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#player1 Karl_Higby Karl Higby
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Karl_Higby: GLO 8G LOG +8 8
>Jim_Burlant: EGHINNO 9F NOH +15 15
#note Don't know why I got scored of an S hook on row 5 and why EGIN was so good that I thought it was worth giving up 10 scoreboard points to HOEING (not to mention the E and O back hooks to LOG still being open). HOEING J6 looks good to both clear this rack and take out the E back hook to LOG. Championship player says this wins 2% less often than HOEING. Surprised this doesn't sim worse.
>Karl_Higby: QSU 10H SUQ +38 46
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEGIIN J6 GIE +13 28
#note A click of the "Generate choices" button confirms what I spent several minutes figuring out: there are no 7's in this rack and no 8's play. I hated what this did to the board, but the rack really left me no other choice, or so I thought at the time. Quackle says this is best; I'm wondering if, in possession of the blank, I should have played GIE 10D to open, Quackle's opinion of it notwithstanding. Certainly would have made my next turn a lot easier if I'd played at 10D.
>Karl_Higby: EIOORTU -EIOO +0 46
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABEINP 11I NIB +23 51
#note Again, no bingos play. This is best.
>Karl_Higby: CI 6H CI. +6 52
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAAEPR 12K AA +8 59
#note My thought process at the time was that, sitting on the blank, there was no reason for me to not play aggressively. In retrospect, I was probably getting impatient and didn't want to look at yet another no-go. And, given that he had just dinked off CI, perhaps I should have been more cautious. Apparently, exchanging the 2 A's I dinked off is best here. K11 BAA is also good in Quackle's eyes. Quackle says this is a 3-point dog and wins roughly 1% less often than exchanging. Given his next rack, this was probably a 60-point mistake.
>Karl_Higby: DEEENRT 13G ENTERED +77 129
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEPPRR 12B PRePARE +77 136
#note 12A PREWRAP scores 80 but this or 12A PAPERER are best. 43% to win. And when I saw my next rack, I felt more confident that this game was going my way.
>Karl_Higby: EZ B10 ZE. +34 163
>Jim_Burlant: AGJLOSW K2 JOWLS +37 173
#note Q says I should keep the L and play JOWS, but in reality either play is as good as the other. 44% to win.
>Karl_Higby: CFRT 3I CR.FT +26 189
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIOSY 2K .OEY +35 208
#note In this position I considered 2J JOEY, 2K JIAO, and YOGA C7. While YOGA gets rid of the Y and the G, there are three problems with it. First, it concedes 4 scoreboard points to JIAO and 10 to JOEY. Secondly, if he's sitting on all sorts of clunk, he can easily hit something like HOOK, WOOF, etc. for huge points. Lastly, it gives him a line for an easy 7. JIAO is strong, but I'm still stuck with the Y. JOEY also sets up my S. Quackle agrees with my reasoning, as this play is best. It looks like I've recovered from my early mistakes. The duck says I'm now 54% to win, but my winning chances are about to nosedive.
>Karl_Higby: ADNNORT D6 NONRAT.D +59 248
#note The only bingo for Karl, who's 63% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIILS 8A GAI. +15 223
#note My biggest concern was opening up lines for 8's and simultaneously taking away the threat of something like WHINY 8A. There's something to be said for Q's preferred choice of GID 14F, which guarantees me an open S hook on at least on triple. It's an interesting choice, though it could backfire depending on what's in his rack. GID wins 35%; Q thinks this only wins 27.
>Karl_Higby: ABH 1M BAH +34 282
>Jim_Burlant: DIILOSV 14E VOID +17 240
#note Whatever I played last turn, IOV was NOT the draw I needed. Now I felt I had no choice - I didn't like this, but what else could I do? Q agrees - this is best. 18% to win.
>Karl_Higby: RSTTU 15H STRUT +33 315
#note At least he didn't have a blank bingo starting in S, but this pretty much sealed the game for him.
>Jim_Burlant: EIIILSU -IIU +0 240
#note Apparently I should exchange 6 presumably for extra turnover to get at the blank. Best play wins 3.6%, this wins 3.4. If he has an effective block for the northwest quadrant, that number will reduce to 0.
>Karl_Higby: EMOY 6B MO.EY +24 339
#note And he's done it. I'm toast.
>Jim_Burlant: AEIIKLS B2 KELI. +22 262
#note Not sure why I played the E instead of both my I's, but it's garbage time - the only question is how points I lose by? Everything wins 1%.
>Karl_Higby: DENOU 4B .OUDEN +14 353
>Jim_Burlant: AAAIISW E10 WA. +25 287
#note No idea what to do, just moving tiles to end the game.
>Karl_Higby: EV F2 VE. +14 367
>Jim_Burlant: AAIILMS C1 LIM. +26 313
>Karl_Higby: ?EFITUX E6 .X +18 385
>Jim_Burlant: AAIS C12 .AIA +14 327
>Karl_Higby: ?EFITU 15A lE.F +30 415
>Jim_Burlant: S 13B S.. +19 346
>Jim_Burlant: (ITU) +6 352
#note While it's very fair to say my racks completely collapsed after his NONRAT(E)D bingo, the question I have to ask myself about this game is whether the same thing would have happened if I hadn't misplayed my first and 4th turns?
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