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#player1 Rob_Robinsky Rob Robinsky
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Rob_Robinsky: DGU 8G DUG +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: EEIINOQ H6 EQ.INE +15 15
#note You can count the options that aren't exchanges on one hand. Best per the 2-ply sim is to exchange 5 keeping EN, which I considered. But, even with the much weaker IO leave for EQUINE as opposed to the EN from an exchange, in my own mind I couldn't justify exchanging when I could play 5 tiles, score 15, and ensure that the Q wouldn't come back from the dead at a more critical juncture of the game. Additionally, this doesn't allow Rob to establish control of the board. The sim results indicate that there's no clear-cut right/wrong play and that it's a matter of stylistic preference: the top 8 plays (of which this is one) sim within 0.8% winning chances and sacrifice not even 1-1/2 equity to Q's top choice. Exchange 5 keeping EN wins 42.6%. This sims 8th, wins 41.8%, and concedes 1.1 equity.
>Rob_Robinsky: IM I6 MI. +23 33
>Jim_Burlant: FHIOSTV 11E FIV. +20 35
#note So blinded by the presence of the FV combo that I didn't even see SHIFT 12H. Shockingly, despite giving up 21 scoreboard points to SHIFT 12H, Q agrees; both the 2-ply sim and Championship Player say this is best. Nothing else worth considering besides this or SHIFT according to the duck.
>Rob_Robinsky: DEEG 12C GEED +20 53
>Jim_Burlant: HHIOSTZ 13C OH +21 56
#note C9 THIGH is best per Q. That said, this is a strong choice; it concedes barely 2 equity and 1% winning chances to THIGH at roughly 1100 2-ply iterations. Despite conceding 5 scoreboard points to THIGH, the strength of this play is its defense. While THIGH opens 2 columns where he can play a 7, this choice limits him; if he doesn't have an S (which I do), he's going to be hard-pressed to score. And even if he does score, he's going to have to open up some juicy through lines for me. I'm 52% to win.
>Rob_Robinsky: ABKLRWY -ABK +0 53
>Jim_Burlant: BHIISTZ 14A BIT +14 70
#note Play had been limited to the southwest quadrant over the last few turns, resulting in my becoming hyper-focused on this area; I was now blind to the board. The only other play I saw was ZIT 14A, and I didn't like that because it would give back way too much. The only thing that can be said for this choice is that it's better than ZIT. As I entered this rack into Quackle, looking at my scoresheet I didn't have to run the sim to know the obvious play was J2 ZITIS. If I didn't want to open up the northeast quadrant with ZITIS, F10 BIDI would have been a passable alternative. But ZITIS for 43 still should have been the play. This is dreadful.
>Rob_Robinsky: DKO F10 K..DO +23 76
#note And when you're having the tournament of your life (like I was in this nationals), you catch breaks like this. My play of BIT was absolutely abysmal and if there were any justice he would have had EIJ in his rack this turn. Fortunately for me, Rob was struggling with poor tiles and couldn't mete out any punishment.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEHISZ 15F SEIZED +60 130
#note I initially considered SIZE 15F, leaving DEH so I could play EDH 15A on the next turn. Then I started second-guessing: SIZE gave back easy back hooks for bingos, what would I do with EDH if he took out 15A?, etc. Then I saw SEIZE leaving DH, but wondered what would happen if I didn't draw an E? Ultimately, I figured I could do worse than to play for 60 and set up the H for the next turn. Q says I had it backwards: while this is the runner up according to both the sim and Championship Player, Q says EDH was the play, and this choice loses 8 equity; it loses 3 when simmed against an inferred AES. In retrospect, Quackle may be right. Though it's counterintuitive to let him hit something on row 15 when I can score 60 there with SEIZED, EDH still scores 44. And, assuming he takes out row 15 after EDH, given this pool any number of probable 3-tile draws will enable me to reply at 12H for at least 47 points.
>Rob_Robinsky: ALP 14J PAL +24 100
>Jim_Burlant: HJNTTVY M12 THY +27 157
#note Not the draw I was expecting; for this game, SEIZED certainly worked out well. Whatever. Not much else to do with this consonant overload. This is best; the only other options that aren't exchanges are 15B THY and G4 NTH.
>Rob_Robinsky: IN 15A IN +20 120
>Jim_Burlant: AJNRTTV 13I JAR +27 184
#note Q prefers VAT in the same location by roughly 5 points. While keeping 4 unique tiles is better than keeping dupes, I didn't think it was worth it to sacrifice 8 scoreboard points to keep JNRT on this board.
>Rob_Robinsky: NSU J5 NUS +24 144
>Jim_Burlant: AGNNTTV 4G VANG +14 198
#note Q prefers the 4I placement by roughly 4-1/2 points and says 4I wins 73% to this plays's 70. I like this for the defensive posture, as it doesn't open any easy bingo lines.
