| Player 1 |
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#player1 Joey_Mallick Joey Mallick
#player2 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
>Joey_Mallick: AAELRST -A +0 0
>Dave_Koenig: EFGIIKO 8D FOGIE +26 26
>Joey_Mallick: ?AELRST E4 REfL.ATS +78 78
>Dave_Koenig: AACIKST 7C TI.AK +34 60
#note This play sims best and definitely suits my style. However, KA 7G is only about a half a point behind and strikes me as the kind of play Joey would like.
>Joey_Mallick: AEEELNO 4D A.EOLE +14 92
>Dave_Koenig: AACDFNS 5I FAD +19 79
#note This is an interesting decision point. I was torn between placing FAD at 5I, 5G, and 3I, which are three of the four highest simming plays. I decided to avoid the highest scoring 3I placement because it created too big a hot spot at 2J. Simulation concurs with my decision, but I regretted it immediately after I drew my tiles. However, I missed the highest simming play of DECAFS I3. Not only does it score well, but it really shuts the board down, decreasing his scoring possibilities on the next turn. Still, it's only about 2.5 points ahead of my play.
>Joey_Mallick: AAEEGNR 11E .ANGAREE +68 160
>Dave_Koenig: ACINSSZ L1 ZINCS +60 139
>Joey_Mallick: IINOOVY 1L .OON +39 199
>Dave_Koenig: ?AHMNSY 9H HYMNAlS +73 212
#note This bingo jumped out to me instantly on drawing my tiles, but I spent a good amount of time looking for other ones. Turns out this rack makes no other sevens or eights. However, I did not think about the possibility of playing a non-bingo. There are three plays that sim at least a point higher than the bing: HYMN 12L, HYMEN L8, and MYTH 10C. HYMN is the highest with a full eight point edge over HYMNALS. Based on the score difference and the leave of AS?, this is not crazy, but it's still surprising to me because of the N in the triple lane. Still, HYMNALS creates the 8L-8O opening, so it's not the safest play either. I think Quackle understands something that I don't, because I can't see ever convincing myself to pass up the bingo here without having seen the sim first.
>Joey_Mallick: DIIIUVY 10C DU.Y +29 228
#note Joey: This scores just enough to forgo the exchange. IVIED gets me out of the mud a little quicker, and the Y works well on this board, but it also gives him an easy hotspot.
Dave: Yuck! These I's clog up Joey's rack for quite a few turns, though he does manage to keep finding scoring plays. Despite the three I leave, his play is not a bad one, as it scores highest of all his options and sheds the U, which is almost as important as getting rid of the I's, since the other three U's are still unseen. However, the sim and I agree that IVIED F1 is his best play. (IVIED 5B is a safer version of the same thing, but a considerable point sacrifice.) It still scores decently well and goes a long way toward clearing out this rack. The downside, of course, is the opening on row 1, but my one-time score there is probably less harmful to him than having to wade through this dreck for several turns. IVIED sims more than 3 points ahead of DUTY. The 5B placement is about 1 point ahead of DUTY.
>Dave_Koenig: ELNPTTU L8 P.L.TTE +24 236
#note I did not love this play, but I was doubting myself on some of the words I wanted to play, namely PALET and PATEN in the same spot. However, I failed to find some of the good scoring plays on other parts of the board: GETUP H11 and SPLENT N9. Sim and I both prefer GETUP. Nice score, nice leave, especially considering the fairly high number of vowels remaining. PALET is less than a point back, but PALETTE is five points back.
>Joey_Mallick: EIIIORV H11 .IVER +30 258
>Dave_Koenig: EIIJNUW 14J WI.NIE +34 270
>Joey_Mallick: DEEIIOX O12 EX.D +39 297
#note Me: I'm really sacrificing rack leave for points and defense in this game.
Dave: After a couple of obvious plays, we come to another really tough decision point. Sim supports Joey's decision to take the points with EXED despite the nasty four vowel leave. Undoubtedly one of the big arguments in favor of this play is taking the spot away from me, as he could easily get hit by something like JEED/JEEP/JEER. However, there are two other very good plays that are neck and neck with EXED in the sim. DIENE 3I scores a nice 25 points, while clearing out major vowelage and holding the X to score on the next turn. Maybe the best play (and hardest to spot) is AXIOM J5, which scores a cool 30 points and has the best leave of all of them. Not to mention it holds DIENE in reserve for the next play if the rack doesn't improve. If not for the O12-O15 opening, either one of these plays would be preferred, but taking it into account they're all about even.
>Dave_Koenig: JNPTUUU N6 JUT. +27 297
>Joey_Mallick: ACDEIIO O3 CIAO +16 313
#note Me: I guess OIDIA 2K is better since it scores more and takes out a more dangerous spot.
Dave: OIDIA 2K is clearly best here, but maybe Joey was concerned about blocking plays on column 15.
>Dave_Koenig: AMNPRUU C10 .UMP +18 315
#note This play sims second best behind the seeming desperation play of RUMP 3A. Most surprising to me is how low the winning percentages are for me. Quack has RUMP winning 36% of the time, DUMP 33%, and everything else lower. Joey is basically a tempo ahead, because after the play the score will be about even with him on the move. With bingos unlikely the rest of the way, that gives him a definite edge, but a 2:1 edge seems steep. If the situation is that grim for me, then I understand RUMP, which not only opens the triple, but also keeps rows 13-15 open for bingos. But I did not sense that I was as big an underdog as Quack did.
>Joey_Mallick: DEHILOR 6J HO +29 342
#note Dave: Clearly best. OHED and HEROIN on row 3 score well, but they give me too many comebacks on row 2.
>Dave_Koenig: ANOOQRU 14D ROQU. +34 349
>Joey_Mallick: DEILRTW 3G WED +33 375
#note WEIRD/WRIED are both better despite emptying the bag. WED loses some games even when Dave can't bingo.
Dave: Joey's play seems very natural: scoring well, leaving one in the bag, and giving him exclusive rights to the T-WO hook if he draws a bingo. There's a good chance I would have played it too. But if Quack is to be believed, it is a significant error. Sim to the end of the game prefers WRIED or WEIRD 2J winning 66% of the time, compared to only about 51% for WED. I think there are two main reasons for this: The extra points are very important in such a close game, and the 2J-2N spot is likely to be my highest scoring spot too. After WEIRD/WRIED, I probably just can't score enough on this board to catch up. Another thing to consider is that failing to empty the bag, might actually be helping me out by allowing me to play off one tile for a setup if he has an awkward three consonant draw, for example, NU 11B creating the G hook to column A.
>Dave_Koenig: ABBINOR 2J BA.RN +32 381
#note I'm at least a 3:1 underdog in any case, but Quack thinks that either BA D3 or AB D4 has me winning about 1% more of the time. I don't understand why.
>Joey_Mallick: EGILRTV 15A GIVER +35 410
#note Now it's over.
>Dave_Koenig: BIOS 5C OB. +9 390
#note Best.
>Joey_Mallick: LT G3 ..T +6 416
#note Missing DEFT/THO for 8 more points.
>Dave_Koenig: IS M9 .IS +14 404
#note Missing IS 11N for 15.
>Dave_Koenig: (L) +2 406 |
