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#player1 Matthew_Tunnicliffe Matthew Tunnicliffe
#player2 Jason_Keller Jason Keller
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: BNOPSTW 8G BOW +16 16
>Jason_Keller: CFT H7 C.FT +9 9
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: BDENPST -BP +0 16
#note On a more open board, maybe keep the D. On this board, keeping four consos is a mistake.
>Jason_Keller: EQUU 10H .UQUE +34 43
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ADENOST M4 DONATES +75 91
>Jason_Keller: MMY L10 .MMY +22 65
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: FHINSTW L2 WHIT +28 119
>Jason_Keller: DNR 13K R.ND +16 81
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EFGNRSS 14J FES +28 147
>Jason_Keller: ?AELPST 15D PuLSATE +88 169
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEGGNRS O7 NAGGERS +89 236
>Jason_Keller: DEERY 6I REDE.Y +31 200
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: GILNPXZ 2L .IZ +30 266
#note Time to kill that ODONATES hook, which was starting to worry me.
>Jason_Keller: AJV H12 JAV. +22 222
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AGLLNPX 13G P.X +23 289
#note I missed GALAX, which is probably a little better than PAX. Another play which humorously simming well is J5 PEAL. Kills the board. But I think it's a little to early to bank on a strategy like that.
>Jason_Keller: ERT K8 TR.E +16 238
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AGLLNOU 5D LANUGO +16 305
#note Shrug. No idea what to do here. I think this was part of a long-term plan to sort of kill the board or something by playing parallel to this word next turn. In the meantime, he can bingo through the L or A if he has it. But I was kind of worried about the easy lane for a seven. Another play which sort of does this is 7E GUACO. The letters which can hook ROW are in short supply, so that's definitely interesting + 22 pts. Top simmer is D12 LOUP. Banking on the strength of the leave, I guess. But the fact that that play sims best shows just how slim the options were with this rack. LANUGO likely suffers from turning over too many tiles into a very very vowel-heavy unseen pool. I should have considered that.
>Jason_Keller: EO 12H .OE +19 257
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AIILNOO 6D OI +6 311
#note I don't think I can risk a play like D2 AIOLI have Jason's last play.
>Jason_Keller: EIRR H1 RERI. +21 278
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AIILNOU F1 UNIO. +7 318
>Jason_Keller: BHO 7B HOB +14 292
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AAAILLO B7 .ILLOA +11 329
#note So yeah, what on earth do I do here? I am at risk of losing to a bingo, but also to just being outraced. Altho maybe I was too paranoid about being outraced. The board is pretty dead if I successfully kill the area around HOB. I guess Jason could hit 4A VACs or something, but it will be somewhat difficult for him to outrace me without a bingo even if I only take a ~35 point lead this turn. I decided to block the easiest bingo line and make it so whoever has the K probably wins. This also means I can potentially survive a 9-letter bingo up top. Of course, if Jason has the K, he can easily win with it here. But he probably didn't have it when he played HOB, so there is a 66% chance he doesn't have it now. Also, how important is it for me to play a lot of tiles here? Obviously, the fewer turns Jason has to fish, the better. But I think the bingo becomes less of a concern after I kill the H. I figure if I am worried about getting outraced, I feel like I need to draw as many tiles as possible to prevent Jason from getting the turns he needs to race me with nonbingo plays. Oh, plus I just need to unload clunky tiles. If I need to score a few more points to win this, I will need to unload my vowels and 1-pointers and hope for some wieldier letters. Quackle's top choices are short plays. B5 AAH is 48.14% to win. That surrenders the O for possible eights. Then plays like 8A AA, 8B AI, 8A OI. All of these turn over two tiles and open a bingo lane for an eight. Should I be concerned about opening the lane? Should I be concerned about only unloading two tiles and only going up ~35 points? Just how worried should I be about nines up top? Obviously that's not something I can concern myself with this turn. Another option is 3B AALII which fixes the rack pretty well and at least obscures the H. I am kind of uncomfortable with leaving the 8-row open, though. Jason could easily drop VIDE or something there for 37. There are several plays similar to mine: HOLLA, HALAL, HALLO, HILLO, HALLOA, HALALA. I really wanted to unload the I for obvious reasons. I was ok keeping AA because I might need them for KATA or KANA or at least KA. Anyways, obviously the "whoever draws the K wins" logic of this play is oversimplified, but that was largely what I based this decision on. That and the fact that I couldn't not block the H. My play is 41.30% to win, but I think it's a little higher if you infer that Jason didn't have the K when he played HOB.
>Jason_Keller: ?ADIINT G8 .I +11 303
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AACEEIK 3C CAK.E. +26 355
#note Couldn't be sure Jason didn't have a bingo with 4 minutes on my clock, so I just sacrificed some spread to block.
>Jason_Keller: ?ADINTV A11 DAVIT +36 339
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEI 9A I.EA +5 360
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: (?N) +2 362
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