows 7 or 9 and probably give him a nice comeback play, thus negating the advantage of my bingo. I acknowledge that there's always the possibility that Ben has an opening-rack J, Q, X, or Z play at 8D, but I think those are much less likely than the overlapping scenario I described. The sim says OE 8H is best and that this wins 0.1% less often and sims wiith 0.4% less equity.
>Ben_Withers: ABLLU 8D BULLA +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: ADEFIIN F3 FINIA.ED +68 68
#note Both this and the G3 placements score 68. I chose this because the G3 placement gave back potential plays at H1 where this does not. Q agrees - this is best, winning 62% in a short sim. G3 placement wins a little more than 1% less often and sims almost 2.5 points down.
>Ben_Withers: UX E4 XU +31 51
>Jim_Burlant: ADORSTT 9C DOT. +13 81
#note This is a strong choice, but it's not quite best - it gives up a little too much on the scoreboard for the sake of rack grooming. Q really likes OXID 4D; while I have an S, I think it's too risky given the 11 unseen E's. However, there was one play available that I didn't look at very closely: TAXI 4D. TAXI is best and this wins roughly 1% less often and sims 3-1/2 points down. TAXI should have been the play.
>Ben_Withers: GHNW H6 WH.NG +12 63
>Jim_Burlant: AOQRRST -OQR +0 81
#note Outside of TUTOR E7, the rest of the top 5 options are all exchanges since there's no Q play and anything else requires me to break up too much of what was a promising rack. Q agrees - this is the best exchange. Exchanging QR is also a strong choice.
>Ben_Withers: ALOSSTZ -ALOS +0 63
>Jim_Burlant: AAEERST 7H .ETAERAS +63 144
#note The only bingo. 76% to win in a short sim.
>Ben_Withers: EENORSZ M7 .EZONERS +104 167
>Ben_Withers: EENORSZ -- -104 63
>Jim_Burlant: ADEFIMN 6L FAME +34 178
#note After challenging Ben's phony off the board, I got fixated with trying to make sure he couldn't play REZONES M8. And, in the process, I outsmarted myself. While this blocks that play, it has a major shortcoming: if I'd bothered to look more closely at the board, I'd have realized he still had REZON(ES) O1 anyway and that I should simply play my rack and accept that he was going to cash the Z for at least 50 no matter what. And courtesy of my mistake, he gets to keep his S. The best play here is a no-brainer, and it's what I first put down and talked myself out of: FAMINE(S) O1.
>Ben_Withers: EENORSZ O1 REZON.. +51 114
#note <>
>Jim_Burlant: DIIINNT 3L DIT. +28 206
#note The problem with any of the available rack cleaners (2J INDITE, 2K INDIE, and G10 INTI) is that they all play for chump change and give back at least 30. J5 NITID does a nice job cleaning out this crap, but it only scores 8 points - way too much given up on the scoreboard with plays like DITZ and DIXIT available. Thus, I have to take the points. This is best.
>Ben_Withers: CEIOSTY 11H SOCIETY +87 201
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIIINN J10 A.INI +11 217
#note No bingos play. (For the record, there are no 7's in this rack and the only 8 in these letters is INSIGNIA. Not that I'd have ever seen that.). I considered two choices: IXIA and this. IINN? seemed like it would be impossilbe for me to anagram...my brain just overloads with blank racks with this much duplication so cleaning it up was a priority. Also, in possession of the blank, I thought it would be a good idea to open up the bottom half of the board so there'd be a place to bingo if he somehow interfered with row 1. I thought L1 NIDI hurt me more than it helped, which left me with this. The sim says I should take the points with IXIA but it's really style preference - the top 3 choices (IXIA, L1 NIDI, and this) all win within 1/2% and sim within 1 point of each other.
>Ben_Withers: JOY 10B JOY +40 241
>Jim_Burlant: ?EILNPR L10 P.N +10 227
#note FAIL. Nothing plays on row 1, nothing plays in the J column. And the Bane of the Blank Rack, in which you can find the 20 bingos that don't play but can't find the one that does, strikes at a very inopportune moment: PERILING plays at 14G for 68. Against a random rack it wins 62%. However, the small consolation I can take: against his next rack, the only way I can really win this game is if I were to have followed it up with a bingo right out of the bag.
>Ben_Withers: ?EEQRUV 1H QUaVERE. +110 351
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGILR 14H GA.nLIER +66 293
#note Didn't know the C back hook to ACINI, so I couldn't put down the best play. Best play is GRACILE 15G. Play incorrectly scored as 68.
>Ben_Withers: AKW O12 WA.K +45 396
>Jim_Burlant: IOSTTUV B10 .OUST +24 317
#note Best.
>Ben_Withers: AENR A12 NEAR +22 418
>Jim_Burlant: BEGIOTV 4H VOGIE +32 349
>Ben_Withers: EM C14 EM +7 425
>Jim_Burlant: BHIOORT 15E HOBO +36 385
#note Good, but not best. Best is a play I didn't think of, 15E THROB 43.
>Ben_Withers: CDLPS M5 C..PS +10 435
>Jim_Burlant: IRT F12 TIR. +6 391
>Jim_Burlant: (DL) +6 397
#note The critical mistake in this one was my play of FAME, as it allowed him to play at O1 and keep his S for SOCIETY on his next turn. Missing PERILING was obviously not good. But even if I found that, this most likely was not my game to win. This game had really haunted me after it was over - so much so that I replayed the game in Quackle, pretending that I had hit PERILING. If I didn't draw a bingo out of the bag that turn, my winning chances were all in the neighborhood of 9%, which is probably generous; if you've simmed enough games, you know that's one of those situations where your winning chances dwindle to 0 each turn thereafter even when you make the right play. And given that the first two tiles I had fished when I whiffed on PERILING were AG, some informal experimentation revealed that the likelihood of drawing a bingo out of that bag was on the order of 1 in 16 - a lot less than the typical 1 in 8. In a tournament that went like New Orleans, I probably hit that bingo. In this tournament? Fuhgeddaboudit. FAME cost me the game, which kind of tells you how this tournament was going.
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