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#player1 karris karris
#player2 cesar cesar
>karris: III -III +0 0
>cesar: FIIKLMX 8G FIX +26 26
#note this game was sort of annotated but never posted. i was pretty set on KILIM until he exchanged 3 and thought i should play it closed. I'm giving up 9 equity points. that may be too much. giving him a crazy rack like ARES puts me down only 2.5 equity points. giving him ERS? puts me down 2 equity pts. so in any case i was wrong because i can score with the X next turn probably, plus MILK is an unwieldy leave.
>karris: AHM 7H HAM +24 24
>cesar: IKLMQST 6J MILK +28 54
#note ham came down after a long time, and then i guess i decided to throw my theory out the window. this was one of my hardest decisions of the tourney. i would normally play QIS K5 and probably should to let him deal with it, but i liked MILK for several reasons. i have the S, the K is bingo unfriendly, i am slightly more likely to draw a Y since he has strong bingo tiles... but this just has to be too open. also with QIS i have MILK next turn if anything too. i still don't know what's right. MILK wins the sim, but QIS wins by 3 if i inference the very strong ERS?, which I should. this shows how inconsistent i can be from turn to turn, choosing FIX over KILIM and then blowing up the board.. it's nonsensical.
>karris: ?DEIRSU 5E RESIDUa +87 111
#note agh
>cesar: AFNPQST 9F QAT +25 79
>karris: BIL M3 BIL. +20 131
>cesar: EFINNPS 10E FIN +27 106
#note i saw both possible 8s here.. they're both fun. this was also a hard play, i strongly considered PENIS but could not wrap my head around it. i thought i'd better just suck it up and leave the big Y spot open and take less points to go for the bingo. this may have been a cock-up of a play as i can totally get shafted by a 40-pt play, but i don't think there is a vas deferens between the two plays, even though FIN wins by quite a bit.
>karris: EELOP 4C ELOPE +22 153
>cesar: EEHNNPS 6D PEH +35 141
#note cool, i'm almost caught up
>karris: ?EGIORS 11F SOGgIER +83 236
>cesar: ENNNSTZ J10 Z.NE +33 174
#note ok, let's do some math here. first of all, equity wise of course ZIN is a much better play than ZINE. i just figured there was almost no chance he wasn't going to hook ZIN, plus i could draw a big B spot that he just *might* miss (hey, i have to go for luck now). there's 11 tiles that hook ZIN and he's drawn to 52 tiles. the chances of him not having one are (41/52)*(40/51)*(39/50)*(38/49)*(37/48)*(36/47)*(35/46) or 16.8% (seriously, is there a way to estimate this in the middle of a game? i need to come up with a good formula). so quackle is telling me to just give up the 35+ pts, but go for the bingo yourself.. i guess that makes sense. (-6)
>karris: ADEGISV 14H VISAGED +94 330
>cesar: EENNRST - +0 174
#note i was 99% sure that was good, but seeing as how i have no shot to win anymore and he blocked my bingo, i have to challenge.
>karris: OTY N4 TOY +40 370
#note crap
>cesar: EENNRST 14F EN....... +16 190
#note FANON!!! (-9.5)
>karris: ACW L2 CAW +32 402
>cesar: ENNRRST 3A ERN +10 200
#note wow, did i actually play that?
>karris: EJ A1 JE. +30 432
>cesar: ENORSTW 15A STOWER +41 241
#note yeah well whatever
>karris: GTU A12 GUT. +7 439
>cesar: ACNNTUU 13A .NCUT +14 255
#note 9J AUNT (-8) i also considered fishing for JUNCTION but could not find a spot for AU
>karris: DEOT O1 DOTE +26 465
>cesar: AANORUY H11 .UA.A +30 285
#note gravy scores more
>karris: AILOV 1A .OVIAL +17 482
>cesar: ABNOORY 15K BORON +37 322
>karris: ADIR 2E RAID +13 495
>karris: (AY) +10 505
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