| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jason_Ubeika Jason Ubeika
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEHRRW 8C WHiRRED +84 84
#note Best placement - 8D sims slightly lower due to vowel placement.
>Jason_Ubeika: AJL F6 JA.L +27 27
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGOTT 9H TOGATED +67 151
#note Initially was going to play GAROTTED, as I initially didn't recognize the 7 in this. Once he put down JARL, it left me no choice; this is the only bingo that plays. Jason held this, but let it go.
>Jason_Ubeika: AEIILST 7H LAITIES +67 94
#note The other option for Jason is N8 IDEALIST, which scores 72.
>Jim_Burlant: CMNOQRS J6 Q. +31 182
#note Gave serious consideration to MOC 8M to try and draw an I for a Q bomb at 6J, but my gut said the spot wasn't going to stay open if I didn't take it now. Quackle agrees: despite not clearing more tiles out of this consonant overloaded rack, this is best. Also worth consideration was a play I didn't see, K7 (T)R(A)NQ. 87% to win.
>Jason_Ubeika: AEHLTY C8 .EALTHY +34 128
>Jim_Burlant: CKMNORS 8M MOC +30 212
#note Despite the consonant overload, lots of strong options available. Tunnel-vision from the previous turn crept in here and I couldn't break myself out of putting down what I saw on the last turn. This is a strong choice, but I missed a much better play: SMOCKS N2 scores 48. SMOCKS wins the sim and is 88.5% to win; this sims 7 points down and wins 86.
>Jason_Ubeika: AZ B10 ZA +64 192
>Jim_Burlant: IKNPRSX A11 PRINK +41 253
#note I may have whiffed on my last play, but this one hit the mark: this is best, and I'm still 80% to win. Next best option is PYX 14B, which scores 30.
>Jason_Ubeika: EFLRU K7 .E.RFUL +20 212
>Jim_Burlant: EIOSVXY 12C .IVY +20 273
#note Weak. Couldn't think of XYLOSE, which plays at 13I. This actually sims as the bronze medalist, but that's more a reflection of how weak the options otherwise are if you don't find XYLOSE than the strength of this play. XYLOSE wins 88%; this wins 84 and sims at a deficit of 8-1/2 points.
>Jason_Ubeika: EOTV G3 VETO +20 232
>Jim_Burlant: DDEEOSX 4D DES.X +42 315
#note Less is more in this position. Yes, I saw DESEXED for 48, and I didn't like it. I'm trying to constrict the board and make it difficult for him to bingo. DESEXED scores more, but, even if he can't bingo on row 3, DESEXED still gives back way too many 35 or 40-point plays. This choice pretty much limits him to extending the V. Q takes a while to sort it out, but the duck agrees with me - this is best, winning 88.4%. DESEXED is a close second in the sim. If I'm the one trailing by a bingo I put down DESEXED. Leading by a bingo, it's a risky play that could easily backfire and give him the opening he needs to get back in this game.
>Jason_Ubeika: BIM L12 MIB +24 256
>Jim_Burlant: DEEOOUU 3G .ODOU +20 335
#note If you don't find this play, all the rest of your options are exchanges. This is best, winning 78%.
>Jason_Ubeika: ?ACEGIN 15I CEAsING +84 340
#note INCAGEs also plays at 15F and scores identically. Given my subsequent racks, INCAGES might have resulted in a different outcome. You'll see in a minute why INCAGEs is the marginally better choice. Jason is just shy of 37% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIORU J9 .OER +21 356
#note Despite my having made the best possible play on 6 of 8 prior turns, and despite Jason's bingo putting him at 37% winning chances, this draw was SO bad that best play here, if Quackle is to be believed, barely has me winning 31%. Quackle wants me to play E11 UVEA to balance the rack. I passed on it. I saw 4 N's in the pool and wanted to keep the U because I had a plan in store for it. This scores 21 and gives me 3 cracks at an N. Q says UVEA wins 31.8% and that this wins 27.
>Jason_Ubeika: BIN 2H BIN +26 366
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRUW 15G UN....... +33 389
#note Jackpot! When I saw the U in my rack after he put down CEASING, a look at the pool convinced me that I had a very good chance to extend it to UNCEASING. And, for one of a handful of times on day one, I got the draw I needed when I needed it. This wins 51% and is my best option. Other plays, like L1 WINE/WANE, win 46.
>Jason_Ubeika: AAEENOS - +0 366
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIPRW 4K PEW +20 409
#note I played this because I wanted to elminate the possibility of something like FANG/FINO/etc. at L1. Looking at the sim results, I really don't like any of Quackle's suggested plays - M11 APE and things like E10 WIVE/WAVE/WAVIER, etc. - because they don't defend against any of his major threats. Quackle claims this wins 3% less often than its preferred choices and it docks me 3 equity points. Whatever - I'd make this play again.
>Jason_Ubeika: AN 3C NA +7 373
>Jim_Burlant: AEFIOOR 5B ROOF +28 437
#note And now that I have both the O's, I don't have to worry about defending row 1. Best is either this or 2B OORIE.
>Jason_Ubeika: EINSSTU 10E US +18 391
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGI N11 AGAI. +12 449
#note Mis-tracked this, and I had him sitting on INRST, not EINST. Whoops. Best play for me is the counter-intuitive B14 AI 22. This coughs up 4 points of spread.
>Jason_Ubeika: EINST 5K STEIN +27 418
>Jason_Ubeika: (E) +2 420
#note Very happy with how I played this one - while a fortuitous late draw certainly helped, I stayed calm when the post-DESEX draws were turning really bad, came up with a plan, and got it right when it counted. No missed bingos, total equity loss for this one was in the range of 30 points. I'll take that any day of the week.
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