>Rob_Robinsky: AR I10 AR +15 159
>Jim_Burlant: ?NOORTT L6 TORTONi +66 264
#note Best bingo - wins just shy of 95%. Only other bingo options are N6 TORTONi and N6 aRNOTTO.
>Rob_Robinsky: OUX 8L .OUX +33 192
>Jim_Burlant: EIMORTW J9 OW +27 291
#note On this board, there aren't many choices. This is best - nothing else within 7 points in a 400-iteration sim.
>Rob_Robinsky: ARY H1 RAY. +21 213
#note Take a good look at what Rob is doing. While some of this is dictated by what's in his rack and the relatively closed nature of this board, Rob has taken the last couple of turns to open lines in different areas of the board. Despite my leading by 78 points, Rob is still alive because of this tactic, and this game is hardly a done deal. Very smart play by him.
>Jim_Burlant: CEEIMRT O4 CIME. +19 310
#note I need to block his most lucrative lines and hopefully turn tiles and score decently while doing so. EM I1 blocks rows 1 and 2 (his most probable threats), but it only scores 10 and only turns 2 tiles. With 20 tiles in the bag, S? unseen, and bingo lines still available down the N and O columns even if I do take out rows 1 and 2, my 78-point lead isn't big enough for me to sacrifice turnover and points for a play like that. With a 2-bingo lead I make that play, but not with a 78-point lead. While I otherwise don't have a viable play to clamp down rows 1 and 2, there's still the U in ROUX. I chose CIME(X) because it maximized turnover (essential with an unseen blank) and maximized score. It also eliminated the possibility of bingos ending in OUS or OUT. Also - while a bingo down the O column wasn't as likely as a bingo on rows 1 or 2, I thought there might be some bingos available that did play in this column. A closer look at the remaining pool in Zyzzyva reveals a handful of bingos are available (XENOLITH, XYLOCARP, XEROSERE). Q verifies that this is the best option of a mediocre lot.
>Rob_Robinsky: ?AELLOS 1A SALLOwE. +74 287
#note Rob's back up to not quite 14% winning chances, but my puzzlement over how to handle my next rack increases his winning chances that much more.
>Jim_Burlant: CELRSTU -LU +0 310
#note A real head-scratcher, this. I rejected RUSE K2 because I thought that it could give back 30+ if he hit FROWN/FRENA, and that I wouldn't be able to counter his 2J play with anything in my remaining CLT. Since CLUSTER didn't play, I would have normally fished off LU. But the only LU dump, N8 ULU, would have been reckless. The only safe plays (E11 FEEL, which I didn't see, or EQUINES, or T(A)LC) still addled me with the U, and anything else gave back way more than it got and potentially allowed him to tie the game. Q verifies that outside of (EQUINE)S, (FE)EL for 17, and B1 ACUTER, and RUSE, nothing else was available for more than 8 points. Given that I felt the leave and/or board position were so bad with anything I could put down, I felt the exchange was the best course and that I'd force him to open and give me places to score. Q doesn't like this at all. Championship Player likes E11 FEEL, B1 ACUTER, and B1 AL. The sim likes B1 AL and doesn't like ACUTER or FEEL. Given the pool, I can understand why Q would tell me not to hold my E. But given how the draw panned out, I might have lost this game had I played it off.
>Rob_Robinsky: AE G3 A.E +13 300
>Jim_Burlant: CEIRSTW 5C TWIC. +20 330
#note The sim wants me to fish with 7L OW, and the CEIRST leave makes that a tempting proposition. Championship Player takes a different tack, wanting me to play 5C WRITE. I wanted to hasten the end of the game and score enough that he couldn't win without bingoing - and add a little more resistance. Championship player says this is a very strong choice, finishing up as a bronze medalist to WRITE.
>Rob_Robinsky: AAL 4C AAL +20 320
>Jim_Burlant: BENPRST 3A BEST +24 354
#note Nerves were getting to me, and I fumbled a bit here. Apparently TERN in the same location is best, and this doesn't make Championship Player's radar. But, given the vowel overload in his rack it gets the job done. Another interesting option I didn't see was ARPENTS 2H. ARPENTS wins by 8 more points than this choice. Regardless, I was still very glad to pull this one out. Nice comeback by Rob - he just got killed with the vowel overloads at the end.
>Rob_Robinsky: EEFIORU M7 R.OF +20 340
>Jim_Burlant: NPR 14E N.R +5 359
>Rob_Robinsky: EEIU 3G ..E +10 350
>Jim_Burlant: P 13B P.. +13 372
>Jim_Burlant: (EIU) +6 378
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