| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Scott_Garner Scott Garner
>Jim_Burlant: AADFGOW 8G WOAD +16 16
#note Bleah. Puzzled over this rack like it was Greek before shrugging my shoulders and putting this down. Best is apparently 8G GOWD, keeping AAF. I didn't think AFG was a real prize as leaves go, but I didn't want to keep duplicated A's. This wins roughly 0.8% less often than GOWD at a loss of 1.7 equity.
>Scott_Garner: EX 9H EX +36 36
>Jim_Burlant: ACEFGSV 7I FAVE +34 50
#note Didn't like the board position but I figured Q would want me to unload the V, even at the expense of board position. I guessed wrong. Q wants me to play 7I FAG keeping CESV. This is runner up, but it wins 4% less often and at a valuation loss of nearly 9 points to FAG. I'm 47% to win.
>Scott_Garner: BMOSW M3 WOMBS +38 74
>Jim_Burlant: CGILNSU 5J CUL. +16 66
#note Hated what this did to the board, but this or CUM are best, as they're pretty much identical plays in Quackle's eyes. Q says it's style preference if you prefer keeping SLING or SING, and I don't like keeping 4 consonants to one vowel if I can help it.
>Scott_Garner: HY G8 .HY +33 107
>Jim_Burlant: DGINOST N2 GOD +18 84
#note That hurt - he blocked my intended cute play of GOW(D)/D(EX). I didn't like this, as it played for 18 and could easily give back 40, but the rack and board really didn't leave me much choice. Q agrees: this is best.
>Scott_Garner: BMU F10 BUM +26 133
>Jim_Burlant: IINPSST 13C PINS +20 104
#note Q likes a nice play I didn't see: O3 PSI. This is decent, but not great. PSI wins 35%; this wins 31.5 and sacrifices 7-1/2 equity.
>Scott_Garner: AK O3 KA +22 155
>Jim_Burlant: EEIRSTU 12E E.U +7 111
#note FAIL. Missing EMERITUS. This is the best non-bingo optoin. I missed EMERITUS when I enumerated 8's in EEIRSTU?. EMERITUS 12E was the play.
>Scott_Garner: AEHINRT J5 .H.. +18 173
#note Scott told me after the game that he was sitting on HAIRNET when he fished off the H. This is absolutely the correct play for him. Scott knows that, from my PINS play, I'm obviously sitting on another S, and with me having fished, he's probably expecting me to hit something down the B column which should give him somewhere to play his probable bingo on the next turn.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIRSTV B7 DIVERTS +70 181
#note Given that he'd just fished off one, I wasn't feeling very confident about my chances in this game; I figured he'd counter my 70 with an 80-pointer of his own. Scott's next move was one of the key inflection points of this game.
>Scott_Garner: AAEINRT 8A A. +6 179
#note Again, this was Scott's actual rack, which left him with a tough choice: fish again or score? RETINA is certainly a very tempting fish, and he was absolutely correct to fish off the H on his previous turn. I asked Scott about this the next day and he said he felt it was worth trying to fish for one more turn before blowing up his rack. This position, I'm not sure I'd have fished. Unless the fish opens up another line, the odds of drawing into a PLAYABLE bingo are not that good as he needs either an I or L (at best a 20% chance of drawing one of those) if he's going to bingo down the E or L columns. More importantly, TAENIA A3 scores 30, turns 6 with ??JSZ unseen, and gives him a 22-point lead. On this board, trailing by 22 could put me in serious trouble. At well over 1000 2-ply iterations, the sim says it's a tossup between this choice and TAENIA. My vote is TAENIA; your mileage may vary.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ENOOTT C2 TEsTOON +71 252
#note Yes, this is an unbelievably lucky draw. But what do I do with it if he plays TAENIA on the previous turn? This is the only bingo btw, and it wins 82% in a short sim.
>Scott_Garner: AEIINRT E4 INERTIA +72 251
#note Despite the 1-point difference, Scott's 36% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEILLP B1 LIPE +21 273
#note Yuck - no matter how I look at it, I have to open up something really dangerous, and I'll confess - I didn't see the D column plays. I didn't like this at all but didn't see much else, and I put this down, crossing fingers that he didn't have AZO in his rack. Best is apparently D2 ILEA, and that looks really slick, setting up a 5 at D1 for the next turn. This is mid-pack, which is more of a reflection of how limited the options are on this board.
>Scott_Garner: Q 9D Q. +11 262
#note And when you're having the tournament of your life, these are the sorts of breaks you catch that go in your favor. I've just made a poor play and Scott is addled with the Q, so he has to dump it, which spares me any repercussions from what I've just done.
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEELO A1 ALA +23 296
#note Best. Yes, the leave is awful. But now, if he can't bingo down the L column or if he doesn't have an S for an H12 play, what's he going to do on this board? Better to take the points now and have a possibly free exchange on the next turn. This is the only play that wins more than 50%.
>Scott_Garner: DEENRT L7 .NTERED +18 280
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEIOO -EIOO +0 296
#note As inconsistently as I've played in this game, I was smart when I had to be, and I'll stand by this as the smartest play I made all game. I took several minutes evaluating this turn before exchanging. Looking at the kibbitzer, there are three rack cleaners worth considering: OO(R)IE 11J, CO(D)EIA 13J, and CO(R)IA 11J. I considered CODEIA and CORIA, and couldn't think of OORIE, but looking at the board and pool, I don't like that one either. Scott had just drawn 6 tiles from a rapidly shrinking pool, and SJZ? are still unseen to me. Any of CODEIA, OORIE, or CORIA could give back a power-tile bomb that would clinch the game for Scott. Quackle prefers OORIE and COOE(R) on row 11 - pfft. With the potential drawbacks those plays have, I felt - and still do - that whoever opened up would lose here, and that the best play was no play.
>Scott_Garner: ?GGLORT 11K G.OG +12 292
#note Scott told me after the game that this was his rack. He mentioned post-mortem that he had forgotten that the J was still out there, and that he was gambling that I didn't have the S. Q says that, apparently, his best play is 10J GREGO. His options are limited given this board, but I wonder if he'd have been better off with something like GL(E)G 10J, or doing what I did and playing chicken and making me risk opening up.
>Jim_Burlant: ACEJNSY O8 JAYS +49 345
#note What an awesome draw! Prior to his opening up the triple, I was expecting to play CAN(D)Y 13I for 28, but this was a no-brainer. This is best, nothing else worth consideration. I'm winning 81%.
>Scott_Garner: ?ORT K11 .ROT +10 302
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEINO 14H CEN. +8 353
#note Q wants me to play offense with AGONE or AGONIC N10. I'd rather defend and make sure he can't score 40+ with that Z? combination. Q doesn't like this at all, but I don't mind slogging - even if he plays something like ZIN F2, I'll still be able to milk my vowels for 15 points, and I have enough of a lead to get away with it.
>Scott_Garner: ?FILRUZ N11 .ULF +16 318
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIINO O14 AE +11 364
>Scott_Garner: ?IIRRZ F2 ZIt +32 350
>Jim_Burlant: EIINO H13 I.E +15 379
>Scott_Garner: IRR 15F IR. +3 353
>Jim_Burlant: INO 11A I.ON +4 383
>Jim_Burlant: (R) +2 385
|
