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#player1 Mike_Waugh Mike Waugh
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Waugh: CEINPT H4 PECTIN +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: AAHRSXY I3 YAH +22 22
#note Irritated that I had this rack and didn't go first with it, so I didn't recognize that HYRAX played at I1. HYRAX is best; this is weak.
>Mike_Waugh: AEEMRSY -AEEMR +0 26
>Jim_Burlant: CLMRSSX 4H ..LMS +18 40
#note I bungled my first play pretty badly, but I got this one right. With 18 points available, there's no reason to exchange when I can leave myself 4 positive tiles.
>Mike_Waugh: IOT K3 O.IT +12 38
>Jim_Burlant: ACILRSX G8 XI +22 62
#note Despite giving up huge points on the scoreboard to RAX 2H, Q likes this best and it's 66% to win. 10H SIX is also worth consideration.
>Mike_Waugh: DIJN F9 DJIN +32 70
>Jim_Burlant: ACFLRST 11D FL.C +18 80
#note Best, as it preserves the ARST leave. If the bingo doesn't come, I still have the S for a potential play at H11.
>Mike_Waugh: EEP 12B PEE +20 90
#note This was reckless. It's one thing to open up an exclusive hook that only you have (e.g.: a word only takes a front D, the blanks are out, and you're sitting on the last D). But it's another open up a high-probability hook to the triple line. Granted, I don't know how many E's he had in his rack. But even if he had 4 of them, it was ill-advised to open an E hook with 7 of them unseen.
>Jim_Burlant: AEFKRST A10 FREAKS +49 129
#note Where I began to realize the bingos probably wouldn't happen was when I drew the F as the first tile out of the bag after having dumped the other one. His play of PEE smelled like a setup for an E hook, and taking that out was my first priority. Maybe KERFS 11A would have been a hair better to preserve AT and not allow any sort of play down the B column. But I don't mind blowing this up for 49 points. Q doesn't like this much because I'm breaking up the whole rack instead of keeping the much more powerful ES with KRAFT H11. Q also preserves KAF 13A keeping ERST.
>Mike_Waugh: ?AEEQRT J6 EQuATER +73 163
>Mike_Waugh: ?AEEQRT -- -73 90
>Jim_Burlant: AGGORTU 14A .AGU +18 147
#note Knowing his rack, I was hoping to bait him into burning his blank to play his Q. Even simmed against a random rack this isn't bad, though 13C TUG doesn't open up the triple.
>Mike_Waugh: ?AEEQRT B6 QuARE +42 132
#note His best play is clearly 2H QAT leaving EER?. When I asked him after the game, he replied that he did know the A front hook to YAH. One mistake many of the lower-rated players make is that they don't assign sufficient value to the blank. Unless you're in a late or end-game situation where you need to make the game-saving play, or if you've got both blanks in your rack and want to split them, the blank needs to fetch somewhere in the neighborhood of 27 - 28 points more than the next best play that doesn't use it. This is not a good decision by Mike, and a 2-ply sim confirms it. 2H QAT wins 43%. This choice wins 31, and sacrifices 21 points of valuation.
>Jim_Burlant: GHOORTV 8A G.VOT +30 177
#note What would I have done with this crap if he hadn't opened up 8A?
>Mike_Waugh: EOTU 6B .UOTE +16 148
>Jim_Burlant: DEHNORW 15D HONED +48 225
#note Kept the R because I did want to start building a rack. Q says I should have played it for 3 more points. Whatever.
>Mike_Waugh: AB 5D BA +16 164
>Jim_Burlant: ALRRTWZ 4B TZAR +39 264
#note Or TRAWL in the same location, but this worked out.
>Mike_Waugh: DO B2 DO. +8 172
>Jim_Burlant: AILNRWW A1 WAW +35 299
#note I'm now 98% to win.
>Mike_Waugh: ?DEIRST L6 aSTRIDE +67 239
>Jim_Burlant: AILNOOR K9 OLIO +20 319
#note Or K10 OORALI. I'm still 96% to win.
>Mike_Waugh: ABU 8L .ABU +18 257
>Jim_Burlant: AGNNRRV 2K VANG +26 345
#note Best.
>Mike_Waugh: OY 1L YO +20 277
>Jim_Burlant: ELMNRRS 9J N..M +16 361
>Mike_Waugh: EEEIINU N2 .ENIE +8 285
>Jim_Burlant: EILRRS O7 S.RLIER +8 369
#note F2 LIS wins by 7 more.
>Jim_Burlant: (EIU) +6 375
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