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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: AFHIMS 8G FAMISH +36 36
#note Play incorrectly scored as 34.
>Jim_Burlant: ACDDEOT K5 COA.TED +40 40
#note No 7's or 8's in this rack; this is best. 41% to win. Next best play wins 3-1/2% less often and sims 7 points down.
>Chris_Cree: IIKP J10 PIKI +29 65
>Jim_Burlant: AADENTZ 6J Z.A +32 72
#note Obviously a play with the Z on row 6 is in order, but Quackle slightly disagrees with this choice. The sim prefers 6I AZO. Championship player says I should string it wide open with AZOTED for 40. In reality, the difference between the plays comes down to stylistic preference: Championship Player says AZOTED wins 50.5%, this wins 50.25 and concedes 0.8 equity.
>Chris_Cree: UX I13 XU +34 99
>Jim_Burlant: ADELNTU 9B LUNATED +69 141
#note The other bingo is FLAUNTED G8, which scores 64 and slots the triple. This scores 69 and does not. Thus, this is best - 62% to win, but not for long.
>Chris_Cree: ?CEFORW D7 FE.CeROW +82 181
#note Nice find!!! FENCEROW is the only bingo in this set of letters, and Chris is 62% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: EIINQST C6 QI +18 159
#note Turns out that drawing the Q was a good thing. Chris told me post-mortem that he had drawn ADEELNP out of the bag, and that this blocked PANELLED down the B column. This is best - for comparison's sake, burning the S with 15B QIS scores 12 more but wins 3-1/4% less often.
>Chris_Cree: ADEELNP 14B PA.ED +30 211
#note Chris's best play with this rack is C11 PEDAL. This was incorrectly scored as 28.
>Jim_Burlant: EINSSTV E1 INVESTS +76 235
#note The only bingo and best play. 51% to win.
>Chris_Cree: EILLMN 1D M.LLINE +36 247
>Jim_Burlant: AAGIOSY 15A GAYS +53 288
#note Was thrilled to see GI in my rack, as I had been eyeing an ING extension to FAMISH ever since Chris put it down. However, given this board, there's absolutely no way I could justify holding onto the G because this play scores just as much. For the lower division players reading this, a good rule of thumb as to whether to burn your only S in a situation like this is to value the S at 8 points; in other words, if you're scoring well and using the S scores you 8 more points than the best available play that doesn't use it, then it's good to use it. And the "case" S (i.e., the last one) may be worth a lot more than that depending on whether there are any juicy S hooks available on the board. Given that GAY scores 30 and GAYS scores 53, it's correct for me to play the S. This is best, and my winning chances have increased to 56%...but not for long.
>Chris_Cree: BEEIJNT 13C J.B +54 301
#note This was Chris's actual rack. This is obviously his best play, and it wins 48%. Holding onto the B and playing JO for 44 wins 36%.
>Jim_Burlant: ABEIIOW 3B WAI.E +22 310
#note With GGINNN? unseen I wanted to maximize turnover, and with 5 E's unseen I wasn't worried about holding my E. Q agrees with me: this is best. Other options include 2B BEANO and 15F OBI.
>Chris_Cree: ?EEINRT 2H TERrINE +74 375
#note And when it's not your day, it really isn't your day. He landed R? on his two-tile fish. Chris and the sim are in disagreement here. The sim says his best bingo is ETERNIzE at 4C; he was more worried about taking out 2J. Regardless, he's 85% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ABEINOO 1L BOON +38 348
#note Again, so close, yet so far. For the second time I have 2/3 of the GIN I need to hit (FAMISH)ING, and once again my best play requires me to burn the N. Given the pool and its 4 unseen O's, both my O's need to go. While BONE and BANI both score 38, this is best. 10% to win. Already possessing the case I, the only way I can see myself winning this game is if I get a G and the case N for FAMISHING.
>Chris_Cree: OV B1 VO. +18 393
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIORT 13H O..DATE +30 378
#note This is the type of situation that Quackle tends to misplay. Predictably, Quackle wants me to fish with TO 9K for 7. Assuming he responds to that with something at M9, the only way I see Quackle's play working is if I draw the T - this would give me IT(E)RATED at 4C. Otherwise, it's safe to assume the bingo is not going to play, as Chris is certain to play something to block the M column. And if that happens, it's double jeopardy, as FAMISHING won't be a possibility, either. As far as I'm concerned, my first priority is staying in the game. And I need to maximize tile turnover while doing so because I have 1 of the 3 tiles I need for FAMISHING and need as many cracks at the bag as I can get hopefully get the GN I need. The drawback to OXIDATE is that it does potentially give him a place to play HONE for 35, but this game's practically a lost cause already if he's got any of HN in his rack, so I don't see how this is as bad as Quackle says it is. Despite what Quackle says, I'd make this play again. Play incorrectly scored as 32.
>Chris_Cree: GLNORUU G3 RUG +18 411
#note This was Chris's actual rack, and he said that it hadn't even occurred to him to look for a bingo with duplicated U's in his rack. LONGU(E)UR plays for 72 at N8 and he missed it. I didn't know his whole rack at the time, but he initially put down RUNG and pulled it up before putting this down. When I saw the N, I knew I was dead - without the N, I didn't see how I was going to be able to make up the 33-point differential without being able to play FAMISHING for 54 or even HONE H12 for 35.
>Jim_Burlant: EEGIRRY B7 RE.Y +22 400
#note No idea what to do. Since I'm sitting on the E's, he can't hurt me at H12. Problem with the rack-cleaning GREYER is the unseen O's and the easy run it gives him at the O column. If Championship Player is to be believed, knowing that the N is in his rack, YA L12 and 14L YIRR are best, ostensibly winning 8.33%, but that's a smokescreen. In reality, YIRR saves a little bit of spread but I can't win this no matter what.
>Chris_Cree: HLNOOTU 14L HON +23 434
#note Chris was very low on time and missed NOH.
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIRR 5K .AGER +10 410
#note I thought I'd be clever and block his out play of CLOUT. Quackle says I should simply play GEAR 15J, and against Quackle that's the best choice. Doing this saved me a point of spread, not that it wound up mattering.
>Chris_Cree: LOTU O5 .OUT +12 446
#note TOLUID 11F goes out for 7.
>Jim_Burlant: IR 11C R.I +4 414
#note 10J PERI scores 6.
>Jim_Burlant: (L) +2 416
#note Final score recorded as 442 - 418. Nothing I could do about this; I just did not get the tiles I needed to be able to win the game.
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