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#player1 Erickson_Smith Erickson Smith
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Erickson_Smith: MOT 8G TOM +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: INOORRV 9F VINO +19 19
#note Right idea, wrong execution. Q prefers the 7F placement by roughly 3-1/2 points, presumably to limit back hooks on plays down the J column to an S, where TOM takes both the S and the E.
>Erickson_Smith: ADELNOQ -AD +0 10
>Jim_Burlant: EGHMORR 10H OGRE +16 35
#note No really good options available, and scorewise this is as good as anything else. Couldn't think of 10H ERG. I *hated* floating the E, but as I said, I couldn't think of ERG. The one consolation I had: nothing would have prevented him from bingoing on his next rack.
>Erickson_Smith: ?AEORST L7 cOASTER +70 80
#note K4 OPERATES, OLEASTER score 78.
>Jim_Burlant: BEHMPRT 8K H.PER +30 65
#note Bad - couldn't think of MORPH, which scores 36. So far I've not played well, but when you view his next play, you'll realize this had all the makings of your basic outdrawing: Erickson is continually drawing exactly what he needs exactly when he needs it.
>Erickson_Smith: IVW N6 VI.W +18 98
>Jim_Burlant: BIIMNTU 13K B.UIN +14 79
#note Couldn't think of BURIN, which would have been a better choice. BURIN wins 34%; this wins 31.
>Erickson_Smith: AAFG O11 FA.GA +30 128
>Jim_Burlant: AABIMRT F6 BRA.I +24 103
#note Not only my best scoring option, but it eliminates the B and the duplicated A, scores reasonably well, and most importantly, it opens the northwest and southwest quadrants up so he can't completely kill the board in one or two more turns. Quackle confirms: this is the best play.
>Erickson_Smith: HTY E10 THY +20 148
>Jim_Burlant: AIIMNST 14F INTIMAS +78 181
#note Best bingo - despite my early blundering, I'm in control of the game: 57% to win. I have to assume that vowel placement issues are why ANIMIST 14G (which also scores 78) wins 7% less often than this choice even though it scores identically.
>Erickson_Smith: EIY H12 YE.I +33 181
>Jim_Burlant: ADDLORU D12 AULD +24 205
#note Best, but my winning chances have decreased a bit: down to 55% to win, and his next rack is going to decrease that substantially.
>Erickson_Smith: ?EIKRST C6 KIeSTER +68 249
#note C6 TInKERS scores 72, but it doesn't matter - Erickson is now 70% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: DEGJLOR 8A JE.D +39 244
#note Hated burning my E, but didn't think I should turn down 39 points, and there still are 6 E's unseen. This is a conflicted sim, as Q wants me to play B12 GOLD but says this has higher valuation though it wins 1% less often. Not sure what the rationale is for that - does Quackle really think 8A is going to be there on the next turn if I play GOLD? Anyway, 26-1/2% to win and fading fast.
>Erickson_Smith: IQU 15A QUI. +42 291
>Jim_Burlant: DEGLOOR 6F .LOOD +12 256
#note No clue what to do here - Q likes G11 GOON, B12 GO and B10 ERGO, but I need somewhere to bingo. They may do a better job with the rack than this play, but Erickson certainly isn't going to open up for me. As much as I need to unload the G, opening the board takes first priority. As for why this instead of LOGO G3, the unseen pool makes that too dangerous. Yes, I need to open, but not give him a potential 50 if he's got a W or more if he has an X. Q doesn't like this much, but it's getting pretty bleak - GOON ostensibly wins 13%, this wins roughly 10.
>Erickson_Smith: DF I13 F.D +23 314
>Jim_Burlant: CEEGNNR 5I GEN +14 270
#note Again, I'm trying to open up - Quackle likes B10 ENG, but the only thing that play does is guarantee that I lose by 10 fewer points. I'm hoping upon hope he either makes a mistake or doesn't have the tiles to defend and that I can pull the miracle that lets me back into the game.
>Erickson_Smith: CELW 4G CLEW +21 335
#note Of course.
>Jim_Burlant: ACELNOR L1 CLONE +25 295
#note Q likes 3J OCEAN, but whatever - this one's a moot point.
>Erickson_Smith: AOX 1L .OAX +39 374
>Jim_Burlant: AAEERTZ 3J AZ.TE +36 331
>Erickson_Smith: ENPSU 2I UP +27 401
>Jim_Burlant: AER D4 ERA +12 343
>Jim_Burlant: (ENS) +6 349
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