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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
>Jim_Burlant: EHLLMPS 8G HELM +18 18
#note This choice doesn't do well statically but it's a different story in the sim, where it doesn't take long to jump near the top. I saw plays like HELPS, HELMS, etc. and as regular readers of my games will know, I'm not a big fan of burning the S on an open for only 28 points, especially if it puts the S on the star. As for what the sim says, the top 4 plays (8G HELP, this choice, 8G HELM, and 8G SHLEP) all win within 0.4% and sim within 1 point of each other.
>Darrell_Day: BOY 7F BOY +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: CILPSTY 6H PLY +24 42
#note Best. 6G PLY wins 2% less often and sims nearly 4 points down.
>Darrell_Day: AIR 9I AIR +11 31
>Jim_Burlant: CEIJRST F5 JI. +14 56
#note Took a while on this turn as I considered three plays: 10F JETS, exchange J, and this. Was hard to turn down 30, but I didn't like giving up both the S and T with the back-hooks to AIR available, which is why I rejected JETS. As for exchange J - I was very tempted to do it, but with 14 points available for JIB and a good chance I'd get an A or an I on the 2-tile pick, I just couldn't justify it in my own mind as exchanging gave up a hair too much on the scoreboard for not enough improvement in the rack. As for how this sims: this is best, with exchange J winning 1% less often and 2.2 points down. JETS wins 3.5% less often and sims nearly 7 points behind this play.
>Darrell_Day: LOTV 10F VOLT +18 49
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEERST L3 RESpECT +76 132
#note Luckbox! Any number of solid choices here - L4 REjECTS, REsECTS, REfECTS, L3 TEnRECS and this all score 76. Best bingos are any of the L4 selections and this wins roughly 0.5% less often and sims 0.9 points down at 1050 2-ply iterations, and I think the sim is right. Besides floating a completely unobstructed R in row 3 (Quackle indicates that pponents bingo twice as often against this choice instead of one of the L4 bingos), this could have burned me if Darrell had a 5 or 6-letter H-word ready to go at M9 - something I failed to consider when I put this down. Fortunately, I didn't get burned.
>Darrell_Day: ?DDEEGO 3G DOGEa.ED +78 127
#note Nice find! This also happens to be the only playable bingo for Darrell, who's winning 37%. So far, this was pretty typical of a game between Darrell and me. But both of us were about to bog down.
>Jim_Burlant: OOORSTU N2 O.OUR +16 148
#note Considered two choices (8L COOT and this) and took a couple of minutes to decide. What swayed me? I was concerned that, if I played COOT, not only would I still be stuck with the U, but he could unload any sort of clunk at H1 for huge points (e.g.: AV(O)W, GO(O)F, etc.) and if I didn't draw into a bingo, I might not have a comeback available if I couldn't extend the L at H10. Championship Player says DUO G3 is best - not sure I agree - and says this is almost a 2-1/2 poitnt dog. CP says DUO wins 58.9% and that this wins 57.96. Both the sim and Championship Player think COOT is marginally better than this. I'd make this play again.
>Darrell_Day: AV H1 AV. +18 145
#note One of those breaks that tells you that this was a good tournament for me: I thought for sure he was about to play AVOW for 42. I was quite relieved to see he hadn't drawn one of the W's.
>Jim_Burlant: AEKORST 8L .ORK +30 178
#note An annoying rack - this looks like it should have something, but there are no 7's, and the only 8's (OVERTASK, KERATOSE, and SEATWORK) don't play. I initially saw COKE leaving ARST but was more enthused about the AEST leave of this choice. Q wants me to forego the points and groom the rack with J1 OKE, which I thought gave up a hair too much on the scoreboard, AERST leave or not. Its runner up is COKE leaving ARST, and this choice is the bronze medalist. OKE wins 72.45%, COKE wins 71.4, and this wins 70.8 and sims 2.1 points behind OKE.
>Darrell_Day: GP 7K P.G +13 158
>Jim_Burlant: AAEFIST 2J FA +27 205
#note The only 8's with this rack are FANTASIE and FASCIATE, and they don't play. As for this position, there are only two plays worth consideration: FAVA 2F and this choice. This is best.
>Darrell_Day: FI O1 IF +20 178
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIQST 6E Q. +11 216
#note His play of IF only scored 20, but it hurt quite a lot; I was going to play QI O1 for 35. As for this, not much else to do. Next best option (exch. Q) wins 4% less often and sims 9 points down.
>Darrell_Day: AO F9 A.O +6 184
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIIST 5J AI. +11 227
#note If there was a play I got wrong this game, this was it. He's obviously been close to something for 4 turns, and he almost certainly has an S. I was tempted to defend with something like OI G10 but didn't like killing the S hook because I had an S. And, not seeing much else, I decided to take the extra points (11 for this play vs 4 for OI) and hope I could either draw into an 8 either on row 1 or down the N/O columns, or bingo through what he put down. This felt wrong when I put it down, but I couldn't figure out what was right. Quackle says this is a very strong choice against a random rack, and against an inferred AEINST it doesn't fare too badly, winning roughly 1-1/4% less often at a deficit of roughly 2 points. The same play wins the sim both against a random rack and an inferred AEINST, and it's a really smart play that didn't occur to me: LATI I8, which would have forced him to open up any number of lines for me to play through even if he did bingo somewhere. I think that AI(S) was a bigger mistake than Quackle does. And whether you agree with my assessment or if you think I'm being unnecessarily hard on myself, one thing is clear: this was one of the major inflection points of this game.
