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#player1 Fran_Silver Fran Silver
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Fran_Silver: DDO 8H ODD +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: IINPRSS K5 PINS +18 18
#note No 7's in this rack, and the only letters that make an 8 are A (ASPIRINS), E (INSPIRES), and G (PRISSING). As for this choice, it's 4th or 5th best. Best is a play I couldn't think of, 7G PSI. Frankly, I'm surprised this doesn't sim worse than it does. There's no good reason to unload the N, and this play also gives up potential Q and X bombs. Too much risk for not enough extra gain. PSI should have been the play, but this did work out.
>Fran_Silver: Q 6J Q. +31 41
>Jim_Burlant: EIOPRST 4F ROPIEST +81 99
#note Any of the 7's play on rows 4, 7, and 9, and DIOPTERS/DIOPTRES is available down the I and J columns. That said, this is best.
>Fran_Silver: ABM 3E BAM +19 60
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAHKTW 5C HAWK +35 134
#note I did not auto-pilot this play, and I saw T(O)mAHAWK H7. However, not only did the board position make TOMAHAWK very risky with SS? unseen, it only scored 68 points to this play's 35. Q agrees with my assessment, saying that either this or 2C THAW are the best plays. The bingo wins 4% less often, and it sims 6 points down on this. Yes, I saw that LEZ could conceivably score 51 (not a threat if I played THAW 2C), but I felt that for 35 and an AT? leave, I'd take that chance.
>Fran_Silver: DOT 4B DOT +17 77
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEELTT 7C pALETTE +64 198
#note Talked myself out of GALETTE, didn't see E5 WETTAbLE; WETTAbLE, which wins a little over 93.5% in a short sim, should have been the play. This wins 92.75 and sims roughly 6.5 points down.
>Fran_Silver: AEINRSU L3 U. +2 79
#note Fran told me post-mortem that this was her rack. While I've been in control of this game pretty much from the word go and Quackle says DENARIUS only wins 12%, I'd say she had a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 shot of winning had she found it. My post-bingo rack of AEIIINR didn't give me a viable row 15 play if she'd slotted the S with DENARIUS; who knows how differently this game would have progressed if I had to leave an S sitting wide open at 15J?
>Jim_Burlant: AEIIINR 8A INIA +19 217
#note Also briefly considered a non-bingo DENARII J8 for extra turnover to go for a blank, but passed it up. This is best, and DENARII is the sim runner up, though that's more of a reflection of how limited the options are with this rack.
>Fran_Silver: AEIINRS 2H SENARII +71 150
>Jim_Burlant: EGIOOOR 1D GOOIER +35 252
#note Again, one clear-cut favorite and nothing else is worth consideration. This was a huge play out of an otherwise cruddy rack. 92% to win in a short sim.
>Fran_Silver: ANV 3A VAN +27 177
>Jim_Burlant: AAGHNOX 9B AX +36 288
#note It takes a while for the sim to sort itself out, and Q eventually gives the slimmest of preferences to 1M HAG. HAG wins 0.05% more often and sims 1.2 points better. I'd rather just take the 36 points. Either way, I'm winning 96.5%.
>Fran_Silver: GIRY 10B GYRI +33 210
>Jim_Burlant: AEGHNOR 1M HOG +28 316
#note Looked for an 8 but couldn't find one; a check of Zyzzyva reveals that the only letter that makes an 8 with this is a V for OVERHANG or HANGOVER. As for this choice, it's best. Plays like 9I HO do better than this statically, but they give up too much on the scoreboard.
>Fran_Silver: CL B1 CL.. +14 224
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRRU H7 ..UR +4 320
#note Had no clue what to do and the kibbitzer confirms there are no good options. Q likes 11E NAIRU, presumably because it maximizes both score and turnover with JSZ? still unseen. I didn't see NAIRU, but I'm not sure I like it, as it makes it too easy for her to bingo. I was trying to make it a little harder for her to hit the 2x2 and balance the rack at the same time. And, assuming she had a bingo, it would almost be guaranteed to open something up for my AEINR leave. One last point - I didn't want to turn a lot of tiles and get slammed with 3 E's - a distinct possibility with 6 E's still unseen and Fran seemingly close to something if her last play was any indication. This choice sims mid-pack.
>Fran_Silver: TZ E9 Z.T +24 248
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINRV 12A NAEVI +31 351
#note The sim likes 12D NIEVE, which does a better job playing the pool with those 5 unseen E's. My only concern about that play is that, like NAIRU on the last turn, it makes it too easy for her to bingo. With this choice, if she doesn't have an S, any bingo she can put down will be an airball. The sim says this is still a very strong play, and it's 97.5% to win. It wins 0.25% less often than NIEVE, though this sims nearly 4 points down. I'd make this play again.
>Fran_Silver: M 3L .M +24 272
>Jim_Burlant: ABDEFOR 13B EF +22 373
#note Those 5 unseen E's were jumping out at me and it didn't occur to me to look for plays that kept it. The 2-ply sim prefers OAF 13A by a statistically insignificant margin; this is an almost indistinguishable runner-up. The bronze medalist sims over 3 points down on this.
>Fran_Silver: EFJLNOU -EFJ +0 272
>Jim_Burlant: ABDFORY 10G F.AY +18 391
#note Best scoring play and sim winner is A11 ANDRO, which I passed up since I didn't like leaving myself BFY. This sims with the highest valuation and wins roughly 0.3% less often than ANDRO. This wins 99.5%.
>Fran_Silver: ?CEENOS 11I SECONdE +73 345
#note Fran passed up the row 13 placement because she was convinced I'd come back through it with the J. Q says her best play is ONCE 11J, passing up the bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: BDLORTU O5 TROUBL.D +89 480
#note Kapow!
>Jim_Burlant: (EEEJLUW) +34 514
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