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#player1 Joey_Mallick Joey Mallick
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Joey_Mallick: CEERRTT 8G RET +6 6
>Jim_Burlant: AABEEIQ -AABEIQ +0 0
#note This was not an auto-pilot choice. I considered several plays: 7G ABA, assorted rack dumps (I5 ABATE, G4 BARE, etc.) and QAT I6. What it came down to was that everything but QAT had the same problem: nothing scored (ABA is my highest scoring option at 17 points), the non-ABA rack dumps opened way too much up, and assuming he hit, I'd probably be stuck having to unload the Q for chump change on turn 2 and it wasn't a stretch to imagine myself being down 100 points barely 3 turns in. While QA(T) elminates the possibility of 8's from H1 and does make it somewhat harder for Joey to hit the J column, it still doesn't defend the F column if we assume he's sitting on another T. And if Joey hits after I play QAT, the ABEEI leave has me way too dependent on a very favorable draw; in short, QAT strikes me as being too optimistic. Later that day, I asked Lou Cornelus, Rod McNeil, and Darrell Day what they'd do in this position before I told them my move. Lou and Rod both said they'd keep an E and throw everything else back into the bag. Darrell plays the same type of board control game David Gibson is known for and doesn't mind slogging through awkward racks. He preferred QAT. Whether run against a random rack or against Joey's CERT, the sim says it's all a matter of style preference, as pretty much any of the 4 or 5 best choices (ABA, QAT, and varoius exchanges) sim within 1/4% winning chances of each other. Me? I'd do this again. Your mileage may vary.
>Joey_Mallick: ACDEIRT I6 TE.RADIC +66 72
>Jim_Burlant: AEELNOO 13I .OOEE +14 14
#note I puzzled over this for a couple of minutes and, not seeing ODEON 11H, I finally shrugged my shoulders and told myself, as my mother might say, to either s#$t or get off the pot and do something and move on. Turns out that this choice, 11H ODEON, 11I DOOLEE, 11E LOOED, J4 ANOLE are interchangeable plays in Quackle's eyes; anything is as good as anything else. 19% to win.
>Joey_Mallick: AEIIMOR H1 MOIRAI +29 101
>Jim_Burlant: AIKLNTW 12L WALK +44 58
#note Call it a hunch, I didn't think that WANTLIKE* would fly against Joey :-). Joking aside, this is a bit of an annoying rack in that it looks like it should have an 8, but it doesn't. This is definitely best, and my winning chances have inched forward: I'm now 24% to win. WANK scores identically and the board position is indistinguishable from this choice, but the ILT leave of WANK is decidedly weaker than the INT leave of WALK. That's why this choice wins nearly 3% more often and is nearly 5 points better than WANK in the 2-ply sim.
>Joey_Mallick: EEIIQRT O12 .EIR +24 125
>Jim_Burlant: AEGILNT 1H .ETALING +86 144
#note Bingos all over the board: LEGATION/GELATION 2B, TANGLIER 4A/15H...but this is the star play. It's best, and I'm back in the game: 52-1/2% to win in a short sim of roughly 250 2-ply iterations.
>Joey_Mallick: AEIOQTT G3 QAT +47 172
#note JB: Another one of those telltale signs you're having a rough tournament. You toss the Q because you don't have a good play available; your opponent lands it when it scores huge. Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEOSSU F6 OUtSEES +63 207
#note This position illustrates the difference between a real expert like Dave Wiegand, who knows all the words and will almost always see every possibility, and a wannabe like myself. Someone like Wiegand will be able to choose from everything k; with the amount of duplication in this rack, this position was much less about my making a good choice than being a matter of what I could find. In this position, I only found 2 choices: NEUrOSES N1, and this choice. This was my round 5 game, and one thing that Quackle won't take into account was that, in my first 4 games (this was round 5) the only XQJZ I had drawn all day were a J and X in round 2, and the Q I threw back into the bag on my first turn of this one. Opponents had been repeatedly hitting big plays with their power tiles. Given how the day had been going my gut told me that if I put down NEUrOSES, he'd come right back with a Z, J, or X bomb at 8L. Thus, I rejected NEUrOSES due to board position and put this down. The highest scoring bingo available is 11F ExODUSES, and other options are 15H ESpOUSE(R), 4E rE(AR)OUSES, and L1 (L)EUkOSES. Of those options, rE(AR)OUSES and LEUkOSES would have been the only things preventing his next play. ExODUSES and EsPOUSER are best and they win 70%. This wins 63.
>Joey_Mallick: EINOSTZ 4D NOT..IZES +122 294
#note JB: To think I was worried about his coming back with a paltry 69-point Z play at 8L if I'd put down NEUROSES. OUCH!!! Anyway, fantastic play, Joey! WOW!!!!!! Joey is 88% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: ?FIIILN 14J FIN +35 242
#note No bingos in this rack. Since I have all the remaining I's, I don't have to worry about getting another one if I leave myself dupes. This is clearly best, and it's 22% to win.
>Joey_Mallick: BNOOUVY 5B BUOY +30 324
>Jim_Burlant: ?AGIILM K4 .MAILInG +90 332
#note As I put this down and looked at the score, I wondered out loud - how on earth could I actually not only be in this game, but leading? Despite the lead, Q says Joey is still in the driver's seat: I'm 41% to win with this, the best bingo. Of note: K3 r(E)MIGIAL.
>Joey_Mallick: DENOPTV 8K .OVED +30 354
>Jim_Burlant: ADDGPSY E11 PADDY +34 366
#note Statically, this is best. However, in the sim it's a different story. I just saw 34 points and the ability to turn 5 tiles in a manner that guaranteed me a couple of places to score big if I landed any of the remaining counters. Quackle says 6A GYP (which I missed) wins 10% more often than this and is nearly 11 points stronger - and a look at the tile pool may provide a clue as to why. While ADDS is a hair clunky as leaves go, there are only 7 vowels in the pool of 24 unseen tiles. Certainly in light of how my end game panned out, it may have behooved me to keep my vowel. Then again, whether it would have made the difference is another story.
>Joey_Mallick: AENNPTU 15A PUNN. +33 387
>Jim_Burlant: AGJNRSW D10 JAW +43 409
#note Sim gives a slight preference to JAGRAS 12H and says this is just about as strong, but it's a vastly different story according to Championship Player. CP says JAGRAS 12A is the undisputed winner and that this wins nearly 9% less often than JAGRAS. Given that I pulled FHO on my next rack, it wound up not mattering at all what I put down here, as I needed more than one vowel in the rack to have a chance at going out before him.
>Joey_Mallick: ACEHLTX N5 AXL. +27 414
#note Board blindness strikes again. The simple LAX 10H scores another dozen points.
>Jim_Burlant: FGHNORS 3B FROG +26 435
#note FOH scores 30 at H10 or 3C, but this rack needs to be cleared as much as possible. Thus, this choice. It's best.
>Joey_Mallick: CEEHTUV 2A VEE +24 438
>Jim_Burlant: BHNRS G11 SH +21 456
#note C5 URB blocks his out and saves 1 point of spread if Championship Player is to be believed, but nothing wins. Joey and I post-mortemed this one and we couldn't find a win.
>Joey_Mallick: CHTU B5 .UTCH +14 452
>Joey_Mallick: (BNR) +10 462
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