>Darrell_Day: AENRSTU 12F SAUNTER +73 257
>Jim_Burlant: DEINSTW N8 .EWINDS +38 265
#note Q wants me to simultaneously fish and open an S hook with K11 DEW or WED for 14. And, while the unseen pool contains lots of AEIN, he's sure to muck up as much of the southeast quadrant as possible. In other words, I don't think the bingo will be as likely to play as Quackle does. Even if my fish does lead to a row 14 bingo, it would probably be an airball that would give him something back on row 15. Thus, after considering plays like WED/DEW, I figured I should turn 6, score 38, and roll the dice. Quackle says a fish is the only thing worth doing; K11 WED wins 52%. Quackle absolutely hates this play, saying it wins 41% and sims 11 points down. Regardless of Quackle's opinion, I'd make this play again. And if you want to amuse yourself, take a very hard look at this pool, and take a good look at my next rack, and take a look at the pool on this turn again.
>Darrell_Day: LX K11 L.X +20 277
>Jim_Burlant: BDHIMNT O14 HM +26 291
#note From that pool, I find it absolutely astounding that I didn't draw a single A or E, and that I managed to find 4 of the 13 remaining singletons - talk about the laws of probability being turned upside down! Anyway, I don't remember the exact order of the draw, but I do recall that the I was the 4th or 5th tile out of the bag...so the fish Quackle wanted me to make would have yielded garbage and I'd probably have nowhere to score. Sure makes me glad I took the 38. Anyway, as to this position: Q prefers 11E BOD for 16 instead of this - why??? Given that LEX blocked row 14 bingos, this doesn't shut the board down on myself, so why turn down the points? Is leave that critical on this utterly dead board? Q says BOD wins 47.4% and that this wins 46.5 and is a 1.5-point dog. I'd make this play again. Play incorrectly scored as 25.
>Darrell_Day: GU L12 .UG +13 290
>Jim_Burlant: BDIINRT 1K BID +11 302
#note Took a while to find this, but I did. It's best - 54.5% to win. 11E BOD sims 1 point down and wins 1/2% less often.
>Darrell_Day: IO M14 OI +10 300
>Jim_Burlant: AAINRTW H1 ...W +14 316
#note Too bad I didn't have this rack one turn ago - ANTIWAR would have been a game clincher for sure. Q wants me to play L12 RUGA for 9, probably because it expects me to fish an E that will potentially give me AEINTRW on the next turn. While the 7's won't play, ANTIWEAR might still be available on row 1 if he doesn't take the spot. At the time, I didn't look as closely at the pool as I should have. I thought that maximizing score (this is my highest scoring option) would put that much more pressure on him. Also, I didn't want to stake everything on the bingo that might not have come - what if the laws of probability turned upside down? Q says RUGA wins 59% and this wins not quite 56.
>Darrell_Day: CEIT H10 .E.TIC +24 324
>Darrell_Day: CEIT -- -24 300
#note Darrell told me post-mortem that he knew this was phony when he put it down, but he felt he had to take the chance on it, since his next best option was 8 or 9 points with a terrible leave. I held for maybe 5 seconds, then challenged.
>Jim_Burlant: AAINRTU 15J UNA. +11 327
#note Q gives slight preference to UNAU H12. Didn't occur to me that it was just as strong defensively and that it scored one more point. This sims with higher valuation but wins 1% less often. Regardless, 72% to win.
>Darrell_Day: CEIT 13G ET +8 308
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRTZ 1G Z. +11 338
#note Given the pool, I saw a possible ESTANCIA on row 1 and thought defending that was my first priority, which is why I passed on AZO 11D and ZA 9E. With all bingos blocked, he'd have to break up his rack and probably open by playing something on row 9. Championship Player, when simmed against an inferred rack of ACEINST, indicates this is 4th best. If he's got ACEINST I'm probably screwed no matter what, and what REV 2F does is force him to make the small setup of UTE or UTA H12 (if he figures that out), at which point I play the Z on row 11 for 23 and minimize spread.
>Darrell_Day: CIN 9E N. +2 310
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRST D8 NASTIER +69 407
#note And when you have the kind of tournament I was having, you luckbox the S on your one-tile fish. If you know Darrell, you know his reaction when this came down.
>Darrell_Day: ACEEEIT 14B CE.IA +18 328
>Jim_Burlant: N 13C N. +8 415
>Jim_Burlant: (EET) +6 421
#note Final score recorded as 420 - 328.
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