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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Ben_Withers Ben Withers
>Jim_Burlant: AADKOSU 8G AUK +14 14
#note Lots of choices and the sim prefers 8G KUDO. This is runner up at just over 1000 2-ply iterations, not quite 1% and 2 points down on KUDO. considered, KUDOS, sims 1% and 2 points down on this. I chose this over KUDO because I wanted to balance the rack. ADOS, admittedly, isn't as juicy as ADES. But I'd still take that over AA this early.
>Ben_Withers: JR G7 R.J +19 19
>Jim_Burlant: ADOSTVW 10F VAW +28 42
#note Q likes F6 VOW; I'm lukewarm on it. Despite the ADST leave (which I admit is better than the DOST this choice leaves) I'm not keen on giving him a wide-open run at the 2x2 line given that he just dinked off 2 tiles. This wins roughly 2% less often and sims 4 points down on F6 VOW.
>Ben_Withers: ?ADINOR 11H ORDAINs +69 88
#note And if I'd played VOW like quackle wanted last turn, he'd have hit the 2x2 for 88 points. Other bingo optoins for Ben are J2 ORDAINs, ORDINAl 11H, J8 sADIRON.
>Jim_Burlant: DDEIOST 12B TODDIES +77 119
#note Best bingo. ODDITIES plays in the L column (L6, L8) for 74 also.
>Ben_Withers: AVW 13A VAW +30 118
>Jim_Burlant: EEEILNZ A13 .EE +18 137
#note Best is B10 ZETA; missed it due to the triplicated E's. This sims mid-pack.
>Ben_Withers: ABGNY L8 ABY.NG +26 144
>Jim_Burlant: EILLNNZ K5 ZEIN +28 165
#note Right idea, wrong execution. ZILL in this same location was the play. I'm roughly 46% to win.
>Ben_Withers: AHH L4 HAH +34 178
>Jim_Burlant: BCLLNOU D8 CLOU. +11 176
#note Weak. Best appears to be I2 BULLOCK (didn't see it), and the sim also likes I2 UNBLOCK, which I passed on - I didn't like opening up row 1 with SSS unseen. This is weak. I'm squandering my winning chances, but Ben is about to give me a huge break.
>Ben_Withers: EILPSST N5 SPITLE.S +67 245
>Ben_Withers: EILPSST -- -67 178
#note When he put this down, I immediately held. I saw he had missed EPISTLES 15A (I didn't even notice the HAH front hook), and I had a flashback to the second game he and I had ever played. In that game, he had an unplayable bingo, so he put down something he knew was phony, hoping he could get it past me. Seeing this,I had this sense of deja vu. Additionally, he had blocked the line I wanted to play on, and the other line I could bingo on (at F1) was much more dangerous. Since I had a bingo coming back no matter what (if I lost the challenge he was probably going to play down the O column) I elected to challenge. 3G TIPLESS wins 87%, EPISTLES wins 84%. Having his phony challenged off wins 67. Ben said after the game he had gotten tunnel vision and didn't even notice the E at 15A.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABLNTU N4 ABLUeNT. +62 238
#note The three bingos (this, TUNABLe, and BUTANoL(s)) are all airballs. Normally, BUTANoL(s) would be a better choice due to vowel placement, but I know his rack and know he's either playing on rows 3 or 15 for his next turn, so it's worth the risk. Simmed against his rack of TIPLESS, this choice sims best, and it wins 62%.
>Ben_Withers: EILPSST 3F STIPELS +73 251
#note Missing TIPLESS 3G, which wins 45%; Ben is now just under 40% winning chances.
>Jim_Burlant: EMOOPRR O1 PROMO +47 285
#note Best, and I'm now 67% to win. Amazing how much one missed turn completely changed this game.
>Ben_Withers: AEEFGQX -AEE +0 251
>Jim_Burlant: AEIORTT O8 TO +11 296
#note Giiven that Ben had just exchanged, I didn't mind sacrificing some equity to groom the rack and defend against the cheap X bomb. The sim likes 8A OTIC.
>Ben_Withers: GGR H1 GR.G +24 275
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEIRT 8A TRA.E +21 317
#note Not sure why I played the A instead of the I (only one A unseen vs. 4 I's, I definitely should have played the I here), but this wound up working out well. Best is 11C CUE. This is weak.
>Ben_Withers: INTUY J9 NU.ITY +20 295
>Jim_Burlant: CEEINOR A4 EREC.ION +61 378
#note Missing EROGENIC 1E. The sim says EROGENIC is 5 points better than this; in reality, it's probably 50 points better.
>Ben_Withers: EILSX B2 SILEX +85 380
#note Ouch!!!!
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEFIQ A1 QI +35 413
>Ben_Withers: EFIMO B10 FE.. +30 410
#note Apparently, Championship Player believes that F3 SEIF is Ben's best play. Regardless, he doesn't have a win.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEF 2J FE +28 441
>Ben_Withers: IMO F1 MI.O +8 418
#note All it takes is one mistake. Given that I really wasn't playing this one particularly well, it's safe to say the SPITLESS* play cost him the game.
>Ben_Withers: (ADE) +8 426
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