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#player1 Melissa_Routzahn Melissa Routzahn
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Melissa_Routzahn: AE 8H AE +4 4
>Jim_Burlant: EKLOUVY 7H KYE +29 29
#note Q doesn't like this a whole lot, preferring 7I YUK - both against a random rack and a 5-letter stem like AEGLN and AELNT. Truth be told, I didn't like burning my E to make this play, but none of the options appealed to me. I felt that if she had fished to a bingo, I'd be best served by maximizing score, as her bingo would almost certainly open up plenty of lanes through which I could hopefully unload the rest of this garbage. And if she didn't have an S (see previous comment about ANGEL/AELNT stems) anything she put down wouldn't score more than low 60's, so my comeback would still leave me within 15 or 20 pts. Then again, given how Melissa chortled when she saw her next rack, I should have realized something was up.
>Melissa_Routzahn: EINOSSS K5 SESSION +89 93
#note Ouch! Other options are OSSEINS and ESSOINS. Despite the vowel placement issues at 10J, this is Melissa's best bingo, as the other options place the E or O at 8K, which is even worse. She's winning 65%.
>Jim_Burlant: HLLOUVW J10 HOWL +33 62
#note Yikes! That was just about as worst-case as it could get, eh? And I had certainly hoped to draw something higher probability than HLW on my 3-tile pick! As for this choice - HULLO turns one more tile and unloads the U. But, besides still saddling me with VW, HULLO is way too volatile with its A, O, and S back hooks (even if the S's are almost all gone already). The last thing I need is to give her a free run at row 15 given my deficit. Thus, this choice, which Quackle agrees is best, winning 22%.
>Melissa_Routzahn: AFHT 8K .HAFT +45 138
>Jim_Burlant: LLORUVY 6J Y.LL +28 90
#note Not bad, but the simple LYE 6I is best in Quackle's eyes, winnning 19%. Q also likes M7 VALOUR to clear this crap out...I don't. I was feeling the pressure to turn the extra tile given how ugly the rack was, which is why I probably didn't see LYE. Anyway, not quite 17% to win.
>Melissa_Routzahn: IJL M3 JIL. +22 160
>Jim_Burlant: MNORRUV L11 OVUM +21 111
#note Best. Not thrilled about keeping duplicated R's with 4 still unseen, but that UV combo has got to go. Crossing my fingers that I don't draw another R.
>Melissa_Routzahn: CDE 4L D.CE +16 176
>Jim_Burlant: AGNORRR O1 ROG.R +18 129
#note Of course, having had no viable choice but to keep duplicated R's on my previous turn, the first tile out of the bag was the third R. Thankfully she threw me a lifeline, as I was facing an almost certain exchange if she hadn't floated the E. This is best, and things have marginally improved: now 20% to win.
>Melissa_Routzahn: DET M13 TED +16 192
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENRRX 15M .EX +33 162
#note I didn't auto-pilot this, and I gave serious consideration to N8 FAX. While ENRR? is preferable leave-wise, I didn't like (a) trading 4 scoreboard points and (b) the possibility of opening up all sorts of 35 or 40-point plays at O10. To me, the only way she can really hurt me with this choice is if she has MO in her rack. Quackle says I should just play my rack, giving the slightest of preferences (0.25% winning chances and 0.4 equity at 1000 2-ply iterations) to N8 FAX.
>Melissa_Routzahn: ENW 9G NEW +31 223
>Jim_Burlant: ?AGNORR F8 GARRONs +66 228
#note FAIL. I'll admit I was blind to row 5, so I didn't see Quackle's choices of GRANtOR(S) or GROANeR(S). I'll defend the decision to take out the F column and its easy A front hook. But that doesn't excuse my inability to see nothing besides GARRONS. GROANER F6 scores 70 and should have been the play IMO. Quackle thinks I should play on row 5 for 2 more points and leave the F column alone. Your mileage may vary.
>Melissa_Routzahn: MO 14L ..MO +33 256
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEFIR N8 .IFE +18 246
#note This is where I noticed row 5 and saw possible bingos there. Despite the scoreboard points given up to 8A DEFRAG (which I didn't see), this is actually just as strong of a play as DEFRAG - both win just shy of 40% and the sim toggles back and forth between the two.
>Melissa_Routzahn: ABNU 11D BU.AN +14 270
>Jim_Burlant: AABDENR N1 AB +18 264
#note Being as close to a bingo as I was, I liked my chances of a short play leading to a bingo - either on row 5, or an 8 down the A - E columns if she played something at 8A. Q likes 12D ANODE, which wins 42%. It's certainly a strong play, but given the unseen IIIIII, it could easily leave me with 3 I's on my next rack. 12A BADE scores 28 and I considered it, but I didn't see a reason to open up the A column. The sim says ANODE wins 1% more often and that this is a 1-point dog. I'd make this play again.
>Melissa_Routzahn: EINOQTU 13C QUI.TE +32 302
#note Good thing I didn't play BADE - QU(A)NT B10 would have quickly put this game out of reach.
>Jim_Burlant: ADENPRT 5E PEDANT. +26 290
#note Q says this was the right idea with the wrong execution. I felt that, if I had to turn the entire rack, the R was the better starting point than the N, which is why I chose these letters over Quackle's preferred choice of PETARDS. Sadly, I couldn't think of PENTADS. Quackle says PENTADS wins 28% to this play's 26.8, and it says this choice is a 2-1/2 point dog to PENTADS. In this game, it was probably a 20-point dog given her next rack.
>Melissa_Routzahn: AERZ 4F RAZE +51 353
#note Pkay incorrectly scored as 50.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DIIORV 3A DIVIsOR +80 370
#note Hmmm. I saw the size of my deficit and felt that I had no choice but to bingo. Q disagrees, indicating that 6A VIROID is the undisputed winner. It says that, between the bingos, this is better than 6A VIROIDS and wins 3% more often. I'm guessing that's because VIROIDS gives her an easy shot at the A column while leaving me nowhere to come back, where this one opens up two lines to score so I will have a comeback play. Whatever, I'm holding steady at 42% to win.
>Melissa_Routzahn: CGIIN A3 .ICING +33 386
>Jim_Burlant: AEOPSTU 2D SEPTA +33 403
#note SAPOTE 2D scores 34 and saves 3 points of spread, but it's a moot point. Any number of plays factored into this game. What if I find GROANER F6 instead of GARRONS? Or, what if I play PENTADS instead of PEDANTS, how much does she score with the Z? And will I even get a bingo down at any point thereafter if her Z play doesn't give me a place for it? Or if I play VIROIDS for 81 on the previous turn, she replies with VICING A6 and I bingo out with APTEROUS. Whatever the answer, one thing was/is certain: despite the close spread, this wasn't end-game failure. Too many coulda/woulda/shoulda moments in this game where I was in the neighborhood, but being ever so slightly imperfect was enough to lose the game.
>Melissa_Routzahn: AIT 14B AIT +19 405
>Melissa_Routzahn: (OU) +4 409
#note Final score recorded as 408 - 403.
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