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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Leesa_Berahovich Leesa Berahovich
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGNSW 8E WAGE +16 16
#note I wondered afterwards if I had rushed this turn and I should have instead played short with WE 8G. WE keeps the potent AEGNS combination together; the disadvantage is that it's too easy for her to overlap and make it difficult for me to bingo. As for why I chose this placement of WAGE: while I have the S, the major problem with the 8G placement is that there are also 6 unseen R's, 3 unseen S's and 4 unseen D's that can back-hook it down the K column - too volatile. In addition to scoring 6 more than WE, this leaves me a nice ENS, and it also gives me a hook for my S down the D column. Quackle agrees with me - this is best.
>Leesa_Berahovich: ACEHINR -ACEHI +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: DENOPSV E8 .OVEN +22 38
#note Had no idea what to do with this and I didn't consider plays that burned the S, which limited my options. The sim says this position is more or less a matter of stylistic preference, as the top 6 plays (of which this is one) all win 62 - 63% and sim within 2-1/2 points of each other at 1000+ 2-ply iterations. Other options include D3 DEVONS, I8 DEV, and I5 VEND. Of all the choices, only VEND I5 would have blocked her next play.
>Leesa_Berahovich: AEFINRR I5 REFRAIN +74 74
#note Best bingo for Leesa.
>Jim_Burlant: BDEIPSU D11 PUB +22 60
#note Too much rack grooming. I saw the 22 points, DEIS leave, and tunnel vision set in; I didn't consider non-rack-grooming plays. When I couldn't find anything unloading the U that reached to 15H, I stopped looking for the better play. Too bad, as BIPEDS, which I didn't see, plays at H10 and scores 48. The sim says PUB is also a very strong choice, but I think that's misleading - DEIS leave or not, this gives up way too much on the scoreboard and, as you'll see in a second, board position. BIPEDS wins 43%, and this play ostensibly wins 42. BIPEDS should have been the play. My own book is out on what I should have done when I played WOVEN, but in my mind this play was the turning point of the game.
>Leesa_Berahovich: AJOS C10 SOJA +45 119
#note What does she do with this if I played BIPEDS on the previous turn? JOE for 20?
>Jim_Burlant: DDDEFIS J4 DEF +30 90
#note Or J10 FED. 30% to win.
>Leesa_Berahovich: EELLNOO J10 NOLO +12 131
#note Now Leesa starts struggling with vowel overloads, which allows me to start clawing my way back in. Post-mortem she told me this was her rack, and now I don't feel so bad. Leesa is in a tough spot, as any of the obvious rack cleaners like LOON or ENOL in the B column and DOOLEE 4J are reckless. I almost certainly would have missed the best play here, too, as it's a word I know but almost never find: LEONE plays at H1 for 21.
>Jim_Burlant: DDHISTT K11 HID +31 121
#note Not thrilled with the DSTT leave, but this rack really doesn't leave me much choice. This is best, but my winning chances haven't increased a whole lot: still not quite 34% to win.
>Leesa_Berahovich: DEEL 5I ..ELED +14 145
>Jim_Burlant: DIOSTTT M2 TOT.D +12 133
#note No really good options available, and it didn't occur to me to burn the S with DITTOS D3 for 27. If you don't burn the S, anything is as good as anything else, though for some strange reason, Quackle thinks TOITED M1 is vastly superior to this. My winning chances have incrementally increased to 37% (DITTOS wins 40) but they're about to plummet.
>Leesa_Berahovich: ?EEELLU B4 UkELELE +64 209
#note Nice find!!!!! She's in the driver's seat now, winning 82%.
>Jim_Burlant: IIIRSTX F5 IXI. +27 160
#note Q says it's either this or another play that didn't occur to me: IRITIS D3, presumably for turnover to go after the other blank. When simmed against an inferred blank, IRITIS drops down a bit. Either way, I'm 14-1/2% to win now against a random rack.
>Leesa_Berahovich: EPR A8 PER +32 241
>Jim_Burlant: IRSSTTY 12I S..TTY +29 189
#note Best, but no matter how you slice it, I'm in big trouble: barely 12% to win. And my winning chances are about to rapidly approach zero.
>Leesa_Berahovich: ?CGIINO G1 COIGnIN. +76 317
#note Another very nice find. But, believe it or not, I caught a break. There was an absolutely sick play available that would have blocked my comeback play: GONIdIC plays at C2 for 84. Regardless, her bingo was the last nail in my coffin.
>Jim_Burlant: IKNOQRS 4A Q.IRK +56 245
#note Best, and it ostensibly wins 3%. What miracle can I conjure up to win this game?
>Leesa_Berahovich: AGWY E1 GAW.Y +42 359
#note Ouch! I held this, as it blocked the bingo I was going to put down. I let it go when I realized that wishful thinking wasn't going to make a valid word come back as unacceptable if I challenged.
>Jim_Burlant: AINOSTU 1G .OUNT +21 266
#note No bingos play, and I wasn't doing any more than moving tiles to bring this game to a close. It's either this or COITUS 1G in the same spot.
>Leesa_Berahovich: AH 3C HA. +30 389
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIMRS N3 MA.EIRAS +76 342
#note At least I get to save face - this is the only bingo.
>Leesa_Berahovich: ENORT O7 TENOR +27 416
>Jim_Burlant: AABCSVZ O1 ZAS +41 383
#note Post-mortem, Jon Shreve, who was sitting at the adjacent board, asked why I didn't play ZAS 14A. Truth be told, I was worn down and not really thinking this one through too hard and didn't even see that choice. In reality, Quackle confirms it wouldn't have made a difference, as I'm loaded with too many counters for the setup play to garner me extra spread. This, 2A VAC, or 14A ZAS do an equally good job preserving spread if Championship Player is to be believed.
>Leesa_Berahovich: IMU N12 .UM +16 432
>Jim_Burlant: ABCV 2A VAC +24 407
>Leesa_Berahovich: I A8 ...I +6 438
>Leesa_Berahovich: (B) +6 444
#note First, congrats to Leesa for an extremely well played game. As for my my own play: WOVEN felt wrong, but nothing felt right on that turn. I'd have had to have known her rack to know that VEND would have stopped her from bingoing. Outside of that, even though the sim thinks it was a strong play, I have to conclude that PUB was the game-changing mistake. Besides giving up 26 scoreboard points to BIPEDS, if I put down BIPEDS, she doesn't get 45 for SOJA. And if I turn 6 tiles instead of 3 on that turn, does she still double-blank me and land 8 of the 12 E's? And if you agree with Quackle that I should have played DITTOS/SWAGER instead of TOTED, the question is whether the extra turnover there would have garnered me the second blank or two more useless tiles. Definitely PUB, and maybe TOTED are the plays I have to look at on my own end. And even TOTED might not have changed the game by that point.
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