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#player1 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Paul_Holser: DEHLORV 8D HOVEL +30 30
>Jim_Burlant: AEIILNR D8 .AIRLINE +74 74
#note Best bingo; the only other bingo options are AIRLINE at 7H or 9H for 61.
>Paul_Holser: ?ADJMPR 15A JAP.D +45 75
>Jim_Burlant: EIINOSY 14B YO.I +31 105
#note Was tossing up wither I should play SONNY, then JAPED came down and made this a no-brainer position. This is clearly best, nothing else worth considering.
>Paul_Holser: ?CGMRTU 13C M.G +31 106
>Jim_Burlant: DEGIINS 11D .ESIDING +90 195
#note A zillion potential bingos including C2 DINGIES, F6 DEVISING, E3 INDIGOES, and SIDELING H4. However, the two standouts are either this or RINGSIDE. While RINGSIDE and RESIDING both score 90, I chose this for the slightly better defensive position, and Quackle confirms it: this one is best, winning 83% according to Championship Player.
>Paul_Holser: ?BCRRTU G2 CaRBUR.T +63 169
#note Even though this is an airball which misses any significant premium space, this is the correct play for Paul, as none of the other options scores as many as 20 points. This is also an impressive find. Paul is 27% to win in a short sim; nothing else wins as much as 21%.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIOST C2 IODATES +80 275
#note Other bingo options include I2 IODATES/TOADIES, 4C ASTEROID, J4 SEDATION. This or C2 TOADIES are the clear-cut favorites, and I chose this for the less risky vowel placement, and Q agrees, though he difference is nominal in the sim. IODATES wins 0.4% more often than C2 TOADIES. Just shy of 91% to win.
>Paul_Holser: CHPSSTU H11 .UTCH +36 205
>Jim_Burlant: BEEGKTY 5A BE.KY +28 303
#note I considered 3 options - B2 KYE, B2 BY, and this. Plays that didn't unload both the K and the Y either didn't occur to or appeal to me. 40 points or not, I rejected KYE as being way too dangerous due to the unseen FFMPWWZ, so I settled on this. Both Championship Player and the 2-ply sim are conflicted in that the highest valuation plays don't win as much as slightly lower valuation plays. Championship Player says that, while sacrificing 8.2 equity to KYE, KEDGE 4A 32 is best. This is a very strong choice, as it wins only 0.34% less often than KEDGE, and 0.29% less often than KYE. Strictly regarding valuation, KYE is the clear winner, with this choice a 7-1/2 point dog, and KEDGE evaluating one point beneath this.
>Paul_Holser: EOPRSSZ 14H .OZ +34 239
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGTTX A5 .EGAT +24 327
#note This was a tossup between this choice and EX B1. Since Paul only turned 2 tiles (even if it was a Z dump), I didn't like that B sitting at 5A. I wanted to clear more of this rack to be able to respond on the next turn. I also figured that, with F6 XU available, I was guaranteed at least 25 for the X, so the X could wait. Q wants me to man up, leave the A column alone, and take the points. EX wins 91.6%, and this is the runner up, winning 91.3.
>Paul_Holser: ELMPRSS 3F S.MPLERS +78 317
#note Best bingo for Paul - RUMPLESS also plays at 6F for 66. He's back up to 28% winning chances.
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNTX B1 AX +36 363
#note Looked at this rack and only considered two options: XU 6F and this choice. I opted for this not just for the extra points, but I felt that, if he did something to screw up the northeast quadrant, my fish might lead to a no-go high-prob rack that wouldn't score so I wanted the extra 11 points. Championship Player indicates this was the better of the two choices, as it wins 2% more often and is 4-1/2 points better than XU. And, while it's certainly not bad to dump 2 tiles, score 36 and keep EILNT together, the lesson to be gleaned from this position is that you should ALWAYS look at the whole board. While my choice was Championship Player's undisputed silver medalist, there was a much better play available that I didn't see because I was too busy evaluating whether it was worth 11 points to keep AEILNT vs. EILNT: ALEXIN 15J scores 53 and is clearly best, winning 4-1/2% more often than this.
>Paul_Holser: ?AAEEOT D4 O.A +22 339
>Jim_Burlant: EFILNOT B9 OF +15 378
#note Quackle wants me to jump into the bag with 2K FOIL and L1 FORINT, and, given the unseen FT?, its bronze medalist of OF 12K is a very risky play that could have just as easily backfired as easily as it set me up. I saw the equity plays and didn't like them. FOIL potentially gives up way too much on row 1, FORINT blows the rack up and makes it too easy for him to hit a 7 down the M column. Paul had just dumped AO, and once again I thought (correctly, as he told me post-mortem) he was close to something. In my own mind I was committed to rack grooming by this point. I thought that, by doing this, if he did hit something it would be down the K or L columns, which would hopefully open up lines for easy 7's for me. Q doesn't like this play at all, but it got the job done.
>Paul_Holser: ?AEETVW F8 .AW. +20 359
#note Paul told me post-mortem that his rack was a no-go WAVELET with a blank L. This is an incredibly tough spot for a human, as almost any human is going to be tempted to try to play for the bingo and leave all the lines open. Since he's sitting on the blank, Q's recommendation is that he play 2K WEAVE 31, which wins 61% against a random rack; his choice wins 49. Against my rack, WEAVE wins 65%, and VAWS wins 32.5.
>Jim_Burlant: EEILNNT M3 .ENTINEL +60 438
#note Had Paul played WK WEAVE, I'd have been in a very tough spot; it I would have had no plays available that scored more than 24 points, and I'd have had to guess whether the bigger threat was a blank bingo or his hitting a huge scoring play with the counters on row 1. Instead, my bingo plays. This is the only playable bingo, and it wins 92%.
>Paul_Holser: ?ADEETV J2 E.EVATeD +65 424
#note Q doesn't agree with this choice at all. Where CaRBURET was Paul's clear-cut best play, Quackle wants Paul to forego the bingo. Championship Player says that VANED 8K and L1 VERA are the plays. Then again, Quackle doesn't know that the remaining bag is EFIOOQRW. Against my rack of AINNRUU, 15H HEAVED and 8K VANED are the standouts in the 2-ply sim. This bingo wins less than 8%.
>Jim_Burlant: AINNRUU N10 INURN +18 456
#note Championship Player says 4 plays win 100%; this is one of them. CP says N7 NU is best.
>Paul_Holser: EFIOOQW L7 QI +26 450
#note While WIFE O7 is the best play against a computer, this has the advantage of potentially luring me into a mistake, as I'll explain shortly.
>Jim_Burlant: ARU 15G U. +5 461
#note I was utterly amazed that, despite how unbelievably well I'd drawn, Paul had managed to force an end game. This was my game to win or lose; make the right play here and win, make the wrong play and lose. I put down AR 15J 13...and realized right as I was about to hit the clock that it would have given him 38 points and the win by letting him have WOOF L12. This doesn't even make it into Quackle's kibbitzer, but it immediately vaults to the top of the sim. I chose this because it left me out plays all over the board.
>Paul_Holser: EFOOW O8 WOE +21 471
>Jim_Burlant: AR 15J AR +13 474
>Jim_Burlant: (FO) +10 484
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