| Player 1 |
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#player1 jd jd
#player2 Glenda_Short Glenda Short
>jd: MORRTUV 8G VUM +16 16
#note I would expect vum to be a fair bit more defensive than ovum, but the numbers say it's not necessarily. ovum has a slight edge on the sim.
>Glenda_Short: ??AEITX 9H TAXItEs +71 71
>jd: AAORRRT F7 ROAR +15 31
>Glenda_Short: INY 10I YIN +29 100
>jd: AERSTTV E9 TAV +16 47
#note I really wants to hit a double-double but there are no good ones after she blocks vastier.
>Glenda_Short: EGLPT K5 PELT..G +40 140
#note this is not going well
>jd: BEJNRST 6J J.T +26 73
>Glenda_Short: IOO 7J O.IO +16 156
>jd: BCENRSU 8M BUN +21 94
>Glenda_Short: DEW D8 DEW +18 174
>jd: CEEELRS G10 EEL +10 104
#note quackle is seriously not a fan of this play, but assuming she plays pretty defensively I need this lane pretty badly. I'm not a big fan of playing across at 8A because she can just play on column B and I will only be left with tough lanes to hit.
quackle's dislike of EEL is because it offers cheap points to the triple, but I think quackle significantly overestimated my bingo chances after LEV or REED.
>Glenda_Short: GHIORT C3 RIGHTO +25 199
#note it's a cool word, but I have to wonder why she wouldn't play at column H.
>jd: CDELNRS 8A CL.. +21 125
>Glenda_Short: DGI 5C .ID +10 209
>jd: DEENRST 13A TENDERS +73 198
#note yay I bingoed!
>Glenda_Short: OOZ B2 ZOO +28 237
>jd: AEFINOS A11 OF.EN +36 234
#note she blocked farinose but I still get to catch up a bit.
>Glenda_Short: DEGU 15A .UDGE +9 246
>jd: AEIIISS B7 I.IA +8 242
#note aaaaargh I just want to catch up
>Glenda_Short: M 14A .M +18 264
>jd: AEIRSSY 14D AYE +23 265
#note omg I'm actually in the lead! I figured that I would tack on the E because I need all the points I can get, and there won't be much bingoing from this point out.
>Glenda_Short: BILO 4A B..L +22 286
>jd: CEINRSS 6A IC.S +31 296
#note boy did I need this play
>Glenda_Short: AAAIKNO -AA +0 286
#note I figured she had the Q, but it turned out that instead she exchaged and kept a great bingo leave - however, that's not going to be of any use to her on this board.
>jd: AEHNNRS A6 .N.H +17 313
#note with the Q out I really wanted to minimize turnover. this and ICHS were the two most important plays ofthe game
>Glenda_Short: AP 12F A.P +11 297
>jd: AAEKNRS I8 ...A +9 322
#note at the time I didn't think I had an alternative to this play, but quackle comes up with two plays that it thinks do better - KAAS at F2 or GAR at 11K. KAAS wins 90%, GAR 83%, my play 80%.
so the question is, what do those numbers mean? first of all I believe GAR is the function of misplays - responses to my opponent playing on row 12. quackle has me averaging 46 points a turn next turn if I play GAR. this is not a realistic number. As far as KAAS goes, I think I can see the idea. KAAS creates a Q spot if I draw QI, and I'm set if I draw QU. Even if I draw the Q and am going to get stuck with it, I have a 40 point headstart and I should still be able to outrun her. KAAS feels counterintuitive to me, but I can accept that it may be the right play.
>Glenda_Short: AEFIORW L11 OF +13 310
>jd: AEKNRSU F2 KENS +24 346
#note I was trying to figure out a way to stick her with the Q. ultimately I was satisfied with this play because if she doesn't pay attention and plays QI I respond with QUA for 36, so it effectively sticks her. quackle's favorite of FERN at 12L setting up ANKUS and AUKS as outs actually does 1 worse - it doesn't come up with KENS as a suggestion.
>Glenda_Short: AEIQRSW M11 RAW +21 331
#note she should block my out. in fact playing QI sims as good as AR (best play that doesn't give me QUA) since it gives her sewar to go out.
>jd: ARU 2D RA.U +8 354
#note phew! I was never sure I would win this one.
>jd: (EIQS) +26 380
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