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#player1 Oliver Oliver
#player2 Geoff Geoff
>Oliver: GUV 8G VUG +14 14
>Geoff: EEHIORV J8 HOVER +30 30
#note Not sure why I didn't just play HOVE here.
>Oliver: ?BDENRT 11D BaNTER.D +90 104
>Geoff: EIIIOPS -IIO +0 30
#note POI 12C 19 is worth playing. Briefly thought about TIPI G11 9 but didn't like it.
>Oliver: ACMO 12C COMA +29 133
>Geoff: EIIPSTY 13D YIP +25 55
>Oliver: EO 14D OE +16 149
>Geoff: EIKNOST 10F KI +38 93
#note Maybe KIN for 3 extra points and avoiding a good H10-15 comeback. The static leave difference is STONE by 7 over TOES, so the advantage must be positional. Didn't think it was that big.
>Oliver: ADERT H10 R.DATE +34 183
>Geoff: EEFNOST 12J .EF +15 108
#note FOES 15A 35 - I was too fishy here, though the board is getting bingo-friendly.
>Oliver: ?ACILNP K3 INCLAsP +85 268
>Geoff: AELNOST 3G ELAT.ONS +70 178
#note Bo-ring. Win percentage now up to 3.7%, though!
>Oliver: AJLRU 4C JURAL +26 294
>Geoff: AEEGIQS H1 GE. +12 190
#note The duck prefers GAES or GEES 15H. I agree what I did was too cute and too conservative.
>Oliver: EEINOUY 2H .N +4 298
>Geoff: AEIMQSU E2 MA.QUISE +88 278
#note Only bingo.
>Oliver: EEILNRS M6 LIERNES +66 364
>Geoff: AGIORTU 8A GOUT. +21 299
#note AUTOS maybe - I'm not likely to hit an -ING bingo with only one N left. Q agrees with GOUTS, though. Winning chances now 1.7%.
>Oliver: HIW 2B WHI. +24 388
>Geoff: AEIORSX 1C OX +39 338
#note Much better now, about 13% to win says the duck.
>Oliver: BIO 5A BIO +14 402
>Geoff: AAEIRST 10L A.I +5 343
#note Champ player agrees with ANI; sim likes ANA same place a little better. Would have to look at the pool very closely to figure out why, but we're talking about 32.8% vs 31.8% estimated win pct.
>Oliver: ADEINTY 6B DE +24 426
#note Quackle says EYE 8M is the only play that wins 100%. Second-best (L)I(L)Y K6 (97.8%) is a sweet play, though wouldn't have blocked TORSADE. DE is around 95%.
>Geoff: ADEORST O7 TORSADE +84 427
#note I walked through every possible scenario for four cases: either playing ROASTED, playing TORSADE, fishing an A, or fishing an O. It's striking how wrong the sim figures are when you go through it manually. Quackle loves the fishing plays, but in reality there's always a winning block or countermove for you no matter what tile is in the bag (though not all of them are that easy to see, and you were low on time, so that's another factor). With either ROASTED or TORSADE, I win if the I is in the bag (AI/QI is just enough no matter what you do.) It's real interesting with W in the bag, which was what actually happened - I thought that after ROASTED, ZOA won by 1 before, but actually it loses by 1. ZIN(C)Y for 19 gets you a tie. With an A in the bag, you can play WI(N)Y 4I 38 and outrun me. Damn, Scrabble is hard - if I'd used 11 of my 12 minutes left on the clock, I'm not sure I could have figured this out. From the duck's point of view there's little difference between the bingos. TORSADE was a mistake, but for a different reason: it made your job too easy. FIZ and WIZ were much easier to spot when you're low on time than WANY or WINY or ZINCY would have been.
>Oliver: AFINTYZ N13 FIZ +35 461
>Geoff: W 13H .W +9 436
>Geoff: (ANTY) +14 450
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